System Dynamics Modeling with R


Book Description

This new interdisciplinary work presents system dynamics as a powerful approach to enable analysts build simulation models of social systems, with a view toward enhancing decision making. Grounded in the feedback perspective of complex systems, the book provides a practical introduction to system dynamics, and covers key concepts such as stocks, flows, and feedback. Societal challenges such as predicting the impact of an emerging infectious disease, estimating population growth, and assessing the capacity of health services to cope with demographic change can all benefit from the application of computer simulation. This text explains important building blocks of the system dynamics approach, including material delays, stock management heuristics, and how to model effects between different systemic elements. Models from epidemiology, health systems, and economics are presented to illuminate important ideas, and the R programming language is used to provide an open-source and interoperable way to build system dynamics models. System Dynamics Modeling with R also describes hands-on techniques that can enhance client confidence in system dynamic models, including model testing, model analysis, and calibration. Developed from the author’s course in system dynamics, this book is written for undergraduate and postgraduate students of management, operations research, computer science, and applied mathematics. Its focus is on the fundamental building blocks of system dynamics models, and its choice of R as a modeling language make it an ideal reference text for those wishing to integrate system dynamics modeling with related data analytic methods and techniques.




System Dynamics Modelling with Vensim


Book Description

This book is the fastest and cheapest way to learn the use of Vensim. The book allows the reader to acquire step-by-step in a time-efficient and uncomplicated the knowledge in the formation and construction of dynamic models using Vensim. Vensim is the most powerful software to create simulation models based on System Dynamics. It is a very friendly software and with the guide of this book it is possible to create the first simulation model in less than 10 minutes. All the exercises are designed to achieve a fast and complete learning. No previous knowledge in mathematics or computer science is necessary.Many times, the models are performed with minimal current data and very few historical data, the simulation models that the student will design in this course accommodate these analyses, with the construction of realistic hypotheses and elaborate behavior models. That's done with the help of software Vensim that helps the construction of the models as well as performing model simulations. At the end of the book, the reader is able to:1. Describe the components of a complex system. 2. Diagnose the natural evolution of the system under analysis. 3. Create a model of the system and present it using the simulation software. 4. Carry out simulations with the model, in order to predict the behavior of the system.The content of this book can be applied in many areas. In the business world, these topics are mainly used to address issues related to Strategic Planning, Business Planning, Leadership Development, Strategic Marketing and Sales, Organization Redesign, Process Improvement, Implementation of operational plans. In general to build and sustain high performance over the long term, and ensure successful implementation of changes. In the academic world, these topics may be used to develop Final Projects or Doctorate, theses on diverse subjects.Index of items Environmental Area3.1. Population Growth 3.2. Modeling the Ecology of a Natural Reserve 3.3. Effects of the Intensive Farming 3.4. The Fishery of Shrimp 3.5. Rabbits and Foxes 3.6. A Study of Hogs 3.7. Ingestion of Toxins 3.8. The Barays of Angkor 3.9. The Golden Number Management Area3.10. Production and Inventory 3.11. CO2 Emissions 3.12. How to Work More and Better 3.13. Managing Faults 3.14. Project Dynamics 3.15. Innovatory Companies 3.16. Quality Control 3.17. The impact of a Business Plan Social Area3.18. Filling a Glass 3.19. A Catastrophe Study 3.20. The Young Ambitious Worker 3.21. Development of an Epidemic 3.22. The Dynamics of Two Clocks Mechanical Area3.23. The Tank 3.24. Study of the Oscillatory Movements 3.25. Design of a Chemical Reactor 3.26. The Butterfly Effect 3.27. The Mysterious Lamp Advanced Exercises (using Vensim PLE PLUS)3.28. Import data from an Excel file 3.29. Building Games and Learning Labs 3.30. Interactive models 3.31. Input Output Controls 3.32. Sensitivity AnalysisIndex of itemsDefined FunctionsSTEPMIN-MAXPULSEIF THEN ELSERANDOMRAMPABSEXPXIDZANDDELAY-SMOOTHTables or LookupsInternal table External tableModel SettingsInitial time not 0Units CheckTime Step valuesStock and Flow DiagramDraw a bi-flowMerge modelsShadow variablesCounter of TimeMultiple viewsAdd commentsInitial value of a StockQualitative variablesCausal Loop DiagramImages on the SFDCurved flowsDelay markSimulationsCompare simulationsReference Mode Simulate SetupSyntheSimIntegration methodOutputsOutput graphsOutput tablesCauses-strip toolLine MarkersX-Y graph




Introduction to System Dynamic Modelling and Vensim Software


Book Description

System dynamics simulation modelling technique is taught to students at undergraduate and graduate levels. The students are taught how to develop a system dynamics model of the system under study. This book is written to help students understand the concepts and fundamental elements of system dynamics simulation, and provide a step-by-step guide in conducting a system dynamics study. This book is suitable for students who are studying system dynamics simulation modelling at undergraduate and graduate levels. It offers the concepts and application of system dynamics as well as provides an approach for modelling effectively. Having read this book, the reader will be able to: Learn the concept of system dynamics simulation and its application, Understand the important steps of modelling process, and Conduct a system dynamics study successfully.




Modeling for Learning Organizations


Book Description

Conventional wisdom says that we can learn from our errors, but errors in the business world can be prohibitively costly. To truly understand how complex business organizations function requires different tools than most managers have been given. Yet managers need methods to understand how their organization works in order to test policies, discover flaws in thinking, and find the hidden leveragepoints within the complex systems they manage. Through a system simulation, the dynamics of the whole system, not just the individual parts, becomes apparent. The outcome of current and future situations becomes possible to predict and with this information, managers can focus on the changes that need to be made. The distinguished contributors to Modeling for Learning Organizations include Jay W. Forrester, Peter Senge, and Arie De Geus. You will learn about leading applications such as: Shell's work on modeling the oil producers. The Management Flight Simulator, a computer-based case learning environment pioneered by John Sterman and others at MIT The landmark Claims Learning Laboratory at Hanover Insurancecompanies. For managers, professionals, academicians, and everyone who recognizes the profound implications of modeling, this book is an excellent resource. It offers a broad understanding of the modeling process, discusses a multitude of case studies, and provides a review of the most recent simulation software.




Business Dynamics: Systems Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World with CD-ROM


Book Description

Today’s leading authority on the subject of this text is the author, MIT Standish Professor of Management and Director of the System Dynamics Group, John D. Sterman. Sterman’s objective is to explain, in a true textbook format, what system dynamics is, and how it can be successfully applied to solve business and organizational problems. System dynamics is both a currently utilized approach to organizational problem solving at the professional level, and a field of study in business, engineering, and social and physical sciences.




Theory and Practical Exercises of System Dynamics


Book Description

As the complexity of our world increases systems thinking is emerging as a critical factor for success, and even survival. How then can people become skilled systems thinkers? The most effective learning experiences combine experience with reflection, theory with practice. Traditionally, theory was taught in school and university, and experience was gained in life outside those walls. But in the world of complex dynamic systems such as a business, society, or ecosystem, everyday experience fails because the time horizon and scope of the systems is so vast-we never experience the majority of the effects of our decisions. And without relevant experience, theory is uninteresting to students. The old ways of learning fail. When experiments in the real world are impossible, simulation becomes the main way we can learn effectively about the dynamics of complex systems. For this reason I'm pleased to introduce Juan Martin Garcia's book 'Theory and Practical Exercises of System Dynamics'. Juan combines theory and practice, experience and opportunities for reflection, so that newcomers to the field can learn for themselves how complex dynamic systems work. The examples span a range of important economic and social issues, from the aging of the population in developed economies to the course of contagious diseases to the accumulation of pollutants in the environment; everyone will find some examples here of direct personal interest. The modeling exercises guide the learner through the process of building a working simulation; students will not only learn about the issues addressed, and in the use of state of the art simulation software, but will develop skill in the modeling process. Juan has written a delightful first introduction to the field of system dynamics and complexity, and provides a much-needed addition to the literature available. John D. Sterman Index System Dynamics - Identifying the Problem - Defining the System - The Boundaries of a System - The Causal Diagram - Feedback - The Limiting Factor - The Key Factors - Classification of Systems - Generic Structures - World Models Building a Model - Flow Diagrams - Computer Simulation - Behaviour of the Model - Analysis of the System - Weaknesses of Models Guide to Creating a Model - Creating a Causal Diagram - Creating a Flow Diagram - Writing the conclusions Environmental System Dynamics - Population Growth - Modeling the Ecology of a Natural Reserve - Effects of the Intensive Farming - The Fishery of Shrimp - Rabbits and Foxes - A Study of Hogs - Ingestion of Toxins - The Barays of Angkor Management System Dynamics - Production and Inventory - Global CO2 Emissions - How to work more and better - Managing of Faults - Project Dynamics - Innovatory Companies - Quality Control - The impact of a Business Plan Social System Dynamics - Filling a Glass - Dynamics of a Segmented Population - The Young Ambitious Worker - Development of an Epidemic - The Dynamics of Two Clocks Mechanical System Dynamics - Dynamics of a Tank - Study of the Oscillatory Movements - Design of a Chemical Reactor The author Juan Martín García is a teacher and worldwide recognized expert in System Dynamics, with more than twenty years of experience in this field. Ph.D. Industrial Engineer (Spain) and Postgraduated Diploma in Business Dynamics at Massachusetts Institute of Technology MIT (USA). He teaches Vensim online courses in http://vensim.com/vensim-online-courses/ based on System Dynamics.




System Dynamics Modelling


Book Description

With NATO's bombing campaign against Serbia now over, what strategic, long-range plans will the alliance employ to restore stability to the region? As the global economy continually changes in response to worldwide events, what investment strategies will firms implement to cope with changing markets? And how can major pharmaceutical companies solve the problem of having newly-developed products abandoned before they can even be launched on the market? This book is designed and written to give the applied statistician an insight into all these areas of investigation.




Modeling the Environment, Second Edition


Book Description

System dynamics is one of the most widely known and widely used methods of modeling.




Community Based System Dynamics


Book Description

Community Based System Dynamics introduces researchers and practitioners to the design and application of participatory systems modeling with diverse communities. The book bridges community- based participatory research methods and rigorous computational modeling approaches to understanding communities as complex systems. It emphasizes the importance of community involvement both to understand the underlying system and to aid in implementation. Comprehensive in its scope, the volume includes topics that span the entire process of participatory systems modeling, from the initial engagement and conceptualization of community issues to model building, analysis, and project evaluation. Community Based System Dynamics is a highly valuable resource for anyone interested in helping to advance social justice using system dynamics, community involvement, and group model building, and helping to make communities a better place.




Modeling the Environment


Book Description

Modeling techniques that allow managers and researchers to see in advance the consequences of actions and policies are becoming increasingly important to environmental management. Modeling the Environment is a basic introduction to one of the most widely known and used modeling techniques, system dynamics. Modeling the Environment requires little or no mathematical background and is appropriate for undergraduate environmental students as well as professionals new to modeling.