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International Commodity Market Models and Policy Analysis

Author : O. Güvenen

Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media

Page : 276 pages

File Size : 23,85 MB

Release : 2012-12-06

Category : Business & Economics

ISBN : 940091167X

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Book Description

o. Guvenen, University of Paris IX-Dauphine The aim of this publication is to present recent developments in international com modity market model building and policy analysis. This book is based mainly on the research presented at the XlIth International Conference organised by the Applied Econometric Association (AEA) which was held at the University of Zaragoza in Spain. This conference would not have been possible with out the cooperation of the Department of Econometrics of the University of Zaragoza and its Chairman A.A. Grasa. I would like to express my thanks to all contributors. I am grateful to J.H.P. Paelinck, J.P. Ancot, A.J. Hughes Hallett and H. Serbat for their constructive contributions and comments concerning the structure of the book. vii INTRODUCTION o. Guvenen The challenge of increasing complexity and global interdependence at the world level necessitates new modelling approaches and policy analysis at the macroeconomic level, and for commodities. The evaluation of economic modelling.follows the evolution of international economic phenomena. In that interdependent context there is a growing need for forecasting and simulation tools in the analysis of international primary com modity markets.



Commodity Prices and Markets

Author : Takatoshi Ito

Publisher : University of Chicago Press

Page : 346 pages

File Size : 44,56 MB

Release : 2011-03

Category : Business & Economics

ISBN : 0226386899

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Book Description

Fluctuations of commodity prices, most notably of oil, capture considerable attention and have been tied to important economic effects. This book advances our understanding of the consequences of these fluctuations, providing both general analysis and a particular focus on the countries of the Pacific Rim.



A Practical Guide to Trade Policy Analysis

Author : Marc Bacchetta

Publisher :

Page : 0 pages

File Size : 40,98 MB

Release : 2012

Category : Political Science

ISBN : 9789287038128

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Book Description

Trade flows and trade policies need to be properly quantified to describe, compare, or follow the evolution of policies between sectors or countries or over time. This is essential to ensure that policy choices are made with an appropriate knowledge of the real conditions. This practical guide introduces the main techniques of trade and trade policy data analysis. It shows how to develop the main indexes used to analyze trade flows, tariff structures, and non-tariff measures. It presents the databases needed to construct these indexes as well as the challenges faced in collecting and processing these data, such as measurement errors or aggregation bias. Written by experts with practical experience in the field, A Practical Guide to Trade Policy Analysis has been developed to contribute to enhance developing countries' capacity to analyze and implement trade policy. It offers a hands-on introduction on how to estimate the distributional effects of trade policies on welfare, in particular on inequality and poverty. The guide is aimed at government experts engaged in trade negotiations, as well as students and researchers involved in trade-related study or research. An accompanying DVD contains data sets and program command files required for the exercises. Copublished by the WTO and the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development



Global Uncertainty and the Volatility of Agricultural Commodities Prices

Author : B.R. Munier

Publisher : IOS Press

Page : 256 pages

File Size : 49,3 MB

Release : 2012-04-24

Category : Business & Economics

ISBN : 1614990379

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Book Description

The recent global financial crisis exposed the serious limitations of existing economic and financial models. Not only did macro models fail to predict the crisis, they seemed incapable of explaining what was happening to the economy. Policymakers felt abandoned by the conventional tools of the now obsolete Washington consensus and the World Trade Organization’s oversimplified faith in free markets.The traditional models for agricultural commodities have so far failed to take into account the uncertain character of the global agricultural economy and its ferocious consequences in food price volatility, the worst in 300 years, yielding hunger riots throughout the world. This book explores the elements which could help to close this fundamental modeling gap. To what extent should traditional models be questioned regarding agricultural commodities? Are prices on these markets foreseeable? Can their evolution be either predicted or convincingly simulated, and if so, by which methods and models? Presenting contributions from acknowledged experts from several countries and backgrounds – professors at major international universities or researchers within specialized international organizations – the book concentrates on four issues: the role of expectations and capacity of prediction; policy issues related to development strategies and food security; the role of hoarding and speculation and finally, global modeling methods. The book offers a renewed wisdom on some of the core issues in the world economy today and puts forward important innovations in analyzing these core issues, among which the modular modeling design, the Momagri model being a seminal example of it. Reading this book should inspire fruitful revisions in policy-making to improve the welfare of populations worldwide.



Commodity Price Dynamics

Author : Craig Pirrong

Publisher : Cambridge University Press

Page : 239 pages

File Size : 41,11 MB

Release : 2011-10-31

Category : Business & Economics

ISBN : 1139501976

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Book Description

Commodities have become an important component of many investors' portfolios and the focus of much political controversy over the past decade. This book utilizes structural models to provide a better understanding of how commodities' prices behave and what drives them. It exploits differences across commodities and examines a variety of predictions of the models to identify where they work and where they fail. The findings of the analysis are useful to scholars, traders and policy makers who want to better understand often puzzling - and extreme - movements in the prices of commodities from aluminium to oil to soybeans to zinc.



Commodity Models for Forecasting and Policy Analysis

Author : Walter C. Labys

Publisher : Taylor & Francis

Page : 222 pages

File Size : 50,73 MB

Release : 2024-02-01

Category : Business & Economics

ISBN : 1003846718

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Book Description

Originally published in 1984 this book remains as relevant as when it was first published. At that time the oil crises of the 1970s and the growing international debt burden highlighted the extent to which events in primary commodity markets continue to influence the economies of developing and industrialized economies alike. Commodity modelling has become a valuable tool in efforts to predict and understand the behaviour of commodity markets and thereby reduce their fluctuations. This book provides an overview of the nature of the different types of commodity model as well as their diverse applications. In non-technical language the reader is introduced to the underlying modelling methodologies, including their advantages, limitations and commodity specific implications. The book will be of interest to commodity economists, traders and analysts, economic planners and those involved in agricultural, mineral and energy modelling.





Trade Policy and Food Security

Author : Ian Gillson

Publisher : World Bank Publications

Page : 325 pages

File Size : 39,86 MB

Release : 2014-12-04

Category : Business & Economics

ISBN : 1464803064

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Book Description

Increased trade integration holds considerable potential to stabilize food prices, boost returns to farmers, and reduce the prices faced by consumers. This book explores the effects of food price changes on economic welfare in developing countries, and how these can be mitigated through appropriate national policies at the border.



Commodity, Futures and Financial Markets

Author : L. Phlips

Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media

Page : 314 pages

File Size : 34,38 MB

Release : 2012-12-06

Category : Business & Economics

ISBN : 9401133549

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Book Description

Louis Phlips The stabilisation of primary commodity prices, and the related issue of the stabilisation of export earnings of developing countries, have traditionally been studied without reference to the futures markets (that exist or could exist) for these commodities. These futures markets have in turn been s~udied in isolation. The same is true for the new developments on financial markets. Over the last few years, in particular sine the 1985 tin crisis and the October 1987 stock exchange crisis, it has become evident that there are inter actions between commodity, futures, and financial markets and that these inter actions are very important. The more so as trade on futures and financial markets has shown a spectacular increase. This volume brings together a number of recent and unpublished papers on these interactions by leading specialists (and their students). A first set of papers examines how the use of futures markets could help stabilising export earnings of developing countries and how this compares to the rather unsuccessful UNCTAD type interventions via buffer stocks, pegged prices and cartels. A second set of papers faces the fact, largely ignored in the literature, that commodity prices are determined in foreign currencies, with the result that developing countries suffer from the volatility of exchange rates of these currencies (even in cases where commodity prices are relatively stable). Financial markets are thus explicitly linked to futures and commodity markets.



Methods to Analyse Agricultural Commodity Price Volatility

Author : Isabelle Piot-Lepetit

Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media

Page : 238 pages

File Size : 49,60 MB

Release : 2011-06-10

Category : Business & Economics

ISBN : 1441976345

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Book Description

This book examines the issue of price volatility in agricultural commodities markets and how this phenomenon has evolved in recent years. The factors underlying the price spike of 2007-08 appear to be global and macroeconomic in nature, including the rapid growth in demand by developing countries, the international financial crisis, and exchange rate movements. Some of these factors are new, appearing as influences on price volatility only in the last decade. Although volatility has always been a feature of agricultural commodity markets, the evidence suggests that volatility has increased in certain commodity markets. A growing problem is that agricultural price shocks and volatility disrupt agricultural markets, economic incentives and incomes. With increased globalization and integration of financial and energy markets with agricultural commodity markets, the relationships between markets are expanding and becoming more complex. When a crisis such as a regional drought, food safety scare or a financial crisis hits a particular market, policy-makers often do not know the extent to which it will impact on other markets and affect producer, consumer and trader decisions. Including contributions from experts at the World Bank, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, the USDA, and the European Commission, the research developed throughout the chapters of this book is based on current methodologies that can be used to analyze price volatility and provide directions for understanding this volatility and the development of new agricultural policies. The book highlights the challenges facing policy makers in dealing with the changing nature of agricultural commodities markets, and offers recommendations for anticipating price movements and managing their consequences. It will be a practical guide for both present and future policy-makers in deciding on potential price-stabilizing interventions, and will also serve as a useful resource for researchers and students in agricultural economics.