Introducing the Euro- Sting


Book Description

We propose a model to compute short-term forecasts of the Euro area GDP growth in real-time. To allow for forecast evaluation, we construct a real-time data set that changes for each vintage date and includes the exact information that was available at the time of each forecast. In this context, we provide examples that show how data revisions and data availability affect point forecasts and forecast uncertainty. [Resumen de autor]







The World History of Beekeeping and Honey Hunting


Book Description

First published in 2000. Routledge is an imprint of Taylor & Francis, an informa company.




Introduction to Proto-Indo-European and Balto-Slavic Accentology


Book Description

This book offers a comprehensive introduction to Proto-Indo-European, Balto-Slavic and Proto-Slavic accentology; a branch of diachronic linguistics dealing with the development of syllable stress, intonation, and quantity at the word level. Of particular interest in the book is its detailed summary of the major approaches and solutions to accentology of the last thirty years. Furthermore, the book provides a comprehensive overview of the current state of research on accentuation of the Indo-European proto-language and the accentuation of Balto-Slavic languages. Such research is integral to our knowledge of how accentual patterns developed from the reconstructed proto-language to the modern Indo-European languages.




Economic Forecasts


Book Description

Forecasts guide decisions in all areas of economics and finance. Economic policy makers base their decisions on business cycle forecasts, investment decisions of firms are based on demand forecasts, and portfolio managers try to outperform the market based on financial market forecasts. Forecasts extract relevant information from the past and help to reduce the inherent uncertainty of the future. The topic of this special issue of the Journal of Economics and Statistics is the theory and practise of forecasting and forecast evaluation and an overview of the state of the art of forecasting.




Biological Invasions


Book Description

Bioinvasion is fast becoming one of the world's most costly ecological problems, as it disrupts agriculture, drastically alters ecosystems, spreads disease, and interferes with shipping. The economic and environmental damages from alien plant, animals, and microbes in the United States, British Isles, Australia, South Africa, India, and Brazil acco




The Oxford Handbook of Economic Forecasting


Book Description

Greater data availability has been coupled with developments in statistical theory and economic theory to allow more elaborate and complicated models to be entertained. These include factor models, DSGE models, restricted vector autoregressions, and non-linear models.




Nowcasting GDP - A Scalable Approach Using DFM, Machine Learning and Novel Data, Applied to European Economies


Book Description

This paper describes recent work to strengthen nowcasting capacity at the IMF’s European department. It motivates and compiles datasets of standard and nontraditional variables, such as Google search and air quality. It applies standard dynamic factor models (DFMs) and several machine learning (ML) algorithms to nowcast GDP growth across a heterogenous group of European economies during normal and crisis times. Most of our methods significantly outperform the AR(1) benchmark model. Our DFMs tend to perform better during normal times while many of the ML methods we used performed strongly at identifying turning points. Our approach is easily applicable to other countries, subject to data availability.




A World of Insects


Book Description

As we follow the path of a giant water bug or peer over the wing of a gypsy moth, we glimpse our world anew, at once shrunk and magnified. Owing to their size alone, insects’ experience of the world is radically different from ours. Air to them is as viscous as water to us. The predicament of size, along with the dizzying diversity of insects and their status as arguably the most successful organisms on earth, have inspired passion and eloquence in some of the world’s most innovative scientists. A World of Insects showcases classic works on insect behavior, physiology, and ecology published over half a century by Harvard University Press. James Costa, Vincent Dethier, Thomas Eisner, Lee Goff, Bernd Heinrich, Bert Hölldobler, Kenneth Roeder, Andrew Ross, Thomas Seeley, Karl von Frisch, Gilbert Waldbauer, E. O. Wilson, and Mark Winston—each writer, in his unique voice, paints a close-up portrait of the ways insects explore their environment, outmaneuver their enemies, mate, and care for kin. Selected by two world-class entomologists, these essays offer compelling descriptions of insect cooperation and warfare, the search for ancient insect DNA in amber, and the energy economics of hot-blooded insects. They also discuss the impact—for good and ill—of insects on our food supply, their role in crime scene investigation, and the popular fascination with pheromones, killer bees, and fire ants. Each entry begins with commentary on the authors, their topics, and the latest research in the field.