› › Macroeconomic Performance During Commodity Price Booms And Busts

Commodity Price Movements and Banking Crises

Author : Mr.Markus Eberhardt

Publisher : International Monetary Fund

Page : 53 pages

File Size : 47,57 MB

Release : 2018-07-06

Category : Business & Economics

ISBN : 1484367820

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Book Description

We develop an empirical model to predict banking crises in a sample of 60 low-income countries (LICs) over the 1981-2015 period. Given the recent emergence of financial sector stress associated with low commodity prices in several LICs, we assign price movements in primary commodities a key role in our model. Accounting for changes in commodity prices significantly increases the predictive power of the model. The commodity price effect is economically substantial and robust to the inclusion of a wide array of potential drivers of banking crises. We confirm that net capital inflows increase the likelihood of a crisis; however, in contrast to recent findings for advanced and emerging economies, credit growth and capital flow surges play no significant role in predicting banking crises in LICs.



Commodity Terms of Trade

Author : Bertrand Gruss

Publisher : International Monetary Fund

Page : 38 pages

File Size : 35,91 MB

Release : 2019-01-24

Category : Business & Economics

ISBN : 1484393856

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Book Description

This paper presents a comprehensive database of country-specific commodity price indices for 182 economies covering the period 1962-2018. For each country, the change in the international price of up to 45 individual commodities is weighted using commodity-level trade data. The database includes a commodity terms-of-trade index—which proxies the windfall gains and losses of income associated with changes in world prices—as well as additional country-specific series, including commodity export and import price indices. We provide indices that are constructed using, alternatively, fixed weights (based on average trade flows over several decades) and time-varying weights (which can account for time variation in the mix of commodities traded and the overall importance of commodities in economic activity). The paper also discusses the dynamics of commodity terms of trade across country groups and their influence on key macroeconomic aggregates.



Is Exchange Rate Stabilization an Appropriate Cure for the Dutch Disease?

Author : Mr.Ruy Lama

Publisher : International Monetary Fund

Page : 45 pages

File Size : 15,31 MB

Release : 2010-08-01

Category : Business & Economics

ISBN : 1455202169

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Book Description

This paper evaluates how successful is a policy of exchange rate stabilization to counteract the negative effects of a Dutch Disease episode. We consider a small open economy model that incorporates nominal rigidities and a learning-by-doing externality in the tradable sector. The paper shows that leaning against an appreciated exchange rate can prevent an inefficient loss of tradable output but at the cost of generating a misallocation of resources in other sectors of the economy. The paper also finds that welfare is a decreasing function of exchange rate intervention. These results suggest that stabilizing the nominal exchange rate in response to a Dutch Disease episode is highly distortionary.



After the Boom–Commodity Prices and Economic Growth in Latin America and the Caribbean

Author : Bertrand Gruss

Publisher : International Monetary Fund

Page : 43 pages

File Size : 28,66 MB

Release : 2014-08-15

Category : Business & Economics

ISBN : 1484330773

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Book Description

After skyrocketing over the past decade, commodity prices have remained stable or eased somewhat since mid-2011—and most projections suggest they are not likely to resume the upward trend observed in the last decade. This paper analyzes what this turn in the commodity price cycle may imply for output growth in Latin America and the Caribbean. The analysis suggests that growth in the years ahead for the average commodity exporter in the region could be significantly lower than during the commodity boom, even if commodity prices were to remain stable at their current still-high levels. Slower-than-expected growth in China represents a key downside risk. The results caution against trying to offset the current economic slowdown with demand-side stimulus and underscore the need for ambitious structural reforms to secure strong growth over the medium term.



Commodity Prices and Markets

Author : Takatoshi Ito

Publisher : University of Chicago Press

Page : 346 pages

File Size : 24,15 MB

Release : 2011-03

Category : Business & Economics

ISBN : 0226386899

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Book Description

Fluctuations of commodity prices, most notably of oil, capture considerable attention and have been tied to important economic effects. This book advances our understanding of the consequences of these fluctuations, providing both general analysis and a particular focus on the countries of the Pacific Rim.



Financial Markets and Economic Performance

Author : John E. Silvia

Publisher : Springer Nature

Page : 469 pages

File Size : 20,95 MB

Release : 2021-07-31

Category : Business & Economics

ISBN : 3030762955

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Book Description

Effective decision making requires understanding of the underlying principles of financial markets and economics. Intellectually, economics and financial markets are genetically intertwined although when it comes to popular commentary they are treated separately. In fact, academic economic thinking appears separate from financial market equity strategy in most financial market commentary. Historically, macroeconomics tended to assume away financial frictions and financial intermediation whereas financial economists did not necessarily consider the negative macroeconomic spill overs from financial market outcomes. In more recent years, the economic discipline has gone through a serious self-reflection after the global crisis. This book explores the interplay between financial markets and macroeconomic outcomes with a conceptual framework that combines the actions of investors and individuals. Of interest to graduate students and those professionals working in the financial markets, it provides insight into why market prices move and credit markets interact and what factors participants and policy makers can monitor to anticipate market change and future price paths. ​



World Economic Outlook, April 2012

Author : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Publisher : International Monetary Fund

Page : 299 pages

File Size : 43,26 MB

Release : 2012-04-17

Category : Business & Economics

ISBN : 1475507038

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Book Description

The April 2012 issue of the World Economic Outlook assesses the prospects for the global economy, which has gradually strengthened after a major setback during 2011. The threat of a sharp global slowdown eased with improved activity in the United States and better policies in the euro area. Weak recovery will likely resume in the major advanced economies, and activity will remain relatively solid in most emerging and developing economies. However, recent improvements are very fragile. Policymakers must calibrate policies to support growth in the near term and must implement fundamental changes to achieve healthy growth in the medium term. Chapter 3 examines how policies directed at real estate markets can accelerate the improvement of household balance sheets and thus support otherwise anemic consumption. Chapter 4 examines how swings in commodity prices affect commodity-exporting economies, many of which have experienced a decade of good growth. With commodity prices unlikely to continue growing at the recent elevated pace, however, these economies may have to adapt their fiscal and other policies to lower potential output growth in the future.



Financial Crises Explanations, Types, and Implications

Author : Mr.Stijn Claessens

Publisher : International Monetary Fund

Page : 66 pages

File Size : 24,52 MB

Release : 2013-01-30

Category : Business & Economics

ISBN : 1475561008

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Book Description

This paper reviews the literature on financial crises focusing on three specific aspects. First, what are the main factors explaining financial crises? Since many theories on the sources of financial crises highlight the importance of sharp fluctuations in asset and credit markets, the paper briefly reviews theoretical and empirical studies on developments in these markets around financial crises. Second, what are the major types of financial crises? The paper focuses on the main theoretical and empirical explanations of four types of financial crises—currency crises, sudden stops, debt crises, and banking crises—and presents a survey of the literature that attempts to identify these episodes. Third, what are the real and financial sector implications of crises? The paper briefly reviews the short- and medium-run implications of crises for the real economy and financial sector. It concludes with a summary of the main lessons from the literature and future research directions.



Commodity Price Dynamics

Author : Craig Pirrong

Publisher : Cambridge University Press

Page : 239 pages

File Size : 19,78 MB

Release : 2011-10-31

Category : Business & Economics

ISBN : 1139501976

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Book Description

Commodities have become an important component of many investors' portfolios and the focus of much political controversy over the past decade. This book utilizes structural models to provide a better understanding of how commodities' prices behave and what drives them. It exploits differences across commodities and examines a variety of predictions of the models to identify where they work and where they fail. The findings of the analysis are useful to scholars, traders and policy makers who want to better understand often puzzling - and extreme - movements in the prices of commodities from aluminium to oil to soybeans to zinc.



Commodity Terms of Trade

Author : International Monetary Fund

Publisher : International Monetary Fund

Page : 36 pages

File Size : 27,33 MB

Release : 2009-09-01

Category : Business & Economics

ISBN : 1451873522

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Book Description

We compile a historical dataset covering nearly 40 years of booms and busts in the commodity terms of trade of over 150 countries. We discuss the characteristics of these events and their effects on macroeconomic performance and, in particular, compare the most recent commodity-price cycle with its historical precedents.