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Exploiting Earnings Volatility

Author : Brian Johnson

Publisher :

Page : 256 pages

File Size : 50,41 MB

Release : 2015-04-08

Category : Investment analysis

ISBN : 9780996182300

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Book Description

Exploiting Earnings Volatility introduces an innovative new framework for evaluating, optimizing, and trading option strategies to profit from earnings-related pricing anomalies. Leveraging his extensive background in option-pricing and decades of experience in investment management and trading, Brian Johnson developed this inventive approach specifically to design and manage option earnings strategies. In an Active Trader article titled "Modeling Implied Volatility," Mr. Johnson introduced a formula for aggregating discrete volatility measures into a single metric that can be used with conventional option pricing formulas to accurately model implied volatility before and after earnings announcements. The practical application of this formula has profound implications for option trading and strategy development. Exploiting Earnings Volatility is written in a clear, understandable fashion and explains how to use this novel approach to 1) solve for the expected level of earnings volatility implicitly priced in an option matrix, 2) calculate historical levels of realized and implied earnings volatility, 3) develop strategies to exploit divergences between the two, and 4) calculate expected future levels of implied volatility before and after earnings announcements. Furthermore, Exploiting Earnings Volatility also includes two Excel spreadsheets. The Basic spreadsheet employs minimal input data to estimate current and historical earnings volatility and utilizes those estimates to forecast future levels of implied volatility around earnings announcements. The Integrated spreadsheet includes a comprehensive volatility model that simultaneously integrates and quantifies every component of real-world implied volatility, including earnings volatility. This powerful tool allows the user to identify the precise level of over or undervaluation of every option in the matrix and to accurately forecast future option prices and option strategy profits and losses before and after earnings announcements. The Integrated spreadsheet even includes an optimization tool designed to identify the option strategy with the highest level of return per unit of risk. Written specifically for investors who have familiarity with options, this practical guide begins with a detailed review of volatility and an explanation of the aggregate implied volatility formula. A separate chapter provides a conceptual and mathematical explanation of "True Greeks," accurate measures of risk and return sensitivity that reflect the real-world behavior of options. New option Greeks that are specific to earnings announcements are also introduced. Four chapters explain how to use the Basic and Integrated spreadsheets and two chapters document trade examples that use actual market data and analytical results from both spreadsheets to design a unique option strategy to exploit earnings-related pricing and volatility anomalies. The final chapter examines practical considerations and prospective applications of these innovative new tools. This book introduces a new analytical framework that may sound complicated at first, but is really quite intuitive. The formulas presented in the book are limited to basic high-school algebra. Mathematical relationships are also explained intuitively and depicted graphically. Most important, you will not need to perform any of these calculations manually. Exploiting Earnings Volatility includes a link to Excel spreadsheets that perform all of the calculations described in the book. The unique price and volatility behavior of options before and after discrete earnings announcements is an enigma to most option traders, even to many professionals. The aggregate volatility formula is relatively simple, but it has profound implications. When integrated with a real-world volatility model, it offers unique insights into earnings volatility, price behavior, option strategy construction, and prospective value-added opportunities.



Option Strategies for Earnings Announcements

Author : Ping Zhou

Publisher : FT Press

Page : 258 pages

File Size : 39,36 MB

Release : 2012-10-15

Category : Business & Economics

ISBN : 0132947404

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Book Description

By trading on corporate earnings, investors can reliably profit in both up and down markets, while avoiding market risk for nearly the entire quarter. In this book, two leading traders and portfolio managers present specific, actionable techniques anyone can use to capture these sizable profits. Ping Zhou and John Shon have performed an unprecedented empirical analysis of thousands of stocks, reviewing tens of millions of data points associated with option prices, earnings announcement returns, and fundamentals. Their massive analysis has identified consistent opportunities associated with focusing on the magnitude of the market’s reaction to earnings, not its direction. Option Trading Set-Ups for Corporate Earnings News offers concrete guidance for improving the likelihood of making correct forecasts, and managing the risks of incorrect forecasts. It introduces several ways to exploit option trading opportunities around earnings news, discuss crucial issues that most retail investors haven’t considered, and explore aspects of earnings-related option trading that have never been empirically examined and documented before. For example, they identify hidden patterns and potential opportunities based on valuation, industry, volatility, analyst forecasts, seasonality, and trades that immediately follow earnings announcements. Simply put, trading on earnings reports offers immense profit opportunities, if you know how. This book provides incontrovertible facts and detailed strategies, not just theories and anecdotes!



The Volatility Edge in Options Trading

Author : Jeff Augen

Publisher : FT Press

Page : 301 pages

File Size : 36,86 MB

Release : 2008-01-17

Category : Business & Economics

ISBN : 0132703688

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Book Description

“Jeff’s analysis is unique, at least among academic derivatives textbooks. I would definitely use this material in my derivatives class, as I believe students would benefit from analyzing the many dimensions of Jeff’s trading strategies. I especially found the material on trading the earnings cycle and discussion of how to insure against price jumps at known events very worthwhile.” —DR. ROBERT JENNINGS, Professor of Finance, Indiana University Kelley School of Business “This is not just another book about options trading. The author shares a plethora of knowledge based on 20 years of trading experience and study of the financial markets. Jeff explains the myriad of complexities about options in a manner that is insightful and easy to understand. Given the growth in the options and derivatives markets over the past five years, this book is required reading for any serious investor or anyone in the financial service industries.” —MICHAEL P. O’HARE, Head of Mergers & Acquisitions, Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. “Those in the know will find this book to be an excellent resource and practical guide with exciting new insights into investing and hedging with options.” —JIM MEYER, Managing Director, Sasqua Field Capital Partners LLC “Jeff has focused everything I knew about options pricing and more through a hyper-insightful lens! This book provides a unique and practical perspective about options trading that should be required reading for professional and individual investors.” —ARTHUR TISI, Founder and CEO, EXA Infosystems; private investor and options trader In The Volatility Edge in Options Trading, leading options trader Jeff Augen introduces breakthrough strategies for identifying subtle price distortions that arise from changes in market volatility. Drawing on more than a decade of never-before-published research, Augen provides new analytical techniques that every experienced options trader can use to study historical price changes, mitigate risk, limit market exposure, and structure mathematically sound high-return options positions. Augen bridges the gap between pricing theory mathematics and market realities, covering topics addressed in no other options trading book. He introduces new ways to exploit the rising volatility that precedes earnings releases; trade the monthly options expiration cycle; leverage put:call price parity disruptions; understand weekend and month-end effects on bid-ask spreads; and use options on the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) as a portfolio hedge. Unlike conventional guides, The Volatility Edge in Options Trading doesn’t rely on oversimplified positional analyses: it fully reflects ongoing changes in the prices of underlying securities, market volatility, and time decay. What’s more, Augen shows how to build your own customized analytical toolset using low-cost desktop software and data sources: tools that can transform his state-of-the-art strategies into practical buy/sell guidance. An options investment strategy that reflects the markets’ fundamental mathematical properties Presents strategies for achieving superior returns in widely diverse market conditions Adaptive trading: how to dynamically manage option positions, and why you must Includes precise, proven metrics and rules for adjusting complex positions Effectively trading the earnings and expiration cycles Leverage price distortions related to earnings and impending options expirations Building a state-of-the-art analytical infrastructure Use standard desktop software and data sources to build world-class decision-making tools



Trading Option Volatility

Author : Brian Johnson

Publisher :

Page : 298 pages

File Size : 38,34 MB

Release : 2021-03-03

Category :

ISBN : 9780996182331

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Book Description

Trading Option Volatility introduces a practical new analytical framework that generates theoretically correct and internally consistent, current and future option prices, volatility index futures prices, and risk metrics (Greeks) - for all term structures of volatilities and all term structures of interest rates.



Option Strategy Hedging and Risk Management

Author : Brian Johnson

Publisher :

Page : 128 pages

File Size : 39,64 MB

Release : 2017-03-25

Category : Hedging (Finance)

ISBN : 9780996182324

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Book Description

Brian Johnson, an investment professional with over 30 years of experience, is the author of three pioneering books on options: 1) Option Strategy Risk / Return Ratios, 2) Exploiting Earnings Volatility, and 3) Option Income Strategy Trade Filters. His new in-depth (80+ page) article, Option Strategy Hedging and Risk Management, presents a comprehensive analytical framework and accompanying spreadsheet tools for managing and hedging option strategy risk. Drawing on his extensive background in option-pricing and on decades of experience in investment management and trading, Brian Johnson developed these practical techniques to hedge the unique and often overlooked risks associated with trading option strategies. These revolutionary new tools can be applied to any option strategy, in any market environment. Option Strategy Hedging and Risk Management is written in a clear, easy-to-understand fashion and explains how to apply market-specific hedging techniques, using several different hedging vehicles. Created especially for readers who have some familiarity with options, this practical guide begins with a review of position sizing, including a detailed analysis of the implicit assumptions and embedded risks that could have disastrous consequences, particularly for option traders. Chapter 2 includes a comprehensive description and analysis of the actual option strategy, position model, and trade rules that are used to create real-world option strategy hedges in the subsequent chapters. This is followed by a thorough explanation and a concrete example of how to use futures to hedge option strategy exit risk. Surprisingly, futures are not well understood in the option community and very few traders employ this simple, effective, and virtually free hedging tool. The next two chapters present a common analytical and hedging framework that is used to identify the most cost-effective hedging solutions for an actual option strategy in a real-world market environment. The process used to identify the lowest-cost hedging solution using actual VIX call options is explained in Chapter 4, followed by the same hedging analysis using put options on the underlying security in Chapter 5. All hedging examples in the article use real-time market prices and actual analytical results. Proprietary research is included in the article to provide validation for the analytical framework. The article was written to be accessible to a wide audience, so very few mathematical formulas are provided in the text. However, several important formulas are included to facilitate the understanding of important concepts, and to provide further research opportunities for inquisitive traders. The article also includes thirty separate graphs and tables to illustrate how the tools can be used in practice. Perhaps most important, Option Strategy Hedging and Risk Management includes a download link to the accompanying Excel spreadsheet with macros designed to perform all of the position sizing and hedging calculations in the article. Chapters 1, 3, 4, and 5 all have their own dedicated tabs in the spreadsheet. The data from the article is included in the spreadsheet, which allows the reader to reproduce all of the examples from the article. All of the spreadsheet functions are automated through the use of push-button macros, making spreadsheet operation as simple as possible. Finally, Chapter 6 examines practical considerations and prospective applications of these innovative new tools.



Jeff Augen's Options Trading Strategies

Author : Jeff Augen

Publisher : FT Press

Page : 775 pages

File Size : 41,50 MB

Release : 2012

Category : Business & Economics

ISBN : 0133035360

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Book Description

Breakthrough option strategies from Jeff Augen: Three books packed with new tools and strategies for earning higher, more consistent profits and systematically controlling risk! In three remarkable books, Jeff Augen teaches you dozens of up-to-the-minute option trading strategies and techniques for earning powerful, consistent profits! The Option Trader's Workbook, Second Edition offers start-to-finish hands-on practice with every leading strategy, including the newest trading techniques. Through hundreds of realistic problems (each with fully explained solutions), you'll walk through trades designed to profit from changing prices, volatility, and time decay...plus new ways to use CBOE Weekly Options Expiration options, collars, covered calls, covered puts, ratio and variance trading, VIX options, volatility ETFs, and more...all without risking a dime! In Trading Options at Expiration: Strategies and Models for Winning the Endgame, Augen reveals new ways to structure positions that profit from predictable end-of-contract price distortions with remarkably low risk. Packed with brand-new statistical models, minute-by-minute pricing analyses, and optimized strategies, this book teaches you how to create trades that regularly deliver returns of 40%--300% with just two days of market exposure per month, or even less. Finally, in The Volatility Edge in Options Trading: New Technical Strategies for Investing in Unstable Markets, Augen introduces breakthrough strategies for identifying and profiting from subtle price distortions that arise from changes in market volatility. Drawing on more than a decade of never-before-published research, Augen shows option traders how to study historical price changes, mitigate risk, limit market exposure, and structure mathematically sound high-return positions. You'll even discover how to build your own customized, low-cost analytical toolset to transform these state-of-the-art strategies into practical buy/sell signals!



Trading Volatility

Author : Colin Bennett

Publisher :

Page : 316 pages

File Size : 37,76 MB

Release : 2014-08-17

Category :

ISBN : 9781461108757

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Book Description

This publication aims to fill the void between books providing an introduction to derivatives, and advanced books whose target audience are members of quantitative modelling community. In order to appeal to the widest audience, this publication tries to assume the least amount of prior knowledge. The content quickly moves onto more advanced subjects in order to concentrate on more practical and advanced topics. "A master piece to learn in a nutshell all the essentials about volatility with a practical and lively approach. A must read!" Carole Bernard, Equity Derivatives Specialist at Bloomberg "This book could be seen as the 'volatility bible'!" Markus-Alexander Flesch, Head of Sales & Marketing at Eurex "I highly recommend this book both for those new to the equity derivatives business, and for more advanced readers. The balance between theory and practice is struck At-The-Money" Paul Stephens, Head of Institutional Marketing at CBOE "One of the best resources out there for the volatility community" Paul Britton, CEO and Founder of Capstone Investment Advisors "Colin has managed to convey often complex derivative and volatility concepts with an admirable simplicity, a welcome change from the all-too-dense tomes one usually finds on the subject" Edmund Shing PhD, former Proprietary Trader at BNP Paribas "In a crowded space, Colin has supplied a useful and concise guide" Gary Delany, Director Europe at the Options Industry Council



Volatility Trading, + website

Author : Euan Sinclair

Publisher : John Wiley & Sons

Page : 228 pages

File Size : 11,92 MB

Release : 2008-06-23

Category : Business & Economics

ISBN : 0470181990

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Book Description

In Volatility Trading, Sinclair offers you a quantitative model for measuring volatility in order to gain an edge in your everyday option trading endeavors. With an accessible, straightforward approach. He guides traders through the basics of option pricing, volatility measurement, hedging, money management, and trade evaluation. In addition, Sinclair explains the often-overlooked psychological aspects of trading, revealing both how behavioral psychology can create market conditions traders can take advantage of-and how it can lead them astray. Psychological biases, he asserts, are probably the drivers behind most sources of edge available to a volatility trader. Your goal, Sinclair explains, must be clearly defined and easily expressed-if you cannot explain it in one sentence, you probably aren't completely clear about what it is. The same applies to your statistical edge. If you do not know exactly what your edge is, you shouldn't trade. He shows how, in addition to the numerical evaluation of a potential trade, you should be able to identify and evaluate the reason why implied volatility is priced where it is, that is, why an edge exists. This means it is also necessary to be on top of recent news stories, sector trends, and behavioral psychology. Finally, Sinclair underscores why trades need to be sized correctly, which means that each trade is evaluated according to its projected return and risk in the overall context of your goals. As the author concludes, while we also need to pay attention to seemingly mundane things like having good execution software, a comfortable office, and getting enough sleep, it is knowledge that is the ultimate source of edge. So, all else being equal, the trader with the greater knowledge will be the more successful. This book, and its companion CD-ROM, will provide that knowledge. The CD-ROM includes spreadsheets designed to help you forecast volatility and evaluate trades together with simulation engines.



Option Income Strategy Trade Filters

Author : Brian Johnson

Publisher :

Page : 110 pages

File Size : 48,28 MB

Release : 2016-11

Category : Investment analysis

ISBN : 9780996182317

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Book Description

Brian Johnson, a professional investment manager with many years of trading and teaching experience, is the author of two pioneering books on options: 1) Option Strategy Risk / Return Ratios: A Revolutionary New Approach to Optimizing, Adjusting, and Trading Any Option Income Strategy, and 2) Exploiting Earnings Volatility: An Innovative New Approach to Evaluating, Optimizing, and Trading Option Strategies to Profit from Earnings Announcements. His new in-depth (100+ page) article, Option Income Strategy Trade Filters, represents the culmination of years of research into developing a systematic framework for optimizing the timing of Option Income Strategy (OIS) trades. His research was based on the analysis of 15,434 OIS trades, each with a comprehensive set of objective, tradable entry and exit rules. The results for each of the 15,000 plus trades were scaled to a constant dollar amount at risk, to ensure all trades were equally-weighted when calculating the performance metrics. The back-test results were all based on actual option prices and are summarized in this article for a selection of back-testing filters, making this one of the most comprehensive studies of option income strategy results ever published. The results of over 100 different back-tests are provided. The OIS strategy back-test results for ten different types of filters are evaluated in this article, including unique filter combinations that delivered exceptional results. A custom market-edge hypothesis was created in advance for each filter type, which was then used to evaluate the filter-specific results. This critical step helped identify robust, exploitable relationships, rather than spurious correlations. Several of the resulting filters generated over 95% winning trades, with average returns of over six percent per trade (including losing trades). The ratios of cumulative gains to cumulative losses were over 20 to 1 for a few of the best performing filters. Option Income Strategy Trade Filters is written in a clear, understandable fashion and provides detailed examples of how to create and test market-edge hypotheses using the recent advances in back-testing software. Very few formulas were included. As a result, the material in the article should be accessible to all option traders. Useful for traders with a wide range of option trading experience, this practical guide begins with a detailed review of option income strategies, including basic examples that provide the requisite foundation for subsequent chapters. Portions of this crucial background material also appeared in Brian Johnson's first book: Option Strategy Risk / Return Ratios. Chapter 2 includes a comprehensive description of the option income strategy, position model, and trade plan used to generate the back-test data. Every entry and exit rule is explained in detail, including actual graphical examples. The performance metrics for the 15,434 unfiltered OIS trades are summarized at the end of this chapter, which provide a performance benchmark for evaluating the effectiveness of the trade filters introduced in the next three chapters. The trade filters are grouped by classification, with a chapter devoted to each class or type. The market-edge hypotheses and corresponding results for trend filters are analyzed in Chapter 3. Unlike trend filters, discriminating filters exclude an increasing percentage of trades as the filter condition or threshold becomes more extreme or restrictive. The discriminating filter market-edge hypotheses and results are analyzed in Chapter 4. Chapter 5 is devoted entirely to a very unique and powerful example of a discriminating filter: the OIS Universal Filter (OISUF). The final chapter examines practical considerations and prospective applications of trade filters and other resources in managing option income strategies in actual market conditions.



Option Strategy Risk / Return Ratios

Author : Brian Johnson

Publisher :

Page : 206 pages

File Size : 45,39 MB

Release : 2014-04-22

Category : Investment analysis

ISBN : 9780692028292

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Book Description

Written by Brian Johnson, a professional investment manager with many years of trading and teaching experience, Option Strategy Risk/Return Ratios introduces a revolutionary new framework for evaluating, comparing, adjusting, and optimizing option income strategies. Drawing on his extensive background in option-pricing and on decades of experience in investment management and trading, Brian Johnson developed these tools specifically to manage option income strategies. Unlike crude rules-of-thumb, these revolutionary new tools can be applied to any option income strategy, on any underlying security, in any market environment. Risk and return are timeless concepts in finance and trading, but this is the first time both concepts have been integrated successfully into a consistent approach for managing option income strategies. Option Strategy Risk/Return Ratios is written in a clear, easy-to-understand fashion and explains how to apply risk/return ratios to condors, butterflies, calendars, double diagonals, and even hybrid income strategies. Created especially for investors who have some familiarity with options, this practical guide begins with an examination of option income strategies and is followed by a review of the option Greeks, the building blocks of option risk management. Next, a critique of common adjustment triggers lays the foundation for a detailed explanation of these exciting new tools: option strategy risk/return ratios. Each option income strategy is explained, evaluated, and ranked using these new tools with complete descriptions and graphical examples. The book includes over sixty separate graphs and tables to illustrate how risk/return ratios behave using specific strategy examples in actual market conditions. The risk/return ratios are then used to introduce a new hybrid strategy that combines the best characteristics of the other income strategies. Finally, the last chapter examines practical considerations and prospective applications of these innovative new tools. Not only are the formulas provided for every calculation, but each risk/return ratio is explained intuitively and depicted graphically. For traders who are not mathematically inclined, Option Strategy Risk/Return Ratios also includes a link to an Excel spreadsheet with macros designed to calculate all of the risk/return ratios introduced in the book. About the Author: Brian Johnson designed, programmed, and implemented the first return sensitivity based parametric framework actively used to control risk in fixed income portfolios. He further extended the capabilities of this approach by designing and programming an integrated series of option valuation, prepayment, and optimization models. Based on this technology, Mr. Johnson founded Lincoln Capital Management's fixed income index business, where he ultimately managed over $13 billion in assets for some of the largest and most sophisticated institutional clients in the U.S. and around the globe. He later served as the President of a financial consulting and software development firm, designing artificial intelligence-based forecasting and risk management systems for institutional investment managers. Mr. Johnson is now a full-time proprietary trader in options, futures, stocks, and ETFs primarily using algorithmic trading strategies. In addition to his professional investment experience, he also designed and taught courses in financial derivatives for both MBA and undergraduate business programs. He has written articles for the Financial Analysts Journal, Active Trader, and Seeking Alpha and he regularly shares his trading insights and research ideas as the editor of www.TraderEdge.Net. Mr. Johnson holds a B.S. degree in finance with high honors from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign and an MBA degree with a specialization in Finance from the University of Chicago Booth School of Business.