Hysteresis and Business Cycles


Book Description

Traditionally, economic growth and business cycles have been treated independently. However, the dependence of GDP levels on its history of shocks, what economists refer to as “hysteresis,” argues for unifying the analysis of growth and cycles. In this paper, we review the recent empirical and theoretical literature that motivate this paradigm shift. The renewed interest in hysteresis has been sparked by the persistence of the Global Financial Crisis and fears of a slow recovery from the Covid-19 crisis. The findings of the recent literature have far-reaching conceptual and policy implications. In recessions, monetary and fiscal policies need to be more active to avoid the permanent scars of a downturn. And in good times, running a high-pressure economy could have permanent positive effects.




Frontiers of Business Cycle Research


Book Description

This introduction to modern business cycle theory uses a neoclassical growth framework to study the economic fluctuations associated with the business cycle. Presenting advances in dynamic economic theory and computational methods, it applies concepts to t




The American Business Cycle


Book Description

In recent decades the American economy has experienced the worst peace-time inflation in its history and the highest unemployment rate since the Great Depression. These circumstances have prompted renewed interest in the concept of business cycles, which Joseph Schumpeter suggested are "like the beat of the heart, of the essence of the organism that displays them." In The American Business Cycle, some of the most prominent macroeconomics in the United States focuses on the questions, To what extent are business cycles propelled by external shocks? How have post-1946 cycles differed from earlier cycles? And, what are the major factors that contribute to business cycles? They extend their investigation in some areas as far back as 1875 to afford a deeper understanding of both economic history and the most recent economic fluctuations. Seven papers address specific aspects of economic activity: consumption, investment, inventory change, fiscal policy, monetary behavior, open economy, and the labor market. Five papers focus on aggregate economic activity. In a number of cases, the papers present findings that challenge widely accepted models and assumptions. In addition to its substantive findings, The American Business Cycle includes an appendix containing both the first published history of the NBER business-cycle dating chronology and many previously unpublished historical data series.




Business Cycles and Depressions


Book Description

Experts define, review, and evaluate economic fluctuations Economic and business uncertainty dominate today's economic analyses. This new Encyclopedia illuminates the subject by offering 323 original articles on every major aspect of business cycles, fluctuations, financial crises, recessions, and depressions. The work of more than 200 experts, including many of the leading researchers in the field, the articles cover a broad range of subjects, including capsule biographies of leading economists born before 1920. Individual entries explore banking panics, the cobweb cycle, consumer durables, the depression of 1937-1938, Otto Eckstein, Friedrich Engels, experimental price bubbles, forced savings, lass-Steagall Act, Friedrich hagen, qualitative indicators, use of macro-econometric models, monetary neutrality, Phillips Curve, Paul Samuelson, Say's law, supply-side recessions, James Tokin, trend and random wages, Thorstein Veblen, worker-job turnover, and more.




Handbook on the History of Economic Analysis Volume III


Book Description

This unique troika of Handbooks provides indispensable coverage of the history of economic analysis. Edited by two of the foremost academics in the field, the volumes gather together insightful and original contributions from scholars across the world. The encyclopaedic breadth and scope of the original entries will make these Handbooks an invaluable source of knowledge for all serious students and scholars of the history of economic thought.




Business Cycle Dynamics and Stabilization Policies


Book Description

This monograph is devoted to the analysis of the dynamics of business cycles and stabilization policies. The analysis is conducted in models of the AS-AD type, focusing on involuntary unemployment and capital accumulation. Major conclusions are the following. (1) Sectoral imbalances, once emphasized by such business-cycle theorists as K. Marx, A. Spiethoff, and F.A. Hayek, are rectified in finite time by competitive investment allocation, leaving aggregate variables as the main variables of business cycle dynamics. (2) The chronology of events during a cycle is established, which resolves the so-called real wage puzzle. (3) Owing to the crowding-out effect on investment, fiscal stabilization policies can destabilize the business cycle dynamics if implemented too intensively. (4) If coordinated properly, monetary stabilization policies can remove the destabilizing tendency of fiscal stabilization policies.




Conversations on Growth, Stability and Trade


Book Description

This is a splendid book. It sits at the interface of economics and economic history, and provides both a textbook-style introduction to the key themes of macroeconomics and personal insights into the central debates gleaned from interviews with leading economists. David Greasley, Australian Economic History Review It should be in every library. A hundred years from now, it will be an important guide to what leading economists thought they knew, and what they knew they didn't know as of A.D. 2002. Christopher Hanes, EH.Net Conversations on Growth, Stability and Trade is a wonderful survey of the development of macroeconomic thinking over the past decades. Brian Snowdon has a knack for combining insightful essays on a subject with interviews of interesting, relevant, and diverse economists. The interviews give one an excellent sense of how economists approach policy issues. David Colander, Middlebury College, US Conversations on Growth, Stability and Trade has all the lucidity of A Modern Guide to Macroeconomics by Snowdon, Vane and Wynarczyk, combined with the fascination of Conversations with Leading Economists by Snowdon and Vane. Students will love it and their teachers will devour it the night before the big lecture. If only I had learned macroeconomics this way. Mark Blaug, University of London and University of Buckingham, UK These well informed and highly readable interviews provide a great introduction to some of the big issues in modern economics. Roger E. Backhouse, University of Birmingham, UK This unique volume provides a comprehensive survey of the major economic issues that have helped shape the modern world. It includes discussions of the latest research findings in macroeconomics and scrutinises some of the most important debates in economic history. The author examines the many controversies relating to the role of government in a modern economy, long-run growth and development, the spread of the Industrial Revolution, the causes and consequences of the Great Depression , the Great Peacetime Inflation , the conduct of stabilisation policy, international economic integration and globalisation. To shed light on these major issues the volume contains interviews with ten leading economists who have each contributed extensively to the literature on macroeconomics, economic growth and development, international economics and economic history. A major theme which runs throughout the book is the conviction that economists can gain valuable insights concerning important contemporary policy issues from a knowledge of history, especially economic history. The distinguished economists featured in this book are: Ben Bernanke, Jagdish Bhagwati, Alan Blinder, Nick Crafts, Bradford DeLong, Barry Eichengreen, Kevin Hoover, Charles Jones, Christina Romer and Joseph Stiglitz. Containing an extensive and up-to-date list of references, the book provides a comprehensive guide to the modern literature on macroeconomics and related fields. It will be an essential reference for all scholars and students of economics, especially those with an interest in economic growth, business cycles, inflation, unemployment, trade and globalisation. It will also be of considerable value to students of economic history and the history of economic thought.




Fiscal Policy, Stabilization, and Growth


Book Description

Fiscal policy in Latin America has been guided primarily by short-term liquidity targets whose observance was taken as the main exponent of fiscal prudence, with attention focused almost exclusively on the levels of public debt and the cash deficit. Very little attention was paid to the effects of fiscal policy on growth and on macroeconomic volatility over the cycle. Important issues such as the composition of public expenditures (and its effects on growth), the ability of fiscal policy to stabilize cyclical fluctuations, and the currency composition of public debt were largely neglected. As a result, fiscal policy has often amplified cyclical volatility and dampened growth. 'Fiscal Policy, Stabilization, and Growth' explores the conduct of fiscal policy in Latin America and its consequences for macroeconomic stability and long-term growth. In particular, the book highlights the procyclical and anti-investment biases embedded in the region's fiscal policies, explores their causes and macroeconomic consequences, and asesses their possible solutions.




Business Cycles and Macroeconomic Stability


Book Description

Setting the issue "Most economists consider the marked increase in automatic stabilizers a highly favorable development with respect to maintenance of economic stability". Besides the rare privilege of having being signed by both Milton Friedman and Paul Samuelson (Depres,Friedman, Hart, Samuelson, and Wallace [1950]), among others, this sentence expressed as soon as 1950 the consensus view on the stabilizing effect of fiscal rules governing tax revenue and public expendi tures and transfers. This positive ex ante assessment will have been confirmed ex post as part of the explanation for post war stabilization (Burns [1960], de Long and Summers [1986], Moore and Zarnovitz [1986]). However, it becomes disputed in both its positive and normative aspects. Many institutional changes since the eighties point at curbing back the transfer mechanisms underlying automatic stabilizers, and legal restraints on deficits such as the US balanced budget amendment or the European Maastricht criteria would involve serious risks for the future of stabilizers. Under such rules "the government would become, almost inevitally, a destabilizer rather than a stabilizer" said Joseph Stiglitz, quoted by the New York Times (April 1995)). "Built-in stabilizers are automatic fiscal adjustments that reduce the national income multiplier and thus cushion the effects of changes in autonomous spend ing on the level of income" (Pechman [1987]). Early analyses of the automatic fiscal stabilizers include the contributions of A. G. Hart [1945], R. Musgrave and M. Miller (1948) and E. C. Brown (1955).