Book Description

This paper reviews the determinants of fertility and attempts to extract conclusions that are relevant for fertility reduction policies in developing countries. In the first tier of fertility determinants, socioeconomic development has a decisive effect in lowering fertility in the long run. In the short run, however, and for specific households, the effects are much more tangled. Higher income, for instance, allows households to afford more children, but nevertheless often reduces fertility because of its links to other factors like education. Education, especially for women, fairly reliably reduces fertility, though its effect may take years to appear. Improved health and lower mortality also contribute to lower fertility, through both biological and behavioral channels. The effect of female employment, in contrast, is uncertain and undependable. Urban residence has a pervasive effect in reducing fertility, though much of this is attributable to education and better health. Particular improvements in welfare can therefore be expected to lead to lower fertility, but the effects are neither uniform nor immediate. Development is essential for fertility transition to run its full course.