Book Description

"The International Study of Arctic Change (ISAC) is an open-ended, international, interdisciplinary science program. The goal of ISAC is to provide scientific information on rapid arctic change to society and decision makers so they can respond with informed strategies. This requires observation and tracking of arctic changes and understanding their nature, causes, feedbacks and connections among them. ISAC encompasses pan-Arctic, system-scale, multidisciplinary observations, synthesis and modeling to provide an integrated understanding of arctic change and projections of future change. The ISAC Science Plan provides a vision for integrating research among diverse fields and varied users and stakeholders. ISAC facilitates international cooperative efforts to understand the Arctic System and all its components on a pan-Arctic scale. ISAC is positioned to sustain research and coordination activities relevant to environmental arctic change largely initiated during the International Polar Year (IPY). As an active science program ISAC stimulates and provides guidance to develop, maintain and evolve observational activities and scientific understanding. This approach ensures a legacy of relevant high-quality science in the Arctic for decades to come. ISAC is motivated by environmental changes that are already large enough to affect life in the Arctic. The changes illustrated in this document focus on the last decade noting shrinking sea ice cover, rising atmospheric temperature, thawing permafrost, shifts in ecosystems, and linkages to human systems. Substantial future changes are projected to have profound impacts on humankind. Ecosystems are changing, species distributions shifting, and wildlife populations and fisheries are experiencing extraordinary pressures - both natural and anthropogenic. Recent changes in the Arctic have already had significant impacts on infrastructure, on food security, on human health, and on industrial development, and they are influencing domestic responses and international relations. These changes can be measured in economic, social, political and cultural risks and costs and are reflected in human decision-making from the level of the individual to the nation-state, at the international scale, and in feedbacks to the system as a whole. Future system states are uncertain and the lack of predictability hinders efforts to develop strategies for adapting to and managing a changing Arctic. The following key science questions are prompted by observed changes and our current understanding of the Arctic System. Question 1. How is Arctic Change linked to global change? Question 2. How persistent is the presently observed arctic change and is it unique? Question 3. How large is the anthropogenic component of observed arctic change compared to natural variability? Question 4. Why are many aspects of arctic change amplified with respect to global conditions? Question 5. How well can arctic change be projected and what is needed to improve projections? Question 6. What are the adaptive capacities and resilience of arctic ecological systems? Question 7. To what extent are social and ecological systems able to adapt to the effects of arctic change? Question 8. How does environmental change in the Arctic affect the resilience, adaptive capacity, and ultimately, viability of human communities? Question 9. How can new insight into arctic change and its impacts be translated into solutions for adaptation, management, and mitigation? The ISAC science program is structured around three concepts: Observing, Understanding and Responding to arctic change. All the components of the Arctic System must be observed across time and space to understand the scope and evolution of change. Understanding how the system functions and projecting future changes requires models using data that flow from the comprehensive arctic observing system. Moving beyond description to understanding change in the past, present, and future is critical. In the integrated ISAC program the observing, understanding and responding components have been developed in concert around a set of objectives. These are: -Observing the Arctic System covering all domains including the anthroposphere, the atmosphere, the biosphere, the cryosphere, and the hydrosphere. This is based on existing and new long-term observing sites and networks as well as new observing methods. (observing); -Quantifying the anthropogenically-driven component of arctic change within the context of natural variability. (observing); -Understanding the causes of pan-Arctic changes, including changes in the human component, in the context of global change. (understanding); -Improving models to project future changes in the Arctic System, including impact assessment models for responding to change. (understanding); -Exploring options for adaptation to and mitigation of arctic change and suggesting ways that will lead to a path of sustainable use and development. (responding); -Disseminating data and results from ISAC activities to the scientific community, stakeholders and the general public (cross-cuts observing, understanding, responding); Implementation of ISAC is underway, with activities designed to collect specific information relevant to addressing ISAC science questions. Among numerous programs endorsed by IPY and that have contributed to ISAC are the recently sunsetted European Commission funded DAMOCLES Integrated Project (www.damocles-eu.org), and the ongoing United States Inter-agency SEARCH Program (www. arcus.org/search/index.php). These two initiatives were formally linked through the EU/US SEARCH FOR DAMOCLES initiative (www.arcus. org/search/internationalsearch/ damocles.php). They provide an example of how partnerships within ISAC may work. Partnerships within ISAC continue to expand and program building activities are planned in concert with participating programs. An integrated observing system that is designed for pan-Arctic coverage is being developed, with much progress on this initiative made during the International Polar Year. This evolving observing system will constitute the ISAC Observing component; it will ultimately cover the atmosphere, ocean and sea ice, hydrology, cyrosphere, marine and terrestrial ecosystems, and aspects of the human dimensions of the Arctic System. The data flow within each of the ISAC program elements is coordinated by dedicated data information systems following standard data policies operated by participating organizations, programs and projects. Efforts are underway within the ISAC Program Office to coordinate the data management functions among these program elements. Development of the ISAC Understanding component is also underway as modeling is increasingly coordinated among operational ISAC program elements. These activities include model comparisons, as well as coordination of new modeling initiatives, and in the longer-term, expansion of these activities to specifically address societal needs for understanding. The Responding to Change component of ISAC drives the program with an emphasis on societally relevant science. Implementation of the Responding to Change piece began with planning efforts during the IPY, and is one of the major foci for the near future activities of ISAC"--Page iv.