Three Essays on Demand Estimation


Book Description

Chapter 1: The Role of Reputation/Feedback Contents in NYC Airbnb Market: Evidence from Hedonic Price Regressions. Economists have found that reducing information asymmetry is crucial for online marketplaces to overcome market failure due to adverse selection. Reputation/feedback systems and multi-media web contents from sellers are known to be popular disclosure devices for this purpose. This paper employs hedonic price regressions to provide empirical evidence that the recent success of a sharing economy platform, Airbnb also relies on such publicly available information on product quality. Machine learning selectors were employed to reduce high-dimensionality in the attribute space. To process consumer review texts and sellers' advertisement texts, word/phrase extraction and sentiment analysis were introduced. I propose a GMM estimation to produce more accurate implicit price estimates, that was designed to control for time-varying unobservables. 'Superhost' designation by the platform and consumer reviews showed greater impacts than seller side advertisement texts. Chapter 2: Demand Estimation for NYC Airbnb Market: Value of Reputation/Feedback Contents and Voluntary Disclosures. The success of online marketplaces has often been attributed to reputation/feedback systems, in that they reduce adverse selection due to information asymmetry by disclosing enforced or verifiable ex-post information on product quality. This paper tries to quantify the value of such information contents in NYC Airbnb market with a newly constructed dataset containing the actual 708,308 vacation rental reservations from Airbnb tourists. A three level nested logit model was employed to capture consumers' choice set formation behaviors during web search on the platform using Google Maps API. High-dimensional attribute space due to extreme product heterogeneity necessitates variable selection using machine learning methods based on sparsity assumption. Though model selection procedures by LASSO and exact inference for post selection parameter estimates were proposed, structural modeling and endogeneity control turn out to be essential for successful identification. Text processing techniques were introduced to extract variables from sellers' advertisement texts and consumer reviews. The results confirm a key insight from information economics: enforced quality certifications and ex-post verified consumer reviews generate greater welfare impacts than non-verified seller side voluntary disclosures. Chapter 3: Estimation for the Distribution of Random Coefficients with Heterogeneous Agent Types: Monte-Carlo Simulation. This paper is a simple Monte-Carlo extension for Fox, Kim, Ryan, and Bajari (2011), which gives a direct estimator for the distribution of random coefficients in diverse settings including logit demand models. The estimator is a simple inequality constrained least squares, and this study examines its behaviors given there are hundreds of consumer types, which could be an interesting case for various marketplaces. High-dimensional metrics are then introduced to reduce the dimensionality of design matrices the rank of which is the number of consumer types. The approximation performances to the cumulative distribution of random coefficients of such post lasso estimators are compared to those of baseline estimator.




Essays on Structural Estimation in the European Car Market


Book Description

This dissertation consists of two essays of structural estimation in the European car market, where the first chapter focuses on the demand side and the second chapter focuses on the supply side. In the first chapter, I incorporate home bias in a structural demand, consistent with the strong dominant position of domestic car manufacturers in Europe. I use the Berry, Levinsohn, and Pakes (1995) methodology which considers heterogeneous consumers, controls for price endogeneity, and does not impose decision nests. My estimates suggest that home bias is a key determinant of the market shares differences and is well captured by a fixed effect. Contrary to previous finding, domestic producers do not face a less sensitive demand in their domestic markets than foreign competitors, which is a crucial distinction for pricing behavior. In the second chapter, I estimate the underlying cost structure of the car manufacturers to rationalize two key features: incomplete degree of exchange rate pass-through and gradual price adjustments. Using the methodology developed by Bajari, Benkard, and Levin (2007) to estimate dynamic games, I identify structural cost parameters including destination-currency cost components and price adjustment costs. The main results are: i) the destination-currency cost component should be about 20-30% of total costs in order to rationalize the observed incomplete degree of exchange rate pass-through; ii) relatively small price adjustment costs can rationalize the observed inertia in car prices; iii) there are heterogeneous price adjustment costs at producer-market level suggesting a new dimension of pricing to market behavior; and iv) in this particular dynamic environment, there is a positive relationship between price elasticities and markups.







Essays on the Estimation of Demand for Complementary Goods


Book Description

This dissertation investigates the problem of demand estimation across complementary goods at the level of individual purchase decisions made by consumers. At this micro level, package sizes may restrict the amount of goods that can be purchased, and temporary price discounts may induce consumers to stockpile goods in anticipation of their future consumption needs, leading to dynamics in purchasing behavior over time. We address these issues in two essays by proposing new structural models of demand. In the first essay, we develop a new approach to modeling consumer preferences for complements which is based on household production theory, and we study the importance of accounting for package size restrictions in modeling cross-category price effects. In the second essay, we embed this approach in a model of consumer forward-looking behavior to study the consequences of stockpiling behavior on the spillover effect of prices across complementary products that are storable.




Essays in Structural Econometrics


Book Description

The first chapter develops a general framework for models, static or dynamic, in which agents simultaneously make both discrete and continuous choices. I show that such models are nonparametrically identified. Based on the constructive identification arguments, I build a novel twostep estimation method in the lineage of Hotz and Miller (1993) but extended to discrete and continuous choice models. The method is especially attractive for complex dynamic models because it significantly reduces the computational burden associated with their estimation. To illustrate my new method, I estimate a dynamic micro-model of female labor supply and consumption. The method is also illustrated in the third chapter of the thesis. In the second chapter, I build a dynamic search model to examine the decision problem of a homeowner who maximizes her expected profit from the sale of her property when market conditions are uncertain. Using a large dataset of real estate transactions in Pennsylvania between 2011and 2014, I verify several stylized facts about the housing market. I develop a dynamic search model of the home-selling problem in which the homeowner learns about demand in a Bayesian way. I estimate the model and find that learning, especially the downward adjustment of the beliefs of sellers facing low demand, explains some of the key features of the housing data, such as the decreasing list price overtime and time on the market. By comparing with a perfect information benchmark, I derive an unexpected result: the value of information is not always positive. Indeed, an imperfectly informed seller facing low demand can obtain a better outcome than her perfectly informed counterpart thanks to a delusively stronger bargaining position. In the third chapter, joint work with Thierry Magnac, we estimate a dynamic discrete and continuous choices model of households' decisions regarding their consumption, housing tenure and housing services over the life-cycle. We use non-parametric identification arguments as in the first chapter to formulate an empirical strategy in two steps that (1) estimates discrete choice probabilities and continuous choices distribution summaries to be used in (2) Bellman and Euler equations that estimate the structural parameters. Specific modelling strategies are adopted because of unfrequent mobility due to housing transaction costs. Counterfactuals that can be evaluated are related to those transaction costs as well as of prudential policies such as down payments.




Essays on Identification and Estimation of Structural Economic Models


Book Description

This dissertation consists of three chapters that study the identification and estimation of structural economic models. Chapter 1, "Identification and Estimation of Nonseparable Triangular Equations with Mismeasured Instruments" studies the nonparametric identification and estimation of the marginal effect of an endogenous variable X on the outcome variable Y , given a potentially mismeasured instrument variable W∗, without assuming linearity or separability of the functions governing the relationship between observables and unobservables. In order to address the challenges arising from the co-existence of measurement error and nonseparability, I first employ the deconvolution technique from the measurement error literature to identify the joint distribution of Y,X,W∗ using two error-laden measurements of W∗. I then recover the structural derivative of the function of interest and the "Local Average Response" (LAR) from the joint distribution via the "unobserved instrument" approach in Matzkin (2016). I also propose nonparametric estimators for these parameters and derive their uniform rates of convergence. Monte Carlo exercises show evidence that the estimators I propose have goodfinite sample performance. Chapter 2, "Two-step Estimation of Network Formation Models with Unobserved Heterogeneities and Strategic Interactions", characterizes the network formation process as a static game of incomplete information, where the latent payoff of forming a link between two individuals depends on the structure of the network, as well as private information on agents' attributes. I allow agents' private unobserved attributes to be correlated with observed attributes through individual fixed effects. Using data from a single large network, I propose a two-step estimator for the model primitives. In the first step, I estimate agents' equilibrium beliefs of other people's choice probabilities. In the second step, I plug in the first-step estimator to the conditional choice probability expression and estimate the model parameters and the unobserved individual fixed effects together using Joint MLE. Assuming that the observed attributes are discrete, I showed that the first step estimator is uniformly consistent with rate N−1/4, where N is the total number of linking proposals. I also show that the second-step estimator converges asymptotically to a normal distribution at the same rate. Chapter 3, "Identification and Estimation in Differentiated Products Markets Where Firms Affect Consumers' Attention" studies the nonparametric identification and estimation of a demand and supply system where firms affect consumers' consideration sets via costly marketing inputs, when market-level data is available. On the demand side, I characterize preferences and considerations nonparametrically, allowing rich heterogeneities and correlations between them. On the supply side, I characterize firms' optimal choices by a set of first-order conditions without specifying the form of the oligopoly model. The demand and supply sides form a simultaneous system of equations in the spirit of Berry and Haile (2014). I then show the identification of the system using the method proposed by Matzkin (2015). Moreover, using the variations of exclusive regressors entering preferences and considerations respectively, I separately identify features of the utility functions and the attention functions. Based on the constructive identification results, I propose nonparametric estimators of the demand, utility, and attention functions and show their asymptotic properties.










Essays on Structural Behavioral Economics


Book Description

The first chapter extends the standard discrete choice framework to estimate demand in markets with differentiated products when consumers display reference dependent (R-D) utility. In industries with a common reference product, R-D preferences generate novel substitution patterns that cannot be rationalized by many of the standard models, making the R-D model testable. Such substitution patterns are also present with relatively low heterogeneity among consumers' reference product. As the level of heterogeneity increases, the difference between the R-D predictions and standard predictions decreases. When the true data generating process comes from R-D preferences, simulations show that standard models deliver biased estimates of elasticities. Finally, using consumer scanner data, I reject the hypothesis that the facial tissue industry contains no R-D consumers, and estimate that 25 percent of Kleneex's market share derives from its status as the reference brand. The second chapter studies present bias and self control in a real mortgage market. I look at a novel dataset from a Mexican mortgage institution, where I individually follow state workers repayment decisions across 15 years. By applying Fan and Wang (2016) methodology, I am able to estimate the long term discount factor \delta, the quasi-hyperbolic discount factor \beta and the degree of naivety \tilde{\beta} the state worker has. I find that the state worker suffers from present bias , and is not aware of it . I show that the mortgage debt could be repaid faster if individuals could behave either as exponential discounters, or as sophisticated present biased discounters. These finding suggest that the risk of default is greater than the one estimated under traditional exponential models.