Estimation of Stochastic Processes with Stationary Increments and Cointegrated Sequences


Book Description

Estimation of Stochastic Processes is intended for researchers in the field of econometrics, financial mathematics, statistics or signal processing. This book gives a deep understanding of spectral theory and estimation techniques for stochastic processes with stationary increments. It focuses on the estimation of functionals of unobserved values for stochastic processes with stationary increments, including ARIMA processes, seasonal time series and a class of cointegrated sequences. Furthermore, this book presents solutions to extrapolation (forecast), interpolation (missed values estimation) and filtering (smoothing) problems based on observations with and without noise, in discrete and continuous time domains. Extending the classical approach applied when the spectral densities of the processes are known, the minimax method of estimation is developed for a case where the spectral information is incomplete and the relations that determine the least favorable spectral densities for the optimal estimations are found.




Non-Stationary Stochastic Processes Estimation


Book Description

The problem of forecasting future values of economic and physical processes, the problem of restoring lost information, cleaning signals or other data observations from noise, is magnified in an information-laden word. Methods of stochastic processes estimation depend on two main factors. The first factor is construction of a model of the process being investigated. The second factor is the available information about the structure of the process under consideration. In this book, we propose results of the investigation of the problem of mean square optimal estimation (extrapolation, interpolation, and filtering) of linear functionals depending on unobserved values of stochastic sequences and processes with periodically stationary and long memory multiplicative seasonal increments. Formulas for calculating the mean square errors and the spectral characteristics of the optimal estimates of the functionals are derived in the case of spectral certainty, where spectral structure of the considered sequences and processes are exactly known. In the case where spectral densities of the sequences and processes are not known exactly while some sets of admissible spectral densities are given, we apply the minimax-robust method of estimation.




Estimation of Stochastic Processes with Stationary Increments and Cointegrated Sequences


Book Description

Estimation of Stochastic Processes is intended for researchers in the field of econometrics, financial mathematics, statistics or signal processing. This book gives a deep understanding of spectral theory and estimation techniques for stochastic processes with stationary increments. It focuses on the estimation of functionals of unobserved values for stochastic processes with stationary increments, including ARIMA processes, seasonal time series and a class of cointegrated sequences. Furthermore, this book presents solutions to extrapolation (forecast), interpolation (missed values estimation) and filtering (smoothing) problems based on observations with and without noise, in discrete and continuous time domains. Extending the classical approach applied when the spectral densities of the processes are known, the minimax method of estimation is developed for a case where the spectral information is incomplete and the relations that determine the least favorable spectral densities for the optimal estimations are found.










Non-Stationary Stochastic Processes Estimation


Book Description

The problem of forecasting future values of economic and physical processes, the problem of restoring lost information, cleaning signals or other data observations from noise, is magnified in an information-laden word. Methods of stochastic processes estimation depend on two main factors. The first factor is construction of a model of the process being investigated. The second factor is the available information about the structure of the process under consideration. In this book, we propose results of the investigation of the problem of mean square optimal estimation (extrapolation, interpolation, and filtering) of linear functionals depending on unobserved values of stochastic sequences and processes with periodically stationary and long memory multiplicative seasonal increments. Formulas for calculating the mean square errors and the spectral characteristics of the optimal estimates of the functionals are derived in the case of spectral certainty, where spectral structure of the considered sequences and processes are exactly known. In the case where spectral densities of the sequences and processes are not known exactly while some sets of admissible spectral densities are given, we apply the minimax-robust method of estimation.







Unit Roots, Cointegration, and Structural Change


Book Description

A comprehensive review of unit roots, cointegration and structural change from a best-selling author.




Markov Chains


Book Description

Markov chains are a fundamental class of stochastic processes. They are widely used to solve problems in a large number of domains such as operational research, computer science, communication networks and manufacturing systems. The success of Markov chains is mainly due to their simplicity of use, the large number of available theoretical results and the quality of algorithms developed for the numerical evaluation of many metrics of interest. The author presents the theory of both discrete-time and continuous-time homogeneous Markov chains. He carefully examines the explosion phenomenon, the Kolmogorov equations, the convergence to equilibrium and the passage time distributions to a state and to a subset of states. These results are applied to birth-and-death processes. He then proposes a detailed study of the uniformization technique by means of Banach algebra. This technique is used for the transient analysis of several queuing systems. Contents 1. Discrete-Time Markov Chains 2. Continuous-Time Markov Chains 3. Birth-and-Death Processes 4. Uniformization 5. Queues About the Authors Bruno Sericola is a Senior Research Scientist at Inria Rennes – Bretagne Atlantique in France. His main research activity is in performance evaluation of computer and communication systems, dependability analysis of fault-tolerant systems and stochastic models.




Probability and Random Processes


Book Description

A resource for probability AND random processes, with hundreds ofworked examples and probability and Fourier transform tables This survival guide in probability and random processes eliminatesthe need to pore through several resources to find a certainformula or table. It offers a compendium of most distributionfunctions used by communication engineers, queuing theoryspecialists, signal processing engineers, biomedical engineers,physicists, and students. Key topics covered include: * Random variables and most of their frequently used discrete andcontinuous probability distribution functions * Moments, transformations, and convergences of randomvariables * Characteristic, generating, and moment-generating functions * Computer generation of random variates * Estimation theory and the associated orthogonalityprinciple * Linear vector spaces and matrix theory with vector and matrixdifferentiation concepts * Vector random variables * Random processes and stationarity concepts * Extensive classification of random processes * Random processes through linear systems and the associated Wienerand Kalman filters * Application of probability in single photon emission tomography(SPECT) More than 400 figures drawn to scale assist readers inunderstanding and applying theory. Many of these figures accompanythe more than 300 examples given to help readers visualize how tosolve the problem at hand. In many instances, worked examples aresolved with more than one approach to illustrate how differentprobability methodologies can work for the same problem. Several probability tables with accuracy up to nine decimal placesare provided in the appendices for quick reference. A specialfeature is the graphical presentation of the commonly occurringFourier transforms, where both time and frequency functions aredrawn to scale. This book is of particular value to undergraduate and graduatestudents in electrical, computer, and civil engineering, as well asstudents in physics and applied mathematics. Engineers, computerscientists, biostatisticians, and researchers in communicationswill also benefit from having a single resource to address mostissues in probability and random processes.