Inflation, Nominal Interest Rates, and the Variability of Output


Book Description

This paper examines the distribution of output around capacity when money demand is a nonlinear function of the nominal interest rate such that nominal interest rates cannot become negative. When fluctuations in output result primarily from disturbances to the money market, the variance of output is shown to be an increasing function of the trend inflation rate. When they result from disturbances to the goods market, the variance of output is a decreasing function of the trend inflation rate. When both disturbances are significant, there exists, in general, a critical non-zero trend inflation rate that minimizes the variance of output.




Why Inflation Targeting?


Book Description

This is the second chapter of a forthcoming monograph entitled "On Implementing Full-Fledged Inflation-Targeting Regimes: Saying What You Do and Doing What You Say." We begin by discussing the costs of inflation, including their role in generating boom-bust cycles. Following a general discussion of the need for a nominal anchor, we describe a specific type of monetary anchor, the inflation-targeting regime, and its two key intellectual roots-the absence of long-run trade-offs and the time-inconsistency problem. We conclude by providing a brief introduction to the way in which inflation targeting works.




The Great Inflation


Book Description

Controlling inflation is among the most important objectives of economic policy. By maintaining price stability, policy makers are able to reduce uncertainty, improve price-monitoring mechanisms, and facilitate more efficient planning and allocation of resources, thereby raising productivity. This volume focuses on understanding the causes of the Great Inflation of the 1970s and ’80s, which saw rising inflation in many nations, and which propelled interest rates across the developing world into the double digits. In the decades since, the immediate cause of the period’s rise in inflation has been the subject of considerable debate. Among the areas of contention are the role of monetary policy in driving inflation and the implications this had both for policy design and for evaluating the performance of those who set the policy. Here, contributors map monetary policy from the 1960s to the present, shedding light on the ways in which the lessons of the Great Inflation were absorbed and applied to today’s global and increasingly complex economic environment.




The Inflation-Targeting Debate


Book Description

Over the past fifteen years, a significant number of industrialized and middle-income countries have adopted inflation targeting as a framework for monetary policymaking. As the name suggests, in such inflation-targeting regimes, the central bank is responsible for achieving a publicly announced target for the inflation rate. While the objective of controlling inflation enjoys wide support among both academic experts and policymakers, and while the countries that have followed this model have generally experienced good macroeconomic outcomes, many important questions about inflation targeting remain. In Inflation Targeting, a distinguished group of contributors explores the many underexamined dimensions of inflation targeting—its potential, its successes, and its limitations—from both a theoretical and an empirical standpoint, and for both developed and emerging economies. The volume opens with a discussion of the optimal formulation of inflation-targeting policy and continues with a debate about the desirability of such a model for the United States. The concluding chapters discuss the special problems of inflation targeting in emerging markets, including the Czech Republic, Poland, and Hungary.




Inflation Expectations


Book Description

Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.




Monetary Policy and Issues


Book Description

In the 1970's, many countries were plagued by persistently high inflation rates, which were thought to cause a significant loss in economic efficiency. Since persistent inflation is considered to be ultimately the result of monetary policy, many countries in the 1990s sought institutional reforms to their central banks to prevent a return to the 1970s experience. A popular reform was to move from giving central banks multiple policy goals to a single mandate of price stability. The single mandate was accompanied by the introduction of an inflation target, in which central banks aim to keep inflation within a pre-defined numerical range. The logic behind these reforms was a belief among proponents that it would remove the political temptation to 'pump up' the economy in the short run at the expense of long-run price stability, and a belief that 'fine tuning' monetary policy in response to every change in economic conditions, was of little value. This book develops quantitative measurements to analyse the success of inflation targeting abroad by comparing both the performance of targeters to non-targeters and the performance of countries before and after targeting was adopted.




Monetary Economics


Book Description

A comprehensive overview of advanced monetary economics, integrating the presentation of monetary theory with empirical formulations and their empirical tests. Unlike most texts this book brings together in a single unified source the core areas of monetary economics. Key features include: * cross-country comparison of central banking in the US, UK and developing countries * theories and empirical studies on money demand, including precautionary and buffer stock models and monetary aggregation * detailed comparison of Keynesian and modern classical macroeconomic theoretical and policy models * a focus on the role of money and financial institutions and growth.




A Macro-Model Approach to Monetary Policy Analysis and Forecasting for Vietnam


Book Description

The paper develops a small New-Keynesian FPAS model for Vietnam. The model closely matches actual data from 2000-2014. We derive an optimal monetary policy rule that minimizes variability of output, inflation, and the exchange rate. Compared to the baseline model, the optimal rule places a larger weight on output stabilization as the intermediate target to achieve inflation stability, while allowing greater exchange rate flexibility. We analyze the dynamics of key macro variables under various shocks including external and domestic demand shocks and a lift-off of U.S. interest rates. We find that the optimal monetary policy rule delivers greater macroeconomic stability for Vietnam under the shock scenarios.




Lectures on Behavioral Macroeconomics


Book Description

6.2 Introducing Asset Prices in the Behavioral Model -- 6.3 Simulating the Model -- 6.4 Should the Central Bank Care about Stock Prices? -- 6.5 Inflation Targeting and Macroeconomic Stability -- 6.6 The Trade-off between Output and Inflation Variability -- 6.7 Conclusion -- 7 Extensions of the Basic Model -- 7.1 Fundamentalists Are Biased -- 7.2 Shocks and Trade-offs -- 7.3 Further Extensions of the Basic Model -- 7.4 Conclusion -- 8 Empirical Issues -- 8.1 Introduction -- 8.2 The Correlation of Output Movements and Animal Spirits -- 8.3 Model Predictions: Higher Moments -- 8.4 Transmission of Monetary Policy Shocks -- 8.5 Conclusion -- References -- Index




Open Economy Macroeconomics in Developing Countries


Book Description

A comprehensive and rigorous text that shows how a basic open economy model can be extended to answer important macroeconomic questions that arise in emerging markets. This rigorous and comprehensive textbook develops a basic small open economy model and shows how it can be extended to answer many important macroeconomic questions that arise in emerging markets and developing economies, particularly those regarding monetary, fiscal, and exchange rate issues. Eschewing the complex calibrated models on which the field of international finance increasingly relies, the book teaches the reader how to think in terms of simple models and grasp the fundamentals of open economy macroeconomics. After analyzing the standard intertemporal small open economy model, the book introduces frictions such as imperfect capital markets, intertemporal distortions, and nontradable goods, into the basic model in order to shed light on the economy's response to different shocks. The book then introduces money into the model to analyze the real effects of monetary and exchange rate policy. It then applies these theoretical tools to a variety of important macroeconomic issues relevant to developing countries (and, in a world of continuing financial crisis, to industrial countries as well), including the use of a nominal interest rate as a main policy instrument, the relative merits of flexible and predetermined exchange rate regimes, and the targeting of “real anchors.” Finally, the book analyzes in detail specific topics such as inflation stabilization, “dollarization,” balance of payments crises, and, inspired by recent events, financial crises. Each chapter includes boxes with relevant empirical evidence and ends with exercises. The book is suitable for use in graduate courses in development economics, international finance, and macroeconomics.