Do Volatility Determinants Vary across Futures Contracts? Insights from a Smoothed Bayesian Estimator


Book Description

We apply a new Bayesian approach to multiple-contract futures data. It allows the volatility of futures prices to depend upon physical inventories and the contract's time to delivery - and it allows those parametric effects to vary over time. We find a time-varying negative relationship between lumber inventories and lumber futures price volatility. The Bayesian approach leads to different conclusions regarding the size of the inventory effect than does the standard method of parametric restrictions across contracts. The inventory effect is smaller for the most recent contracts, possibly due to increasing inventories over time. In contrast, the Bayesian approach does not lead to substantively different conclusions about the time-to-delivery effect than do traditional frequentist methods.




Issues in Investments and Investing: 2011 Edition


Book Description

Issues in Investments and Investing / 2011 Edition is a ScholarlyBrief™ that delivers timely, authoritative, comprehensive, and specialized information about Investments and Investing in a concise format. The editors have built Issues in Investments and Investing: 2011 Edition on the vast information databases of ScholarlyNews.™ You can expect the information about Investments and Investing in this eBook to be deeper than what you can access anywhere else, as well as consistently reliable, authoritative, informed, and relevant. The content of Issues in Investments and Investing: 2011 Edition has been produced by the world’s leading scientists, engineers, analysts, research institutions, and companies. All of the content is from peer-reviewed sources, and all of it is written, assembled, and edited by the editors at ScholarlyEditions™ and available exclusively from us. You now have a source you can cite with authority, confidence, and credibility. More information is available at http://www.ScholarlyEditions.com/.




Volatility and Correlation


Book Description

In Volatility and Correlation 2nd edition: The Perfect Hedger and the Fox, Rebonato looks at derivatives pricing from the angle of volatility and correlation. With both practical and theoretical applications, this is a thorough update of the highly successful Volatility & Correlation – with over 80% new or fully reworked material and is a must have both for practitioners and for students. The new and updated material includes a critical examination of the ‘perfect-replication’ approach to derivatives pricing, with special attention given to exotic options; a thorough analysis of the role of quadratic variation in derivatives pricing and hedging; a discussion of the informational efficiency of markets in commonly-used calibration and hedging practices. Treatment of new models including Variance Gamma, displaced diffusion, stochastic volatility for interest-rate smiles and equity/FX options. The book is split into four parts. Part I deals with a Black world without smiles, sets out the author’s ‘philosophical’ approach and covers deterministic volatility. Part II looks at smiles in equity and FX worlds. It begins with a review of relevant empirical information about smiles, and provides coverage of local-stochastic-volatility, general-stochastic-volatility, jump-diffusion and Variance-Gamma processes. Part II concludes with an important chapter that discusses if and to what extent one can dispense with an explicit specification of a model, and can directly prescribe the dynamics of the smile surface. Part III focusses on interest rates when the volatility is deterministic. Part IV extends this setting in order to account for smiles in a financially motivated and computationally tractable manner. In this final part the author deals with CEV processes, with diffusive stochastic volatility and with Markov-chain processes. Praise for the First Edition: “In this book, Dr Rebonato brings his penetrating eye to bear on option pricing and hedging.... The book is a must-read for those who already know the basics of options and are looking for an edge in applying the more sophisticated approaches that have recently been developed.” —Professor Ian Cooper, London Business School “Volatility and correlation are at the very core of all option pricing and hedging. In this book, Riccardo Rebonato presents the subject in his characteristically elegant and simple fashion...A rare combination of intellectual insight and practical common sense.” —Anthony Neuberger, London Business School




Food Price Volatility and Its Implications for Food Security and Policy


Book Description

This book provides fresh insights into concepts, methods and new research findings on the causes of excessive food price volatility. It also discusses the implications for food security and policy responses to mitigate excessive volatility. The approaches applied by the contributors range from on-the-ground surveys, to panel econometrics and innovative high-frequency time series analysis as well as computational economics methods. It offers policy analysts and decision-makers guidance on dealing with extreme volatility.




Modern Finance And Risk Management: Festschrift In Honour Of Hermann Locarek-junge


Book Description

Modern Finance and Risk Management is dedicated to our colleague, academic mentor, and adviser Professor Hermann Locarek-Junge. During his academic career, Hermann Locarek-Junge published several important contributions to the field of risk management and portfolio management and served as the chairman and board member of the German Finance Association (DGF) and the Data Science Society (Gesellschaft für Klassifikation).A short foreword by the mentors of Hermann Locarek-Junge and an introduction by the editors mark the beginning of the Festschrift. The first section on Modern Finance includes chapters on asset management, entrepreneurship, and behavioural finance. The second section on Modern Risk Management contains seven contributions covering considerations of risk measurement, risk management, and regulation. Finally, the third section includes topics on commodities and energy finance.This Festschrift comprises 20 original contributions of notable scholars in finance who have worked with Hermann Locarek-Junge over the last four decades. Due to numerous connections to practice and applications, Modern Finance and Risk Management is relevant and attractive not only to academics and researchers but also to practitioners in industry and banking.




Economics of Futures Trading: For Commercial and Personal Profit


Book Description

Winner of the Award for Publication of Enduring Quality from the American Agricultural Economics Association The classic and must-have book on the commodity futures market For decades, Economics of Futures Trading has been known as “the bible” of the commodity futures market. This updated edition provides the foundation for everything you need to know in commodity basics and the economics of futures trading. In this comprehensive and essential guide, Professor Hieronymus reveals secrets and wisdom attained from decades of hands-on experience and research in the field. His timeless insight provides the fundamentals necessary for trading in pursuit of profits–whether you are new to the world of commodity trading or experienced. Dr. Hieronymus’ witty and engaging writing ushers you into the world of trading so you can attain success in these ever-growing markets. The underlying principles presented in this classic remain unchanged, and your understanding of all the complex concepts in futures trading will be enhanced, such as: Operation and performance of the commodity market. Hedging and speculation. Historical developments. And much more. This remains the ultimate guide and go-to resource for anyone interested in the operation of commodity markets. Set yourself up for success as you navigate the complexity of the market by first gleaning from a gold mine of insight offered in this easy-to-digest classic.




The Economics of Food Price Volatility


Book Description

"The conference was organized by the three editors of this book and took place on August 15-16, 2012 in Seattle."--Preface.




Multi-Asset Risk Modeling


Book Description

Multi-Asset Risk Modeling describes, in a single volume, the latest and most advanced risk modeling techniques for equities, debt, fixed income, futures and derivatives, commodities, and foreign exchange, as well as advanced algorithmic and electronic risk management. Beginning with the fundamentals of risk mathematics and quantitative risk analysis, the book moves on to discuss the laws in standard models that contributed to the 2008 financial crisis and talks about current and future banking regulation. Importantly, it also explores algorithmic trading, which currently receives sparse attention in the literature. By giving coherent recommendations about which statistical models to use for which asset class, this book makes a real contribution to the sciences of portfolio management and risk management. Covers all asset classes Provides mathematical theoretical explanations of risk as well as practical examples with empirical data Includes sections on equity risk modeling, futures and derivatives, credit markets, foreign exchange, and commodities




Handbook of Economic Forecasting


Book Description

The highly prized ability to make financial plans with some certainty about the future comes from the core fields of economics. In recent years the availability of more data, analytical tools of greater precision, and ex post studies of business decisions have increased demand for information about economic forecasting. Volumes 2A and 2B, which follows Nobel laureate Clive Granger's Volume 1 (2006), concentrate on two major subjects. Volume 2A covers innovations in methodologies, specifically macroforecasting and forecasting financial variables. Volume 2B investigates commercial applications, with sections on forecasters' objectives and methodologies. Experts provide surveys of a large range of literature scattered across applied and theoretical statistics journals as well as econometrics and empirical economics journals. The Handbook of Economic Forecasting Volumes 2A and 2B provide a unique compilation of chapters giving a coherent overview of forecasting theory and applications in one place and with up-to-date accounts of all major conceptual issues. Focuses on innovation in economic forecasting via industry applications Presents coherent summaries of subjects in economic forecasting that stretch from methodologies to applications Makes details about economic forecasting accessible to scholars in fields outside economics




Understanding Futures Markets


Book Description

This edition covers all of the historical developments of the futures market in a manner accessible to a wide range of readers and offers an unparalleled breadth and depth of coverage