Author : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 183 pages
File Size : 41,3 MB
Release : 2006-12-15
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1589065816
This is the final issue for 2006 (Volume 53), and contains another paper in the occasional Special Data Section that seeks to measure financial development in the Middle East and North Africa by utilizing a new database. The issue also contains a comment from Jacques J. Polak on parity reversion in real exchange rates.
Author : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 166 pages
File Size : 13,66 MB
Release : 2006-06-29
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781589065178
Noteworthy among the six papers appearing in this latest issue of the IMF's peer-reviewed journal is another installment in the Special Data Section. Anthony Pellechio and John Cady from the IMF's Statistics Department take a close look at differences in IMF data; how and when they could occur; and what the implications of such differences might be for end-users of the IMF's data.
Author : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 296 pages
File Size : 27,81 MB
Release : 2009-11-04
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1589069102
This paper empirically evaluates four types of costs that may result from an international sovereign default: reputational costs, international trade exclusion costs, costs to the domestic economy through the financial system, and political costs to the authorities. It finds that the economic costs are generally significant but short-lived, and sometimes do not operate through conventional channels. The political consequences of a debt crisis, by contrast, seem to be particularly dire for incumbent governments and finance ministers, broadly in line with what happens in currency crises.
Author : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 248 pages
File Size : 31,17 MB
Release : 2009-07-31
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1589068203
Studies of the impact of trade openness on growth are based either on crosscountry analysis—which lacks transparency—or case studies—which lack statistical rigor. This paper applies a transparent econometric method drawn from the treatment evaluation literature (matching estimators) to make the comparison between treated (that is, open) and control (that is, closed) countries explicit while remaining within a statistical framework. Matching estimators highlight that common cross-country evidence is based on rather far-fetched country comparisons, which stem from the lack of common support of treated and control countries in the covariate space. The paper therefore advocates paying more attention to appropriate sample restriction in crosscountry macro research.
Author : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 216 pages
File Size : 41,9 MB
Release : 2004-11-23
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781589063518
This paper tests uncovered interest parity (UIP) using interest rates on longer maturity bonds for the Group of Seven countries. These long-horizon regressions yield much more support for UIP—all of the coefficients on interest differentials are of the correct sign, and almost all are closer to the UIP value of unity than to zero. The paper also analyzes the decision by a government facing electoral uncertainty to implement structural reforms in the presence of fiscal restraints similar to the Stability and Growth Pact.
Author : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 292 pages
File Size : 24,17 MB
Release : 1990-01-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1451973063
This paper analyzes macroeconomic effects of projected population aging in industrial countries. The effects of population aging are examined with a theoretical model and simulations of the IMF’s multiregion econometric model (MULTIMOD). The study highlights that an older population will consume more of aggregate disposable income, require higher government expenditure, and decrease labor supply. These effects should raise real interest rates and lower capital stock and output. Effects on current balances will depend on the relative speed and extent of aging.
Author : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 168 pages
File Size : 33,64 MB
Release : 1998-01-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1451973608
This paper presents international evidence on the determinants of trade dynamics. It provides some new empirical perspectives on the relationship between international trade and macroeconomic fluctuations in industrial economies. A comprehensive set of stylized facts concerning fluctuations in trade variables and their determinants is presented. A measure of the quantitative importance of international trade for the propagation of domestic business cycles is then constructed, focusing on the role of external trade as a catalyst for cyclical recoveries.
Author : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 120 pages
File Size : 16,47 MB
Release : 1997-01-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1451973462
This paper studies the case of Mexico to examine determinants of banking system fragility. The paper tests empirically the proposition that bank fragility is determined by bank-specific factors, macroeconomic conditions, and potential contagion effects. The methodology allows the variables that determine bank failure to differ from those that influence banks’ time to failure (or survival rate). Based on the indicators of fragility of individual banks, the paper constructs an index of fragility for the banking system. The framework is applied to the Mexican financial crisis that began in 1994.
Author : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 188 pages
File Size : 13,11 MB
Release : 1996-01-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1451973446
This paper examines the volatility and predictability of emerging stock markets. A range of measures suggests that, despite perceptions to the contrary, the volatility of emerging markets may have fallen rather than risen on average. Also, although the autocorrelations in emerging market returns appear to turn negative at horizons of a year or more, the magnitude of these return reversals is not that much larger than reversals in some mature markets. One interpretation of the results would be that emerging markets have not consistently been subject to fads or bubbles, or at least no more so than in some industrial countries.
Author : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 280 pages
File Size : 15,44 MB
Release : 1995-01-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 145197339X
This paper analyzes long-term exchange rate modeling. The paper reviews the literature that tests for a unit root in real exchange rates and the closely related work on testing for a unit root in the residual from a regression of the nominal exchange rate on relative prices. It argues that the balance of evidence is supportive of the existence of some form of long-term exchange rate relationship. The paper highlights that the form of this relationship, however, does not accord exactly with a traditional representation of the long-term exchange rate.
