Policy Responses to Capital Flows in Emerging Markets


Book Description

Staff Discussion Notes showcase the latest policy-related analysis and research being developed by individual IMF staff and are published to elicit comment and to further debate. These papers are generally brief and written in nontechnical language, and so are aimed at a broad audience interested in economic policy issues. This Web-only series replaced Staff Position Notes in January 2011.




Emerging Market Real Estate Investment


Book Description

Emerging markets in real estate investing have been an increasing focus for institutional real estate investors worldwide. Part of the Fabozzi series, this book is an insightful overview of international real estate focusing on three of the BRICs: China, India, and Brazil. The authors provide a framework for thinking about these dynamic markets characterized by youthful populations, extraordinary demand, capital inefficiency, and aspiration. Also discussed are the sociopolitical issues, policy, and entry/exit strategies. Notably, the book makes a sanguine assessment of the risks and opportunities of alternative strategies in each country.




Capital Flows at Risk: Taming the Ebbs and Flows


Book Description

The volatility of capital flows to emerging markets continues to pose challenges to policymakers. In this paper, we propose a new framework to answer critical policy questions: What policies and policy frameworks are most effective in dampening sharp capital flow movements in response to global shocks? What are the near- versus medium-term trade-offs of different policies? We tackle these questions using a quantile regression framework to predict the entire future probability distribution of capital flows to emerging markets, based on current domestic structural characteristics, policies, and global financial conditions. This new approach allows policymakers to quantify capital flows risks and evaluate policy tools to mitigate them, thus building the foundation of a risk management framework for capital flows.




Emerging Market Portfolio Flows


Book Description

Portfolio flows to emerging markets (EMs) tend to be correlated. A possible explanation is the role global benchmarks play in allocating capital internationally, the so-called “benchmark effect.” This paper finds that benchmark-driven investors indeed play a large role in a key segment of the market—the EM local currency government bond market—, accounting for more than one third of total foreign holdings as of end-2014. We find that the prominence of these investors declined somewhat after the May 2013 taper tantrum, but remain high. This distinction is important in understanding the drivers of EM capital flows and their sensitivity to different types of shocks. In particular, a high share of benchmark-driven investors may result in capital flows that are more sensitive to global shocks and less sensitive to country factors.




Regaining Global Stability After the Financial Crisis


Book Description

The prosperity and stability of any economic structure is reliant upon a foundation of secure systems that regulate the movement of money across the globe. These structures have become an integral part of contemporary society by reducing monetary risk and increasing financial security. Regaining Global Stability After the Financial Crisis is a critical scholarly publication that examines the after-effects of the economic slowdown and the steps that have been taken to overcome the consequences of the slowdown as well as strategies to reduce its impact on economies and societies. Highlighting a wide range of topics including economic convergence, risk management, and public policy for financial stability, this book is geared toward academicians, practitioners, students, managers, and professionals in the financial sector seeking current research on regaining a sense of safety and security after a time of economic crisis.




Gross Private Capital Flows to Emerging Markets


Book Description

This paper assesses empirically the key drivers of private capital flows to a large sample of emerging market economies in the last decade. It analyzes the effect of the global financial cycle, measured by the VIX, on capital flows and investigates the role of fundamentals and country characteristics in mitigating or amplifying its effect. Using interaction models, we find the effect of the VIX to be non-linear. For low levels of the VIX, capital flows are driven by fundamental factors. During periods of stress, the VIX becomes the dominant driver of capital flows while other determinants, with the exception of interest rate differentials, lose statistical significance. Our results also suggest that the effect of global financial conditions on gross private capital flows increases with the host country’s level of financial sector development. Finally, our results imply that countries cannot fully insulate themselves from global financial shocks, unless creating a fragmented global financial system.




International Capital Flows


Book Description

Recent changes in technology, along with the opening up of many regions previously closed to investment, have led to explosive growth in the international movement of capital. Flows from foreign direct investment and debt and equity financing can bring countries substantial gains by augmenting local savings and by improving technology and incentives. Investing companies acquire market access, lower cost inputs, and opportunities for profitable introductions of production methods in the countries where they invest. But, as was underscored recently by the economic and financial crises in several Asian countries, capital flows can also bring risks. Although there is no simple explanation of the currency crisis in Asia, it is clear that fixed exchange rates and chronic deficits increased the likelihood of a breakdown. Similarly, during the 1970s, the United States and other industrial countries loaned OPEC surpluses to borrowers in Latin America. But when the U.S. Federal Reserve raised interest rates to control soaring inflation, the result was a widespread debt moratorium in Latin America as many countries throughout the region struggled to pay the high interest on their foreign loans. International Capital Flows contains recent work by eminent scholars and practitioners on the experience of capital flows to Latin America, Asia, and eastern Europe. These papers discuss the role of banks, equity markets, and foreign direct investment in international capital flows, and the risks that investors and others face with these transactions. By focusing on capital flows' productivity and determinants, and the policy issues they raise, this collection is a valuable resource for economists, policymakers, and financial market participants.




Cracking the Emerging Markets Enigma


Book Description

Cracking the Emerging Markets Enigma outlines a rigorous, comprehensive, and practical framework for evaluating the opportunities and, more importantly, the risks of investing in emerging markets. Built on a foundation of sound research on foreign direct and portfolio capital flows, Andrew Karolyi's proposed system of evaluation incorporates multiple dimensions of the potential risks faced by prospective investors in an empirically coherent framework.




Opportunities in Emerging Markets


Book Description

The practical guide to investing in emerging markets Though potentially risky, investing in emerging markets can offer extremely attractive returns. Opportunities in Emerging Markets offers practical advice for investors based on the real life experiences—both positive and negative—of practitioners, pioneer investors, and local heroes with experience in frontier markets. Exploring how every developing market has its own unique regional cultures and social structures that change the way investors invest, and must be understood in order to make wise investments, the book combines standard approaches to investing with the exigencies of frontier markets to create an invaluable framework for success. A collection of useful ideas that investors—institutions, general partners, limited partners, or shareholders—can draw upon when investing money in emerging markets, the book includes essential information on one of the most attractive opportunities for beating traditional markets and investments. If access, downside, and predictability can be managed, there's a great deal of money to be made in emerging markets, and this book shows how. Both investors and investment managers need to understand fundamental success factors, real framework conditions, and hidden pitfall and in Opportunities in Emerging Markets, author Gordian Gaeta analyses these intricacies in depth. Gives investors of all kinds the information they need to succeed in emerging markets Incorporates real life experiences—both good and bad—to help readers avoid common mistakes and maximize their returns Includes interviews with Mark Mobius, Jim Rogers, Marc Faber, and other leading names in the emerging markets sector For those traders brave enough to engage in high-risk/high-return investing, Opportunities in Emerging Markets is an excellent overview of the world's toughest frontier markets and how to conquer them. Featuring interviews with some of the top investors in the field, this is the definitive guide to the perils and pitfalls of investing in these highly volatile markets.




New Voices in Investment


Book Description

This study analyzes the characteristics, motivations, strategies, and needs of FDI from emerging markets. It draws from a survey of investors and potential investors in Brazil, India, South Korea, and South Africa.