Using Models to Estimate Hog and Pig Inventories


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In 2014, the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) engaged the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine to convene a planning committee to organize a public workshop for an expert open discussion of their then-current livestock models. The models had worked well for some time. Unfortunately beginning in 2013, an epidemic that killed baby pigs broke out in the United States. The epidemic was not fully realized until 2014 and spread to many states. The result was a decline in hog inventories and pork production that was not predicted by the models. NASS delayed the workshop until 2019 while it worked to develop models that could help in times both of equilibrium and shock (disease or disaster), as well as alternative approaches to help detect the onset of a shock. The May 15, 2019, workshop was consistent with NASS's 2014 intention, but with a focus on a model that can help predict hog inventories over time, including during times of shock. This publication summarizes the presentations and discussions from the workshop.




Agricultural Statistics


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Hogs and Pigs


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Hogs and Pigs


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Pig Crop Report


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Scale and Access Issues Affecting Smallholder Hog Producers in an Expanding Peri-urban Market


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A dramatic increase over the past fifteen years in domestic pork demand and production in the Philippines has created a potentially profitable opportunity for poor rural and agricultural households. In Southern and Central Luzon, the two biggest markets, however, smallholder pig producers hold only a minority share of total production compared to larger commercial farms. This report seeks to assess the scope for smallholders to remain in business by analyzing the relative profitability of small and large farms. Using field data from pig-producing households, the researchers assess the role of internal and external factors in determining a household's participation in production and marketing and examine the combination of technical and allocative efficiency exhibited by specific farms under particular circumstances. They conclude that the smallest-scale pig producers will not survive market competition and will require alternative occupations. Many others, however, could profit from pig production if policy and institutional changes ensure their access to inputs, to animal health services that can guarantee output quality, and to markets for higher quality output. These findings are a valuable contribution to poverty reduction efforts in the Philippines.







Air Emissions from Animal Feeding Operations


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Air Emissions from Animal Feeding Operations: Current Knowledge, Future Needs discusses the need for the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency to implement a new method for estimating the amount of ammonia, nitrous oxide, methane, and other pollutants emitted from livestock and poultry farms, and for determining how these emissions are dispersed in the atmosphere. The committee calls for the EPA and the U.S. Department of Agriculture to establish a joint council to coordinate and oversee short - and long-term research to estimate emissions from animal feeding operations accurately and to develop mitigation strategies. Their recommendation was for the joint council to focus its efforts first on those pollutants that pose the greatest risk to the environment and public health.







Hog Outlook


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