Global Liquidity, House Prices, and the Macroeconomy


Book Description

In this paper we first compare house price cycles in advanced and emerging economies using a new quarterly house price data set covering the period 1990-2012. We find that house prices in emerging economies grow faster, are more volatile, less persistent and less synchronized across countries than in advanced economies. We also find that they correlate with capital flows more closely than in advanced economies. We then condition the analysis on an exogenous change to a particular component of capital flows. We find that a global liquidity shock, identified by aggregating bank-to-bank cross border flows and by using the external instrumental variable approach of Stock and Watson (2012) and Mertens and Ravn (2013), has a much stronger impact on house prices and consumption in emerging markets than in advanced economies. In our empirical model, holding house prices or the exchange rate constant in response to this shock tends to dampen its effects on consumption in emerging economies.







Fundamental Drivers of House Prices in Advanced Economies


Book Description

House prices in many advanced economies have risen substantially in recent decades. But experience indicates that housing prices can diverge from their long-run equilibrium or sustainable levels, potentially followed by adjustments that impact macroeconomic and financial stability. Therefore there is a need to monitor house prices and assess whether they are sustainable. This paper focuses on fundamentals expected to drive long run trends in house prices, including institutional and structural factors. The scale of potential valuation gaps is gauged on the basis of a cross-country panel analysis of house prices in 20 OECD countries.




The Central Bank and the Financial System


Book Description

As economic advisor to the Bank of England for many years, C. A. E. Goodhart is uniquely positioned to assess the role of the central bank in the modern financial system. This book brings together twenty-one of his previously published articles dealing with the changing functions of central banks over time, recent efforts to maintain price stability, and debates over specific financial regulation proposals in the UK. Although the current day-to-day operations of central banks are subject to continuous comment and frequent criticism, their structural role within the economic system as a whole has generally been accepted without much question, despite several attempts by economists in recent decades to challenge the value of the institution. C. A. E. Goodhart brings his knowledge of both the theoretical arguments and the actual working of central banks to bear in these essays. Part I looks at the general purposes and functions of central banks within the financial system and their evolution over time. Part II concentrates on the current objectives and operations of central banks, and the maintenance of price stability in particular. Part III analyzes the broader issues of financial regulation.




Macroprudential Policies and Housing Price


Book Description

Several countries in Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe used a rich set of prudential instruments in response to last decade’s credit and housing boom and bust cycles. We collect detailed information on these policy measures in a comprehensive database covering 16 countries at a quarterly frequency. We use this database to investigate whether the policy measures had an impact on housing price inflation. Our evidence suggests that some—but not all—measures did have an impact. These measures were changes in the minimum CAR and non-standard liquidity measures (marginal reserve requirements on foreign funding, marginal reserve requirements linked to credit growth).




Macro-financial Stability Policy In A Globalised World: Lessons From International Experience - Selected Papers From The Asian Monetary Policy Forum 2021 Special Edition And Mas-bis Conference


Book Description

Since at least the Great Financial Crisis, authorities around the world have increasingly relied on macroprudential policy to help secure financial stability and complement monetary policy as an integral element of a broader macro-financial stability framework. In today's interconnected global financial system, policy actions taken by the major advanced economies can have spillovers on the rest of the world through their impact on capital flows and exchange rates, potentially generating vulnerabilities across borders. Conversely, in emerging market economies, macroprudential policy as well as foreign exchange intervention and/or capital flow management policy can help mitigate the corresponding impact. This can in turn generate spillbacks on advanced economies — spillbacks that have become more sizeable as the emerging market economies' heft in the world has grown. Yet little is known about these interactions.The contents of this book are based on a conference held on 26-28 May 2021 and jointly hosted by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) and the Bank for International Settlements (BIS). It aims to contribute to existing literature on macro-financial policymaking by providing an overall conceptual framework and documenting the latest global trends and country experiences. In particular, it highlights the role of international spillovers and spillbacks, paying particular attention to emerging market economies. This book is essential reading for academics, graduate students and economic professionals. It can also serve as a handbook for policymakers at central banks, regulatory authorities and other government agencies tasked with designing and implementing macroprudential or more generally macro-financial stability policies. The book will also be of interest to researchers at international organisations.




Financial Crises Explanations, Types, and Implications


Book Description

This paper reviews the literature on financial crises focusing on three specific aspects. First, what are the main factors explaining financial crises? Since many theories on the sources of financial crises highlight the importance of sharp fluctuations in asset and credit markets, the paper briefly reviews theoretical and empirical studies on developments in these markets around financial crises. Second, what are the major types of financial crises? The paper focuses on the main theoretical and empirical explanations of four types of financial crises—currency crises, sudden stops, debt crises, and banking crises—and presents a survey of the literature that attempts to identify these episodes. Third, what are the real and financial sector implications of crises? The paper briefly reviews the short- and medium-run implications of crises for the real economy and financial sector. It concludes with a summary of the main lessons from the literature and future research directions.




The Housing Boom and Bust


Book Description

Explains how we got into the current economic disaster that developed out of the economics and politics of the housing boom and bust. The "creative" financing of home mortgages and "creative" marketing of financial securities based on these mortgages to countries around the world, are part of the story of how a financial house of cards was built up--and then collapsed.




The World Economy through the Lens of the United Nations


Book Description

This edited volume documents the intellectual influence of the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UN-DESA) through its flagship publication, the World Economic and Social Survey (WESS) on its 70th Anniversary. First published in 1948, as World Economic Report, WESS is the oldest continuous post-World War II publication recording and analysing the performance of the global economy and social development trends. It offers relevant policy recommendations and highlights how well the United Nation's (UN) annual report has tracked global economic and social conditions, and how its analyses influenced and were influenced by the prevailing development discourse during the past seven decades. It also critically reflects on its policy recommendations and their influence on actual policy-making and the shaping of the world economy. The World Economy through the Lens of the United Nations reflects on this report, amongst others, to provide valuable insights on global economic challenges and their differential impacts on different groups of countries requiring global policy coordination as well as context specific policy responses. It demonstrates that UN reports have often been ahead of the curve and played a critical role in policy debate, especially in the area of international policy coordination and coherence for balanced global development, and offers rich and path-breaking analyses of contemporary problems of growth, development, trade and stabilization.




One Ring to Rule Them All? New Evidence on World Cycles


Book Description

We estimate world cycles using a new quarterly dataset of output, credit and asset prices assembled using IMF archives and covering a large set of advanced and emerging economies since 1950. World cycles, both real and financial, exist and are generally driven by US shocks. But their impact is modest for most countries. The global financial cycle is also much weaker when looking at credit rather than asset prices. We also challenge the view that syncronization has increased over time. Although this is true for prices (goods and assets), this not true for quantities (output and credit). The world business and credit cycles were as strong during Bretton Woods (1950–1972) as during the Globalization period (1984-2006). For most countries, the way their output co-moves with the rest of the world has changed little over the last 70 years. We discuss the reasons behind these new findings and their policy implications for small open economies.