Computational Modeling Of The Covid-19 Disease: Numerical Ode Analysis With R Programming


Book Description

The book is intended for readers who are interested in learning about the use of computer-based modelling of the COVID-19 disease. It provides a basic introduction to a five-ordinary differential equation (ODE) model by providing a complete statement of the model, including a detailed discussion of the ODEs, initial conditions and parameters, followed by a line-by-line explanation of a set of R routines (R is a quality, scientific programming system readily available from the Internet). The reader can access and execute these routines without having to first study numerical algorithms and computer coding (programming) and can perform numerical experimentation with the model on modest computers.




Mathematical Epidemiology


Book Description

Based on lecture notes of two summer schools with a mixed audience from mathematical sciences, epidemiology and public health, this volume offers a comprehensive introduction to basic ideas and techniques in modeling infectious diseases, for the comparison of strategies to plan for an anticipated epidemic or pandemic, and to deal with a disease outbreak in real time. It covers detailed case studies for diseases including pandemic influenza, West Nile virus, and childhood diseases. Models for other diseases including Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome, fox rabies, and sexually transmitted infections are included as applications. Its chapters are coherent and complementary independent units. In order to accustom students to look at the current literature and to experience different perspectives, no attempt has been made to achieve united writing style or unified notation. Notes on some mathematical background (calculus, matrix algebra, differential equations, and probability) have been prepared and may be downloaded at the web site of the Centre for Disease Modeling (www.cdm.yorku.ca).




Design and Analysis of Vaccine Studies


Book Description

As well as being a reference for the design, analysis, and interpretation of vaccine studies, the text covers all design and analysis stages, from vaccine development to post-licensure surveillance, presenting likelihood, frequentists, and Bayesian approaches.




The Rules of Contagion


Book Description

An Observer Book of the Year A Times Science Book of the Year A New Statesman Book of the Year A Financial Times Science Book of the Year 'Astonishingly bold' Daily Mail 'It is hard to imagine a more timely book ... much of the modern world will make more sense having read it.' The Times We live in a world that's more interconnected than ever before. Our lives are shaped by outbreaks - of disease, of misinformation, even of violence - that appear, spread and fade away with bewildering speed. To understand them, we need to learn the hidden laws that govern them. From 'superspreaders' who might spark a pandemic or bring down a financial system to the social dynamics that make loneliness catch on, The Rules of Contagion offers compelling insights into human behaviour and explains how we can get better at predicting what happens next. Along the way, Adam Kucharski explores how innovations spread through friendship networks, what links computer viruses with folk stories - and why the most useful predictions aren't necessarily the ones that come true. Now revised and updated with content on Covid-19.




Learning from SARS


Book Description

The emergence of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) in late 2002 and 2003 challenged the global public health community to confront a novel epidemic that spread rapidly from its origins in southern China until it had reached more than 25 other countries within a matter of months. In addition to the number of patients infected with the SARS virus, the disease had profound economic and political repercussions in many of the affected regions. Recent reports of isolated new SARS cases and a fear that the disease could reemerge and spread have put public health officials on high alert for any indications of possible new outbreaks. This report examines the response to SARS by public health systems in individual countries, the biology of the SARS coronavirus and related coronaviruses in animals, the economic and political fallout of the SARS epidemic, quarantine law and other public health measures that apply to combating infectious diseases, and the role of international organizations and scientific cooperation in halting the spread of SARS. The report provides an illuminating survey of findings from the epidemic, along with an assessment of what might be needed in order to contain any future outbreaks of SARS or other emerging infections.




Modeling Infectious Diseases in Humans and Animals


Book Description

For epidemiologists, evolutionary biologists, and health-care professionals, real-time and predictive modeling of infectious disease is of growing importance. This book provides a timely and comprehensive introduction to the modeling of infectious diseases in humans and animals, focusing on recent developments as well as more traditional approaches. Matt Keeling and Pejman Rohani move from modeling with simple differential equations to more recent, complex models, where spatial structure, seasonal "forcing," or stochasticity influence the dynamics, and where computer simulation needs to be used to generate theory. In each of the eight chapters, they deal with a specific modeling approach or set of techniques designed to capture a particular biological factor. They illustrate the methodology used with examples from recent research literature on human and infectious disease modeling, showing how such techniques can be used in practice. Diseases considered include BSE, foot-and-mouth, HIV, measles, rubella, smallpox, and West Nile virus, among others. Particular attention is given throughout the book to the development of practical models, useful both as predictive tools and as a means to understand fundamental epidemiological processes. To emphasize this approach, the last chapter is dedicated to modeling and understanding the control of diseases through vaccination, quarantine, or culling. Comprehensive, practical introduction to infectious disease modeling Builds from simple to complex predictive models Models and methodology fully supported by examples drawn from research literature Practical models aid students' understanding of fundamental epidemiological processes For many of the models presented, the authors provide accompanying programs written in Java, C, Fortran, and MATLAB In-depth treatment of role of modeling in understanding disease control




Coronavirus Disease - COVID-19


Book Description

In December 2019, the world witnessed the occurrence of a new coronavirus to humanity. The disease spread quickly and became known as a pandemic globally, affecting both society and the health care system, both the elderly and young groups of people, and both the men’s and women’s groups. It was a universal challenge that immediately caused a surge in scientific research. Be a part of a world rising in fighting against the pandemic, the Coronavirus Disease - COVID-19 was depicted in the early days of the pandemic, but updated by more than 200 scientists and clinicians to include many facets of this new infectious pandemic, including i, characteristics, ecology, and evolution of coronaviruses; ii, epidemiology, genetics, and pathogenesis (immune responses and oxidative stress) of the disease; iii, diagnosis, prognosis, and clinical manifestations of the disease in pediatrics, geriatrics, pregnant women, and neonates; iv, challenges of co-occurring the disease with tropical infections, cardiovascular diseases, hypertension, and cancer and to the settings of dentistry, hematology, ophthalmology, and pharmacy; v, transmission, prevention, and potential treatments, ranging from supportive ventilator support and nutrition therapy to potential virus- and host-based therapies, immune-based therapies, photobiomodulation, antiviral photodynamic therapy, and vaccines; vi, the resulting consequences on social lives, mental health, education, tourism industry and economy; and vii, multimodal approaches to solve the problem by bioinformatic methods, innovation and ingenuity, globalization, social and scientific networking, interdisciplinary approaches, and art integration. We are approaching December 2020 and the still presence of COVID-19, asking us to call it COVID (without 19).




Evidence-Based Practice for Public Health Emergency Preparedness and Response


Book Description

When communities face complex public health emergencies, state local, tribal, and territorial public health agencies must make difficult decisions regarding how to effectively respond. The public health emergency preparedness and response (PHEPR) system, with its multifaceted mission to prevent, protect against, quickly respond to, and recover from public health emergencies, is inherently complex and encompasses policies, organizations, and programs. Since the events of September 11, 2001, the United States has invested billions of dollars and immeasurable amounts of human capital to develop and enhance public health emergency preparedness and infrastructure to respond to a wide range of public health threats, including infectious diseases, natural disasters, and chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear events. Despite the investments in research and the growing body of empirical literature on a range of preparedness and response capabilities and functions, there has been no national-level, comprehensive review and grading of evidence for public health emergency preparedness and response practices comparable to those utilized in medicine and other public health fields. Evidence-Based Practice for Public Health Emergency Preparedness and Response reviews the state of the evidence on PHEPR practices and the improvements necessary to move the field forward and to strengthen the PHEPR system. This publication evaluates PHEPR evidence to understand the balance of benefits and harms of PHEPR practices, with a focus on four main areas of PHEPR: engagement with and training of community-based partners to improve the outcomes of at-risk populations after public health emergencies; activation of a public health emergency operations center; communication of public health alerts and guidance to technical audiences during a public health emergency; and implementation of quarantine to reduce the spread of contagious illness.




Infectious Diseases of Humans


Book Description

This book deals with infectious diseases -- viral, bacterial, protozoan and helminth -- in terms of the dynamics of their interaction with host populations. The book combines mathematical models with extensive use of epidemiological and other data. This analytic framework is highly useful for the evaluation of public health strategies aimed at controlling or eradicating particular infections. Such a framework is increasingly important in light of the widespread concern for primary health care programs aimed at such diseases as measles, malaria, river blindness, sleeping sickness, and schistosomiasis, and the advent of AIDS/HIV and other emerging viruses. Throughout the book, the mathematics is used as a tool for thinking clearly about fundamental and applied problems having to do with infectious diseases. The book is divided into two parts, one dealing with microparasites (viruses, bacteria and protozoans) and the other with macroparasites (helminths and parasitic arthropods). Each part begins with simple models, developed in a biologically intuitive way, and then goes on to develop more complicated and realistic models as tools for public health planning. The book synthesizes previous work in this rapidly growing field (much of which is scattered between the ecological and the medical literature) with a good deal of new material.




Modeling and Dynamics of Infectious Diseases


Book Description

This book provides a systematic introduction to the fundamental methods and techniques and the frontiers of ? along with many new ideas and results on ? infectious disease modeling, parameter estimation and transmission dynamics. It provides complementary approaches, from deterministic to statistical to network modeling; and it seeks viewpoints of the same issues from different angles, from mathematical modeling to statistical analysis to computer simulations and finally to concrete applications.