Idiosyncratic Shocks and the Role of Nonconvexities in Plant and Aggregate Investment Dynamics


Book Description

We study a model of lumpy investment wherein establishments face persistent shocks to common and plant-specific productivity, and nonconvex adjustment costs lead them to pursue generalized (S, s) investment rules. We allow persistent heterogeneity in both capital and total factor productivity alongside low-level investments exempt from adjustment costs to develop the first model consistent with available evidence on establishment-level investment rates. Examining the implications of lumpy investment for aggregate dynamics in this setting, we find that they remain substantial when factor supply considerations are ignored, but are quantitatively irrelevant in general equilibrium. The substantial implications of general equilibrium extend beyond the dynamics of aggregate series. While the presence of idiosyncratic shocks makes the time-averaged distribution of plant-level investment rates largely invariant to market-clearing movements in real wages and interest rates, we show that the dynamics of plants' investments differ sharply in their presence. Thus, model-based estimations of capital adjustment costs involving panel data may be quite sensitive to the assumption about equilibrium. Our analysis also offers new insights about how nonconvex adjustment costs influence investment at the plant. When establishments face idiosyncratic productivity shocks consistent with existing estimates, we find that nonconvex costs do not cause lumpy investments, but act to eliminate them.




Nonlinear Aggregate Investment Dynamics


Book Description

In this paper we derive a model of aggregate investment that builds from the lumpy microeconomic behavior of firms facing stochastic fixed adjustment costs. Instead of the standard sharp (S, s) bands, firms' adjustment policies take the form of a probability of adjustment (adjustment hazard) that responds smoothly to changes in firms' capacity gap. The model has appealing aggregation properties, and yields nonlinear aggregate time series processes. The passivity of normal times is, occasionally, more than offset by the brisk response to large accumulated shocks. Using within and out-of-sample criteria, we find that the model performs substantially better than the standard linear models of investment for postwar sectoral U.S. manufacturing equipment and structures investment data.




Financial Frictions, Investment, and Institutions


Book Description

Financial frictions have been identified as key factors affecting economic fluctuations and growth. But, can institutional reforms reduce financial frictions? Based on a canonical investment model, we consider two potential channels: (i) financial transaction costs at the firm level; and (ii) required return at the country level. We empirically investigate the effects of institutions on these financial frictions using a panel of 75,000 firm-years across 48 countries for the period 1990 - 2007. We find that improved corporate governance (e.g., less informational problems) and enhanced contractual enforcement reduce financial frictions, while stronger creditor rights (e.g., lower collateral constraints) are less important.




The Economics of Inaction


Book Description

In The Economics of Inaction, leading economist Nancy Stokey shows how the tools of stochastic control can be applied to dynamic problems of decision making under uncertainty when fixed costs are present. Stokey provides a self-contained, rigorous, and clear treatment of two types of models, impulse and instantaneous control. She presents the relevant results about Brownian motion and other diffusion processes, develops methods for analyzing each type of problem, and discusses applications to price setting, investment, and durable goods purchases."--Pub. desc.




Handbook of Macroeconomics


Book Description

Handbook of Macroeconomics Volumes 2A and 2B surveys major advances in macroeconomic scholarship since the publication of Volume 1 (1999), carefully distinguishing between empirical, theoretical, methodological, and policy issues, including fiscal, monetary, and regulatory policies to deal with crises, unemployment, and economic growth. As this volume shows, macroeconomics has undergone a profound change since the publication of the last volume, due in no small part to the questions thrust into the spotlight by the worldwide financial crisis of 2008. With contributions from the world's leading macroeconomists, its reevaluation of macroeconomic scholarship and assessment of its future constitute an investment worth making. - Serves a double role as a textbook for macroeconomics courses and as a gateway for students to the latest research - Acts as a one-of-a-kind resource as no major collections of macroeconomic essays have been published in the last decade - Builds upon Volume 1 by using its section headings to illustrate just how far macroeconomic thought has evolved




Secrets of Creation


Book Description

The Mystery of the Prime Numbers uses an innovative visual approach to communicate some surprisingly advanced mathematical ideas without any need for formulas or equations. The issue of prime numbers acts as a gateway into some truly strange philosophical territory whose relevance extends well beyond mathematics.




General Equilibrium Analyses of Economic Policy


Book Description

This dissertation focuses on the consequences of labor market policies, environmental cap-and-trade policies, and monetary policy. These three types of economic policies are admittedly very distinct, but they are tied together by the type of analysis I employ to study these policies. For each, I develop a specific general equilibrium model aimed at highlighting the policy in question and use cutting-edge computational methods to numerically solve the model across an array of potential policies. In the first chapter, The Distributional Effects of Labor Adjustment Cost Policies, I introduce a general equilibrium model with heterogeneous plants and labor adjustment costs to explore both the aggregate and distributional effects of labor adjustment costs. I use the model to analyze the effects of policies that would repeal all or half of state-mandated firing costs in European countries. The model predicts that a full repeal of state-mandated firing costs in the average European country would increase aggregate labor productivity by 0.7%-6.2% while increasing the rate of job turnover by 65%-420%. In the second chapter, Emissions Allowance Allocation in Cap-and-Trade Policies, I present a version of "Impacts of Alternative Emissions Allowance Allocation Methods Under a Federal Cap-and-Trade Program", co-written with Lawrence H. Goulder and Michael Dworsky, published in the Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Volume 60, Issue 3, November 2010, pages 161-181. To examine the implications of alternative allowance allocation designs for industry profits and GDP under a federal cap-and-trade program to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, we employ a general equilibrium model of the U.S. economy with a unique treatment of capital dynamics that permits close attention to profit impacts. Effects on profits depend critically on the relative reliance on auctioning or free allocation of allowances. Freely allocating fewer than 15\% of the emissions allowances generally suffices to prevent profit losses in the most vulnerable U.S. industries. Freely allocating all of the allowances substantially overcompensates these industries. When emissions allowances are auctioned and the proceeds are employed to finance cuts in income tax rates, GDP costs are about 33 percent lower than when all the allowances are freely allocated. The results are robust to policies differing in stringency, the availability of offsets, and the opportunities for intertemporal trading of allowances. In the final chapter, I present \textit{Interbank Lending and Monetary Policy in a DSGE Model}, which was written with Josephine Smith. We build a DSGE model with heterogeneous banks and interbank lending to explore how monetary policy should respond to shocks in the interbank lending market. To do this, we build upon the Bernanke, Gertler, and Gilchrist \citeyear{bgg1999} model of the financial accelerator by introducing a monopolistically competitive banking sector. The model is the first of its kind to include a monopolistically competitive banking sector, heterogeneous banks, and an interbank lending market. We find that the heterogeneous monopolistically competitive banking sector mitigates macroeconomic variance in the model relative to a perfectly competitive banking sector. Multiple banks that imperfectly compete with each other can help absorb shocks better than a single representative bank and mitigate the financial accelerator effect. We also find that financial supply side shocks, as measured by shocks to the productivity of bank loan production, have a much greater effect on the real economy than the demand-side financial shocks. In addition, we find that shocks to the ex-ante most productive banks have a larger effect on the real economy than shocks to the ex-ante least productive banks because the banks with high productivity (ex-ante) have a larger share of the financial market. Analyzing the effect of shocks to interbank lending rates (relative to the central bank policy rate), we find large macroeconomic effects of such policies. Finally, we find that a monetary policy interest rate rule that incorporates the financial sector can actually dampen the effects of traditional non-financial shocks such as productivity, government spending, and monetary policy shocks and leads to a significant decrease in business-cycle volatility.




The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics


Book Description

The award-winning The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics, 2nd edition is now available as a dynamic online resource. Consisting of over 1,900 articles written by leading figures in the field including Nobel prize winners, this is the definitive scholarly reference work for a new generation of economists. Regularly updated! This product is a subscription based product.




Households as Corporate Firms


Book Description

Introduction; 2.




The Business Review


Book Description