U.S. Investment Since the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017


Book Description

There is no consensus on how strongly the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) has stimulated U.S. private fixed investment. Some argue that the business tax provisions spurred investment by cutting the cost of capital. Others see the TCJA primarily as a windfall for shareholders. We find that U.S. business investment since 2017 has grown strongly compared to pre-TCJA forecasts and that the overriding factor driving it has been the strength of expected aggregate demand. Investment has, so far, fallen short of predictions based on the postwar relation with tax cuts. Model simulations and firm-level data suggest that much of this weaker response reflects a lower sensitivity of investment to tax policy changes in the current environment of greater corporate market power. Economic policy uncertainty in 2018 played a relatively small role in dampening investment growth.













Estimates of Federal Tax Expenditures


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Qualified Business Income Deduction


Book Description

...discusses a new provision of the Internal Revenue Code, §199A, which provides a 20% deduction for qualified business income, qualified publicly traded partnership income, qualified REIT dividends, and income of, or received from, certain agricultural or horticultural cooperatives. The Portfolio describes the requirements that taxpayers must meet in order to qualify for the deduction, the complex rules that limit taxpayers’ eligibility for the deduction, and the many uncertainties that taxpayers and their advisers face in interpreting the statute.







Options for Reducing the Deficit


Book Description

This volume presents 115 options that would decrease federal spending or increase federal revenues over the next decade. The federal budget deficit in fiscal year (FY) 2016 totaled $587 billion or 3.2 percent (%) of gross domestic product (GDP), up 2.5 percent (%) in year 2015. The options cover many areas ranging from defense to energy, Social Security and provisions of the tax code. This edition reports the estimated budgetary effects of various options and highlights some of the advantages and disadvantages of those options. Students pursuing research for economic coursework in high school, community college, and university levels may be interested in this vision presented by the Congressional Budget Office, Additionally, economists, federal budget analysts, political science scholars, financial planners, and lawmakers may be interested in this official resource. Related products: Other products produced by the U.S. Congressional Budget Office (CBO) are available here: https: //bookstore.gpo.gov/agency/237Economic Policy resources collection can be found here: https: //bookstore.gpo.gov/catalog/budget-economy/economic-policyEconomic Development publications are available here: https: //bookstore.gpo.gov/catalog/budget-economy/economic-development




Corporate Tax Reform


Book Description

Interest in corporate tax reform that lowers the rate and broadens the base has developed in the past several years. Some discussions by economists in opinion pieces have suggested there is an urgent need to lower the corporate tax rate, but not necessarily to broaden the tax base, an approach that presents some difficulties given current budget pressures. Others see the corporate tax as a potential source of revenue. Arguments for lowering the corporate tax rate include the traditional concerns about economic distortions arising from the corporate tax and newer concerns arising from the increasingly global nature of the economy. Some claims have been made that lowering the corporate tax rate would raise revenue because of the behavioral responses, an effect that is linked to an open economy. Although the corporate tax has generally been viewed as contributing to a more progressive tax system because the burden falls on capital income and thus on higher-income individuals, claims have also been made that the burden falls not on owners of capital, but on labor income. The analysis in this report suggests that many of the concerns expressed about the corporate tax are not supported by empirical evidence. Claims that behavioral responses could cause revenues to rise if rates were cut do not hold up on either a theoretical or an empirical basis. Studies that purport to show a revenue-maximizing corporate tax rate of 30% (a rate lower than the current statutory tax rate) contain econometric errors that lead to biased and inconsistent results; when those problems are corrected the results disappear. Cross-country studies to provide direct evidence showing that the burden of the corporate tax actually falls on labor yield unreasonable results and prove to suffer from econometric flaws that also lead to a disappearance of the results when corrected, in those cases where data were obtained and the results replicated. Many studies that have been cited are not relevant to the United States because they reflect wage bargaining approaches and unions have virtually disappeared from the private sector in the United States. Overall, the evidence suggests that the tax is largely borne by capital. Similarly, claims that high U.S. tax rates will create problems for the United States in a global economy suffer from a misrepresentation of the U.S. tax rate compared with other countries and are less important when capital is imperfectly mobile, as it appears to be. Although these new arguments appear to rely on questionable methods, the traditional concerns about the corporate tax appear valid. While an argument may be made that the tax is still needed as a backstop to individual tax collections, it does result in some economic distortions. These economic distortions, however, have declined substantially over time as corporate rates and shares of output have fallen. Moreover, it is difficult to lower the corporate tax without creating a way of sheltering individual income given the low tax rates on dividends and capital gains. A number of revenue-neutral changes are available that could reduce these distortions, allow for a lower corporate statutory tax rate, and lead to a more efficient corporate tax system. These changes include base broadening, reducing the benefits of debt finance through inflation indexing, taxing large pass-through firms as corporations, and reducing the tax at the firm level offset by an increase at the individual level. Nevertheless, the scope for reducing the tax rate in a revenue-neutral way may be limited.