Does Earnings Guidance Affect Market Returns? The Nature and Information Content of Aggregate Earnings Guidance


Book Description

We investigate whether earnings guidance affects aggregate stock returns through its effects on expectations about overall earnings performance and/or aggregate expected returns. We find that aggregate guidance, especially relative levels of quarterly downward guidance, is associated with analyst- and time-series-based measures of aggregate earnings news. We find more modest evidence that guidance, again, largely downward guidance, is associated with market returns - market returns appear to respond to guidance toward the end of each calendar quarter, when most earnings preannouncements are released, and there is some evidence that firm-level guidance affects market returns in short windows around its release.




Aggregate Earnings, Stock Market Returns and Macroeconomic Activity


Book Description

Anilowski, Feng and Skinner (Journal of Accounting and Economics, 2006, this issue) examine the relationship between aggregate earnings guidance, aggregate earnings news and market returns. They provide evidence that changes in aggregate proportions of downward or upward earnings guidance are associated with aggregate earnings news and weakly associated with market returns. However, the study is unable to establish causality or the precise nature of the relationship between aggregate earnings guidance and market returns. To better understand the relationship, this paper analyses the relation between aggregate earnings, stock market returns and the macroeconomy. I empirically document that aggregate earnings primarily contain information about future inflation. This inflation information in aggregate earnings causes aggregate earnings to be negatively correlated with stock returns. The paper concludes with suggestions for future research.




Is Guidance a Macro Factor? the Nature and Information Content of Aggregate Earnings Guidance


Book Description

Although a great deal of research documents the information content of management earnings forecasts at the firm level, there is little research on the informativeness of aggregate earnings guidance. We argue that aggregate earnings guidance is potentially informative at the market/economy level through its effects on expectations about market-level expected future cash flows and expected returns. We find that aggregate guidance, especially relative levels of quarterly downward guidance, is associated with analyst- and time-series-based measures of aggregate earnings news. We also find some evidence that guidance - again, largely downward guidance - is associated with market returns.




The End of Accounting and the Path Forward for Investors and Managers


Book Description

An innovative new valuation framework with truly useful economic indicators The End of Accounting and the Path Forward for Investors and Managers shows how the ubiquitous financial reports have become useless in capital market decisions and lays out an actionable alternative. Based on a comprehensive, large-sample empirical analysis, this book reports financial documents' continuous deterioration in relevance to investors' decisions. An enlightening discussion details the reasons why accounting is losing relevance in today's market, backed by numerous examples with real-world impact. Beyond simply identifying the problem, this report offers a solution—the Value Creation Report—and demonstrates its utility in key industries. New indicators focus on strategy and execution to identify and evaluate a company's true value-creating resources for a more up-to-date approach to critical investment decision-making. While entire industries have come to rely on financial reports for vital information, these documents are flawed and insufficient when it comes to the way investors and lenders work in the current economic climate. This book demonstrates an alternative, giving you a new framework for more informed decision making. Discover a new, comprehensive system of economic indicators Focus on strategic, value-creating resources in company valuation Learn how traditional financial documents are quickly losing their utility Find a path forward with actionable, up-to-date information Major corporate decisions, such as restructuring and M&A, are predicated on financial indicators of profitability and asset/liabilities values. These documents move mountains, so what happens if they're based on faulty indicators that fail to show the true value of the company? The End of Accounting and the Path Forward for Investors and Managers shows you the reality and offers a new blueprint for more accurate valuation.




Winning Investors Over


Book Description

A guide to dealing with Wall Street in order to boost a company's earnings and stock price features advice for executives on such topics as addressing investors' concerns and maintaining credibility on Wall Street.




Guidance, Guidance and Guidance


Book Description

This dissertation proposes and examines three research questions on quarterly earnings guidance on its discontinuity and revival. In particular, it examines the impact of corporate governance on a firm's decision to stop quarterly earnings guidance, the impact of its discontinuity on a firm's investment decisions, and why a firm restarts providing quarterly earnings guidance. Corporate governance is measured by board independence, institutional ownership, types of institutional ownership and CEOs compensation. A firm's long term investments are measured by capital and Research and Development (R & D) expenditure. Theories of firm performance and earnings expectation management are used to explain a firm's decision to restart. Using an industry-year-quarter matched sample of 1610 firms (the STOPPERS and the MAINTAINERS) from 2001 to 2006, this study finds that a firm is more likely to stop quarterly earnings guidance when its board is more independent, institution ownership is lower, the dedicate institution ownership is higher and the level of cash proportion of CEOs compensation is higher. It also finds a firm is more likely to stop when both past and expected future earnings performances are poorer or more difficult to predict or the management is more optimistic or litigation risk is lower. Second, this study finds that the STOPPERS have higher levels of capital expenditure and R & D expenditure in the subsequence years following the stop event (one and two years). The change levels of the STOPPERS are higher than that of the MAINTAINERS. It implies that the quarterly earnings guidance has adverse impact on firm's long term investments. Third, using an industry-year-quarter matched sample of 342 firms (the RESUMERS and the NONRESUMERS) from 2004 to 2008, it finds that a firm is more likely to restart when its earnings and market return improve, or when the prevailing market expectations are higher to beat/meet. In addition, it finds that the R & D expenditure of the RESUMERS are higher than that of the NONRESUMERS in the three years before the restart event, which implies that the RESUMERS increase R & D and capital expenditure after the stoppage, and improve the firm performance.







The Party's Over


Book Description

This paper shows that an important link between investor sentiment and firm overvaluation is optimistic earnings expectations, and that management earnings guidance aids in resolving sentiment-driven overvaluation. Using the firm characteristics identified by Baker and Wurgler (2006), we find that most of the negative returns to uncertain firms in months following high sentiment periods fall within the three-day window around management earnings guidance issuance. Comparisons of guidance months to non-guidance months show that guidance issuance affects the magnitude and not just the daily distribution of negative returns. There is also some evidence of negative returns around earnings announcements for firms that previously issued guidance, suggesting that guidance does not entirely correct optimistic earnings expectations. To provide additional insight into the strength of the guidance effect, we show that the market reacts more strongly to surprises and particularly negative surprises following high sentiment periods. Finally, firms with higher transient institutional ownership are less likely to guide and their guidance is less likely to contain bad news following high sentiment periods, indicating that managers with a short-term focus are hesitant to correct optimistic market expectations.




Earnings Guidance and Market Uncertainty


Book Description

We study the effect of disclosure on uncertainty by examining how management earnings forecasts affect stock market volatility. Using implied volatilities from exchange-traded options prices, we find that management earnings forecasts, on average, increase short-term volatility. This effect is attributable to forecasts that convey bad news, especially when firms release forecasts sporadically (as opposed to on a routine basis). In the longer run, market uncertainty declines after earnings are announced regardless of whether there is a preceding earnings forecast. This decline is mitigated when the firm issues a forecast that conveys negative news.




The Information Content of Guidance and Earnings


Book Description

I compare the information content of quarterly earnings guidance and quarterly earnings by examining their associations with current and future stock returns when the two signals are bundled at earnings announcements. At the bundled announcement, I find a significantly stronger association between announcement returns and guidance news. From the day after the bundled announcement through the next earnings announcement, both signals generate abnormal return drifts of about 200 basis points. However, the timing of the post-announcement returns differs considerably. For guidance, about 50% of the post-announcement drift occurs at the next earnings announcement. In contrast, for earnings, about 20% of the preceding drift reverses at the next earnings announcement. Investor ignorance of the drift following guidance news coupled with a fixation on post-earnings announcement drift potentially explains this surprising difference in the timing of the post-announcement returns. Overall, this study indicates that bundled quarterly earnings guidance contains more information than quarterly earnings and that investors incorrectly overweight the earnings news and underweight the guidance news during the post-announcement period until the next earnings announcement.