Forecasting, Uncertainty, and Public Project Appraisal


Book Description

A measure of the probability of commodity price forecasts is not necessary for most project analysis, but it does give users a realistic view of the forecast's precision -- and imposes a useful discipline on the forecaster.




Forecasting, Uncertainty, and Public Project Appraisal


Book Description

A measure of the probability of commodity price forecasts is not necessary for most project analysis, but it does give users a realistic view of the forecast's precision -- and imposes a useful discipline on the forecaster.




Credit Cooperatives in Israeli Agriculture


Book Description

Many businesses suffered with the introduction of anti-inflationary policies in 1985. Only in agriculture did a whole sector -- cooperatives -- collapse financially. The reasons for this failure lie in the character and operating mode of Israeli cooperative credit.




Shifting Patterns of Comparative Advantage: Manfactured Exports of Developing Countries


Book Description

Labor -intensive goods are the developing countries' strongest export items -- and the United States is the chief import market for these goods. What's more, the industrial countries can expect increasing competition in the 1990s in clothing, footwear, leather products, wood manufactures, and some primary metal manufactures.




PRE Working Papers


Book Description







The Front-end of Large Public Projects


Book Description

Large public projects represent major complex investment and whilst there has been much written about how to develop, manage and deliver such projects, practice still does not match up with expectations. In this book, researchers from the Norwegian Concept Research Programme explore the paradoxes between theory and practice in collaboration with experts in the field of project governance. This book delves into the reality of large public projects, to show how they can be managed effectively and efficiently, recognising the realities of their context. It offers a range of practical conclusions as to the paradoxes of the governance and management of public projects. The international spectrum of authors draw their examples from the UK, Norway, Canada, France, Australia and the Netherlands. Bridging the gap between research, theory and practice, this book will benefit academics and researchers in the field of project management and corporate governance as well as those in the practice of public project governance, civil servants and industry practitioners.







Risk, Taxpayers, and the Role of Government in Project Finance


Book Description

December 1996 A perennial question has been the relative cost of public and private finance for investment projects in infrastructure. Klein argues that the apparent cheapness of sovereign funds stems from taxpayers' not being remunerated for the contingent liability they effectively assume. So the proper role for government is to reduce the cost of risk-bearing for all projects by providing a stable and efficient policy framework. Klein concludes that government, through the tax system, cannot really do better than private financial markets at funding infrastructure projects. All the financial advantages of sovereign finance are due purely to coercive powers and are of no social value. Under government finance the taxpayers would bear a contingent liability that, if properly remunerated, would wipe out any cost advantage of sovereign borrowing. Governments should then refrain from investing in projects or firms, whether with equity or with debt. They should not cover commercial risks. In particular, one cannot argue that there is a tradeoff between the low cost of government finance and private efficiency. Private markets will do the best they can to tap low-cost funds while maintaining project discipline. They solve whatever tradeoff there is. The government cannot do better by raising funds. As a corollary, discount rates for private and public sector projects would not be expected to differ (contrary to standard practice). Arguing that the government cannot be expected to improve on the outcome of free financial markets is not to argue that all is the best in the best of all possible worlds and that there is no role for government. Private markets may not always find the best solutions. Market participants constantly search for better ways of trading risks. On average we could not expect governments to do better. More important, governments can significantly reduce the cost of risk-bearing by following prudent macroeconomic policies, supporting secure property rights, and deregulating and liberalizing financial markets so that private players can take the best advantage of low-cost funding opportunities. But it is inefficient to offset the risks created through bad policy by taxpayer-supported funding (which would amount to stealing from investors and compensating them by taking from taxpayers). Multilateral finance institutions should apply their financial instruments to support the development of better government policies - for example, by granting guarantees against policy failures where new policy regimes are not yet credible - and not simply invest in projects or guarantee the full credit risk of loans. This paper - a product of the Private Participation in Infrastructure Group, Private Sector Development Department - is part of a larger effort in the department to analyze issues relating to private participation in infrastructure.