Inevitable Surprises


Book Description

The world we live in today is more volatile than ever. The security of free nations is threatened by rogue states, the global economy is in flux, and the rapid advance of technology forces constant reevaluation of our society. With so many powerful forces at work and seemingly unpredictable events occurring, to many the future seems dark, and its possibilities frightening. Peter Schwartz disagrees. A world-renowned visionary in the field of scenario planning, Schwartz’s startling—and accurate— predictions have been employed by government agencies and major corporations for more than twenty-five years. He argues that the future is foreseeable, and that by examining the dynamics at work today we can predict the “inevitable surprises” of tomorrow. Timely and thought-provoking, Inevitable Surprises is a book that no one with an interest in business—or the future of our society—can afford to miss.




Summary: Inevitable Surprises


Book Description

The must-read summary of Peter Schwartz's book: "Inevitable Surprises: Thinking Ahead in a Time of Turbulence". This complete summary of the ideas from Peter Schwartz's book "Inevitable Surprises" shows that most of the "surprises" that will hit the economic world in the next 25 years are actually predictable and inevitable. In his book, the author explains how every savvy businessperson should be aware of these changes and their driving forces, as they will provide commercial opportunities, as well as pitfalls that they can plan to avoid. This summary will teach you how can plan to make and market products that will be successful with the upcoming changes and form a long-term strategy that will make sure you come out on top. Added-value of this summary: • Save time • Understand key concepts • Expand your knowledge To learn more, read "Inevitable Surprises" and discover how you can predict future changes and make preparations today to ensure the success of your business tomorrow.




Abrupt Climate Change


Book Description

The climate record for the past 100,000 years clearly indicates that the climate system has undergone periodic-and often extreme-shifts, sometimes in as little as a decade or less. The causes of abrupt climate changes have not been clearly established, but the triggering of events is likely to be the result of multiple natural processes. Abrupt climate changes of the magnitude seen in the past would have far-reaching implications for human society and ecosystems, including major impacts on energy consumption and water supply demands. Could such a change happen again? Are human activities exacerbating the likelihood of abrupt climate change? What are the potential societal consequences of such a change? Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises looks at the current scientific evidence and theoretical understanding to describe what is currently known about abrupt climate change, including patterns and magnitudes, mechanisms, and probability of occurrence. It identifies critical knowledge gaps concerning the potential for future abrupt changes, including those aspects of change most important to society and economies, and outlines a research strategy to close those gaps. Based on the best and most current research available, this book surveys the history of climate change and makes a series of specific recommendations for the future.




Abrupt Impacts of Climate Change


Book Description

Climate is changing, forced out of the range of the past million years by levels of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases not seen in the Earth's atmosphere for a very, very long time. Lacking action by the world's nations, it is clear that the planet will be warmer, sea level will rise, and patterns of rainfall will change. But the future is also partly uncertain-there is considerable uncertainty about how we will arrive at that different climate. Will the changes be gradual, allowing natural systems and societal infrastructure to adjust in a timely fashion? Or will some of the changes be more abrupt, crossing some threshold or "tipping point" to change so fast that the time between when a problem is recognized and when action is required shrinks to the point where orderly adaptation is not possible? Abrupt Impacts of Climate Change is an updated look at the issue of abrupt climate change and its potential impacts. This study differs from previous treatments of abrupt changes by focusing on abrupt climate changes and also abrupt climate impacts that have the potential to severely affect the physical climate system, natural systems, or human systems, often affecting multiple interconnected areas of concern. The primary timescale of concern is years to decades. A key characteristic of these changes is that they can come faster than expected, planned, or budgeted for, forcing more reactive, rather than proactive, modes of behavior. Abrupt Impacts of Climate Change summarizes the state of our knowledge about potential abrupt changes and abrupt climate impacts and categorizes changes that are already occurring, have a high probability of occurrence, or are unlikely to occur. Because of the substantial risks to society and nature posed by abrupt changes, this report recommends the development of an Abrupt Change Early Warning System that would allow for the prediction and possible mitigation of such changes before their societal impacts are severe. Identifying key vulnerabilities can help guide efforts to increase resiliency and avoid large damages from abrupt change in the climate system, or in abrupt impacts of gradual changes in the climate system, and facilitate more informed decisions on the proper balance between mitigation and adaptation. Although there is still much to learn about abrupt climate change and abrupt climate impacts, to willfully ignore the threat of abrupt change could lead to more costs, loss of life, suffering, and environmental degradation. Abrupt Impacts of Climate Change makes the case that the time is here to be serious about the threat of tipping points so as to better anticipate and prepare ourselves for the inevitable surprises.




Leading Organizations


Book Description

The Second Edition of Leading Organizations offers an expanded focus on the fluid roles of leaders and participants (followers) and their mutual responsibility for organizational leadership. Like the first edition, this text contains chapters on implementing the organization's mission, structure, culture and strategy written by leading scholars in the fieild. New features include: - Strategic leadership - Virtual leadership - Leadership, organizational change, and conflict - Building a culture of leadership




Fishery Science and Management


Book Description

This volume is concerned with the role of science in fishery management. While this has traditionally been considered as largely a biological problem with clear biological objectives, close examination suggests that management decisions are largely controlled by political, social and economic considerations, biologically constrained. The biologist now has the task of reducing the uncertainties of the venture rather than determining its priorities or its allocation of benefits. The uncertainties arise in part because of lack of understanding of the ecological systems involved, the limited availability of critical information, and the unpredictability of driving forces. The volume reviews the assumptions and simplifications of fishery models, examines the decision making framework in fishery management, and compares management practices in North America, Japan, and Northern Europe. A compilation of fishery management objectives in international agreements and U.S. laws is included.




The Strategic Management of Health Care Organizations


Book Description

A comprehensive guide to effective strategic management of health care organizations. Strategic Management of Health Care Organizations provides essential guidance for leading health care organizations through strategic management. This structured approach to strategic management examines the processes of strategic thinking, consensus building and documentation of that thinking into a strategic plan, and creating and maintaining strategic momentum – all essential for coping with the rapidly evolving health care industry. Strategic Management of Health Care Organizations fully explains how strategic managers must become strategic thinkers with the ability to evaluate a changing industry, analyze data, question assumptions, and develop new ideas. The book guides readers through the strategic planning process demonstrating how to incorporate strategic thinking and create and document a clear and coherent plan of action. In addition, the all-important processes of creating and maintaining the strategic momentum of the organization are fully described. Finally, the text demonstrates how strategic managers in carrying out the strategic plan, must evaluate its success, learn more about what works, and incorporate new strategic thinking into operations and subsequent planning. This strategic management approach has become the de facto standard for health care management as leadership and strategic management are more critical than ever in coping with an industry in flux. This book provides heath care management students as well as health care administrators with foundational guidance on strategic management concepts and practices, tailored to the unique needs of the health care industry. Included are a clear discussion of health services external analysis, organizational internal analysis, the development of directional strategies, strategy alternative identification and evaluation, and the development and management of implementation strategies providing an informative and insightful resource for anyone in the field. This new eighth edition has been fully updated to reflect new insights into strategic thinking, new methods to conceptualize and document critical environmental issues, practical steps for carrying out each of the strategic management processes, industry and management essentials for strategic thinkers , and new case studies for applying the strategic management processes. More specifically, readers of this edition will be able to: Create a process for developing a strategic plan for a health care organization. Map and analyze external issues, trends, and events in the general environment, the health care system, and the service area. Conduct a comprehensive service area competitor analysis. Perform an internal analysis and determine the competitive advantages and competitive disadvantages. Develop directional strategies. Identify strategic alternatives and make rational strategic decisions for a health care organization. Develop a comprehensive strategy for a health care organization. Create effective value-adding service delivery and support strategies. Translate service delivery and support plans into specific action plans. The health care industry’s revolutionary change remains ongoing and organizational success depends on leadership. Strategic management has become the single clearest manifestation of effective leadership of health care organizations and the strategic management framework’s strengths are needed now more than ever. The Strategic Management of Health Care Organizations provides comprehensive guidance and up-to-date practices to help leaders keep their organizations on track.




Business Planning for Turbulent Times


Book Description

The world is increasingly turbulent and complex, awash with disruptions, tipping points and knock-on effects. These range from the impacts of warfare in the Middle East on energy futures, investment and global currencies to the vast and unpredictable impacts of climate change. All this threatens established strategic planning methods. This book is for business and organizational leaders who want and need to think through how best to deal with increasing turbulence, and with the complexity and uncertainty that come with it. The authors explain in clear language how future orientation and, specifically, modern scenario techniques help to address these conditions. They draw on examples from a wide variety of international settings and circumstances including large corporations, inter-governmental organizations, small firms and municipalities. Readers will be inspired to try out scenario approaches themselves to better address the turbulence that affects them and others with whom they work, live and do business. A key feature of the book is the exchange of insights across the academic-practitioner divide. Scholars of scenario thinking and organizational environments will appreciate the authors' conceptual and methodological advances. What has previously remained jargon only accessible to the highest level of corporate and government futures planners here becomes comprehensible to a wider business and practitioner community.




Saying Hello; Waving Goodbye


Book Description

Remarkable scientific research, mapping the human genome, reveals how similar we all are to each other. Only a tiny fraction of difference separates us one from another. Each of us says "Hello" to our individual experience here on earth, and each of us will ultimately and assuredly say "Goodbye." Between those landmark events in our lives, there are all kinds and types of "Hellos" and "Goodbyes," some happy; some sad; some funny-and all part of the amazing school called life. This book awakens us to both the glitter, and sometimes the gloom, that life presents on an almost daily basis. It awakens a realization that life is truly important and meaningful, and that each day is a gift to be opened and treasured.




Conflict and Cooperation


Book Description

Allan Schmid’s innovative text, Conflict and Cooperation: Institutional and Behavioral Economics,investigates "the rules of the game," how institutions--both formal and informal--affect these rules, and how these rules are changed to serve competing interests. This text addresses both formal and informal institutions and the impact of alternative institutions, as well as institutional change and evolution. With its broad applications and numerous practice and discussion questions, this book will be appealing not only to students of economics, but also to those studying sociology, law, and political science. Addresses formal and informal institutions, the impact of alternative institutions, and institutional change and evolution. Presents a framework open to changing preferences, bounded rationality, and evolution. Explains how to form empirically testable hypotheses using experiments, case studies, and econometrics. Includes numerous practice and discussion questions.