How Federal Reserve Policies Add to Hard Times at the Pump


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Commodity Prices and Inflation Expectations in the United States


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U.S. monetary policy can remain extraordinarily accommodative only if longer-term inflation expectations stay well-anchored, including in response to commodity price shocks. We find that oil price shocks have a statistically significant, but economically small impact on longer-term inflation compensation embedded in U.S. Treasury bonds. The estimated effect is larger for the post-crisis period, and robust to controlling for measures of liquidity risk premia. Oil price shocks are also correlated with the variance of longer-term inflation expectations in the University of Michigan Survey of Consumers in the post-crisis period. These results are not attributable to looser monetary policy - oil price increases were associated with expectations of a faster monetary tightening after the crisis. Overall, the findings are consistent with some impact of commodity prices on long-term inflation expectations and/or on inflation rate risk.










How Federal Reserve Policies Add to Hard Times at the Pump


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Manufacturers Record


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Free Trade within North America: Expanding Trade for Prosperity


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s countries around the globe were rediscovering political freedom, speakers at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas' fourth annual South A west Conference called for greater economic freedom-free trade in markets free of artificial barriers and misguided regulations, free trade through out a continent (perhaps a hemisphere) that has discarded unnecessary restraints and is poised to emerge as a preeminent competitive force in the 21st century. The Dallas Fed conference, titled "Beyond the Border: Expanding Trade for Prosperity" and held October 24-25, 1992, brought together several hundred participants interested in the possibility of free trade throughout North America and beyond. "How far south can we go?" conference speaker Javier Murcio asked. His answer: "As far as economic reform takes hold. " Around the globe, countries were becoming engulfed in what Henry an "absolute prairie fIre of democracy. " And one of the fIrst Cisneros called places many nations were attempting to exercise this new-found political freedom was in the marketplace. As Richard Fisher put it: " . . . market capitalism is a universally accepted dogma. " "This world . . . is becoming one interdependent marketplace. State and national boundaries have become meaningless. No longer are there such things as domestic or foreign fIrms. Decisionmakers can be anywhere they wish to be because computerization and telecommunications allow people to be every where at once," Fisher said.







Anxious Decades


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"Impressively detailed. . . . An authoritative and epic overview."--Publishers Weekly




Principles for Navigating Big Debt Crises


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Ray Dalio, the legendary investor and #1 New York Times bestselling author of Principles—whose books have sold more than five million copies worldwide—shares his unique template for how debt crises work and principles for dealing with them well. This template allowed his firm, Bridgewater Associates, to antic­ipate 2008’s events and navigate them well while others struggled badly. As he explained in his #1 New York Times best­seller Principles, Ray Dalio believes that most everything happens over and over again through time so that by studying patterns one can understand the cause-effect relationships behind events and develop principles for dealing with them well. In this three-part research series, he does just that for big debt crises and shares his template in the hopes of reducing the chances of big debt crises hap­pening and helping them be better managed in the future. The template comes in three parts: 1. The Archetypal Big Debt Cycle (which explains the template) 2. Three Detailed Cases (which examines in depth the 2008 financial crisis, the 1930s Great Depression, and the 1920s infla­tionary depression of Germany’s Weimar Republic) 3. Compendium of 48 Cases (which is a compendium of charts and brief descriptions of the worst debt crises of the last 100 years) Whether you’re an investor, a policy maker, or are simply interested in debt, this unconventional perspective from one of the few people who navigated the crisis successfully, Principles for Navigating Big Debt Crises will help you understand the economy and markets in revealing new ways.