Book Description

Even before the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Central Region has faced numerous obstacles to building a stable and prosperous future. The region, which encompasses the Middle East, the Horn of Africa, Central Asia, and South Asia, has been beset, especially in post-conflict and fragile areas, by uncertainty as recent decades have brought dramatic shifts in the global system. Challenges to the modern nation-state system, the emboldening of individuals and groups through the advances of the digital age, and the intensification of the great power competition among the U.S., China, and Russia for influence have all provided fertile ground for violent extremist organizations (VEOs) to take advantage of vulnerable, aggrieved, and traumatized populations to fuel radicalization, recruitment, and unrest. Exacerbating the instability in some parts of the Central Region has been the influx of an unprecedented number of internally displaced persons (IDPs) and refugees, particularly in Afghanistan and Syria, inflaming the many social and ethnic cleavages that underpin regional instability. Layered on top of these concerns are sophisticated efforts by regional and global powers to wield economic, security, religious, and cultural levers of power to influence and shape population groups across the region. With the pandemic now exacerbating the stresses in this already fragile region, the U.S.’s strategic objectives are rife for re-examination. While it is still early to understand how the ongoing response to the COVID-19 pandemic will impact U.S. interests, objectives, and capabilities in the Central Region, this book will consider how the COVID-19 pandemic will impact the U.S. military readiness, reach, and effectiveness there. The book will expand current considerations of popular radicalization and information to explore the threats and opportunities posed by the U.S. response to the pandemic across key challenges in the region. Key themes include the Great Power Competition, popular unrest, violent extremism, information and influence operations, and new capabilities for recognizing and preparing for other such black swan events.