Empirical Science of Financial Fluctuations


Book Description

Financial fluctuations were generally neglected in classical ecnomics and their basic statistical properties have only recently been elucidated in the emerging field of econophysics, a new science that analyzes data using methods developed by statistical physics, such as chaos, fractals, and phase transitions. This volume is the proceedings of a workshop at which leading international researchers in this discipline discussed their most recent results and examined the validity of the empirical laws of econophysics. Topics include stock market prices and foreign exchange rates, income distribution, market anomalies, and risk management. The papers herein relate econophysics to other models, present new models, and illustrate the mechanisms by which financial fluctuations occur using actual financial data. Containing the most recent econophysics results, this volume will serve as an indispensable reference for economic theorists and practitioners alike.







Empirical Asset Pricing


Book Description

An introduction to the theory and methods of empirical asset pricing, integrating classical foundations with recent developments. This book offers a comprehensive advanced introduction to asset pricing, the study of models for the prices and returns of various securities. The focus is empirical, emphasizing how the models relate to the data. The book offers a uniquely integrated treatment, combining classical foundations with more recent developments in the literature and relating some of the material to applications in investment management. It covers the theory of empirical asset pricing, the main empirical methods, and a range of applied topics. The book introduces the theory of empirical asset pricing through three main paradigms: mean variance analysis, stochastic discount factors, and beta pricing models. It describes empirical methods, beginning with the generalized method of moments (GMM) and viewing other methods as special cases of GMM; offers a comprehensive review of fund performance evaluation; and presents selected applied topics, including a substantial chapter on predictability in asset markets that covers predicting the level of returns, volatility and higher moments, and predicting cross-sectional differences in returns. Other chapters cover production-based asset pricing, long-run risk models, the Campbell-Shiller approximation, the debate on covariance versus characteristics, and the relation of volatility to the cross-section of stock returns. An extensive reference section captures the current state of the field. The book is intended for use by graduate students in finance and economics; it can also serve as a reference for professionals.




Political Arithmetic


Book Description

We take for granted today that the assessments, measurements, and forecasts of economists are crucial to the decision-making of governments and businesses alike. But less than a century ago that wasn’t the case—economists simply didn’t have the necessary information or statistical tools to understand the ever more complicated modern economy. With Political Arithmetic, Nobel Prize–winning economist Robert Fogel and his collaborators tell the story of economist Simon Kuznets, the founding of the National Bureau of Economic Research, and the creation of the concept of GNP, which for the first time enabled us to measure the performance of entire economies. The book weaves together the many strands of political and economic thought and historical pressures that together created the demand for more detailed economic thinking—Progressive-era hopes for activist government, the production demands of World War I, Herbert Hoover’s interest in business cycles as President Harding’s commerce secretary, and the catastrophic economic failures of the Great Depression—and shows how, through trial and error, measurement and analysis, economists such as Kuznets rose to the occasion and in the process built a discipline whose knowledge could be put to practical use in everyday decision-making. The product of a lifetime of studying the workings of economies and skillfully employing the tools of economics, Political Arithmetic is simultaneously a history of a key period of economic thought and a testament to the power of applied ideas.




Introduction to Econophysics


Book Description

This book concerns the use of concepts from statistical physics in the description of financial systems. The authors illustrate the scaling concepts used in probability theory, critical phenomena, and fully developed turbulent fluids. These concepts are then applied to financial time series. The authors also present a stochastic model that displays several of the statistical properties observed in empirical data. Statistical physics concepts such as stochastic dynamics, short- and long-range correlations, self-similarity and scaling permit an understanding of the global behaviour of economic systems without first having to work out a detailed microscopic description of the system. Physicists will find the application of statistical physics concepts to economic systems interesting. Economists and workers in the financial world will find useful the presentation of empirical analysis methods and well-formulated theoretical tools that might help describe systems composed of a huge number of interacting subsystems.




Practical Fruits of Econophysics


Book Description

The proceedings of the Third Nikkei Econophysics Symposium, "Business Models in the 21st Century - Risk Management and Expectations for Econophysics," held in Tokyo in November 2004, are gathered herein. Cutting-edge research on the practical application of econophysics is included, covering such topics as the predictability of markets, the analysis of rare events, the mechanism of crashes and bubbles, markets’ correlation and risk management, investment strategy, stochastic market simulations, agent-based market simulations, wealth distribution, and network structures in economics, most of which are beyond the scope of standard financial technology. New market models and financial-data analysis methods are introduced, and dynamic aspects of markets and economy are highlighted. Professionals, researchers, and students will find an invaluable resource in this first book of its kind to summarize the latest work in the field of econophysics.




Volatility Trading


Book Description

Popular guide to options pricing and position sizing for quant traders In this second edition of this bestselling book, Sinclair offers a quantitative model for measuring volatility in order to gain an edge in everyday option trading endeavors. With an accessible, straightforward approach, he guides traders through the basics of option pricing, volatility measurement, hedging, money management, and trade evaluation. This new edition includes new chapters on the dynamics of realized and implied volatilities, trading the variance premium and using options to trade special situations in equity markets. Filled with volatility models including brand new option trades for quant traders Options trader Euan Sinclair specializes in the design and implementation of quantitative trading strategies Volatility Trading, Second Edition + Website outlines strategies for defining a true edge in the market using options to trade volatility profitably.




Human Capital


Book Description

A diverse array of factors may influence both earnings and consumption; however, this work primarily focuses on the impact of investments in human capital upon an individual's potential earnings and psychic income. For this study, investments in human capital include such factors as educational level, on-the-job skills training, health care, migration, and consideration of issues regarding regional prices and income. Taking into account varying cultures and political regimes, the research indicates that economic earnings tend to be positively correlated to education and skill level. Additionally, studies indicate an inverse correlation between education and unemployment. Presents a theoretical overview of the types of human capital and the impact of investment in human capital on earnings and rates of return. Then utilizes empirical data and research to analyze the theoretical issues related to investment in human capital, specifically formal education. Considered are such issues as costs and returns of investments, and social and private gains of individuals. The research compares and contrasts these factors based upon both education and skill level. Areas of future research are identified, including further analysis of issues regarding social gains and differing levels of success across different regions and countries. (AKP).




Statistical Properties in Firms’ Large-scale Data


Book Description

This is the first book to provide a systematic description of statistical properties of large-scale financial data. Specifically, the power-law and log-normal distributions observed at a given time and their changes using time-reversal symmetry, quasi-time-reversal symmetry, Gibrat's law, and the non-Gibrat's property observed in a short-term period are derived here. The statistical properties observed over a long-term period, such as power-law and exponential growth, are also derived. These subjects have not been thoroughly discussed in the field of economics in the past, and this book is a compilation of the author's series of studies by reconstructing the data analyses published in 15 academic journals with new data. This book provides readers with a theoretical and empirical understanding of how the statistical properties observed in firms’ large-scale data are related along the time axis. It is possible to expand this discussion to understand theoretically and empirically how the statistical properties observed among differing large-scale financial data are related. This possibility provides readers with an approach to microfoundations, an important issue that has been studied in economics for many years.




System Analysis and Artificial Intelligence


Book Description

This book contains the latest scientific work of Ukrainian scientists and their colleagues from other countries of the world in three interrelated areas: systems analysis, artificial intelligence and data mining. The included articles present the theoretical foundations and practical applications of the latest tools and methods of artificial intelligence, scenario planning, decision making and computational intelligence for important areas of human activity. The tools and methods presented in the book are continuously evolving and finding new applications across various fields, contributing to advancements and efficiencies in different industries: healthcare, finance, retail and E-commerce, manufacturing and industrial automation, transportation and logistics advancements and cybersecurity. The results of the book are useful to teachers, scientists, graduate students of universities and managers of large companies specializing in strategic planning, engineering design of complex systems, decision-making, optimization of operations and other related fields of knowledge and practice.