Macroeconomic Stabilization in Transition Economies


Book Description

The essays in this volume explore the special type of policies that were needed in the post-socialist countries of Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union in order to reduce inflation and to stop the fall in output that followed the collapse of Communism. The book contains a number of general studies that discuss the type of reforms needed and how they condition policies and analyze the aggregate relationship between reducing inflation, implementing structural reforms, and renewing the process of growth.




Stabilization and Growth in Transition Economies


Book Description

This paper analyzes the growth and stabilization experience in 26 transition economies in eastern Europe, the former Soviet Union, and Mongolia for the period 1989-1994. Inflation rates have declined significantly in most countries following an inflation stabilization program. Growth resumes after stabilization occurs, typically with a lag of about two years. Reducing inflation thus appears to be a precondition for growth. An econometric analysis of the short-run determinants of inflation and growth illustrates the key roles of fixed exchange rates, improved fiscal balances, and structural reforms in spurring growth and lowering inflation, and confirms that inflation stabilization programs have been beneficial for growth even after controlling for structural reforms.




From Transition to Market


Book Description

This paper presents evidence on the behavior of output and inflation in the transition economies during 1992–95. A regression analysis explores the differences in output performance across the transition economies during this period. The paper then engages in a numerical, somewhat speculative, exercise to assess the long-run growth potential of the transition economies. It concludes that it should take about 20 years for the faster reformers to reach current OECD per capita levels.




The Czech Republic and Economic Transition in Eastern Europe


Book Description

The Czech Republic and Economic Transition in Eastern Europe is the first in-depth, comparative analysis of the Czech Republic's economic transition after the fall of the Communist bloc. Edited by Jan Svejnar,a principal architect of the Czech economic transformation and Economic Advisor to President Vaclav Havel, the book poses important questions about the Republic and its partners in Central and Eastern Europe. The thirty-five essayists describe the country's macroeconomic performance; its development of capital markets; the structure and performance of its industries; its unemployment, household behavior, and income distribution; and the environmental and health issues it faces.In this in-depth, comparative analysis of the Czech Republic's economic transition, an international team of thirty-five economists examine the Republic and its partners in Central and Eastern Europe. Important questions and issues permeate the essays. For example, prior to 1939 the Czech Republic possessed the most advanced economy in the region; is it capable of reestablishing its dominance? Relative to its neighbors, the Republic ranks especially high on some transition-related performance indicators but low on others. What economic effects are related to the 1993 dissolution of the Czech and Slovak governments? And what can be learned by comparing the economic outcomes of two countries that shared legal and institutional frameworks? Data describe the country's macroeconomic performance; its development of capital markets; the structure and performance of its industries; its unemployment, household behavior, and income distribution; and the environmental and health issues facing it. Its most important contributions are its clarifications of the transition process.The authors included in Transforming Czechoslovakia combine the best available data and techniques of economic analysis to assess the replacement of the inefficient but internally consistent central planning system with a more efficient market system. These authors, among whom are central European economic analysts, senior U.S. economists, and Czechoslovakian professors and economic researchers, discuss the country's macroeconomic performance; its development of capital markets; the structure and performance of its industries; its unemployment, household behavior, and income distribution; and the environmental and health issues facing it. The essays vary between presentations of history and policy and technical examinations of data. Together they offer the most comprehensive and detailed assessment of the country's economic transformation in print.This book is important because its essayists compile results and reach conclusions that are broad and credible. The empirical data were gathered on the ground and have been subjected to advanced methodologies, including game theory, industrial organization, and Granger-Sims causality.







Disinflation in Transition Economies


Book Description

In light of the persistence of moderate inflation in many transition economies, this paper analyzes whether inflation resulted from insufficiently tight financial policies and wage pressures or from the protracted adjustment of relative prices. Using a new database for 21 countries, the effect of relative price variability on inflation is estimated within a framework controlling for nominal and real shocks. Money and wage growth were the most important determinants of inflation; relative price variability had a sizable effect at high inflation during initial liberalization and a small effect at moderate inflation. Cost recovery may contribute to variability, particularly in the advanced stages of the transition.




Transition and Economics


Book Description

The transition from socialism to capitalism in former socialist economies has transformed the economic structure. This book provides an overview of research on the issues raised by the shift from collective to private ownership.




The Inflation-Targeting Debate


Book Description

Over the past fifteen years, a significant number of industrialized and middle-income countries have adopted inflation targeting as a framework for monetary policymaking. As the name suggests, in such inflation-targeting regimes, the central bank is responsible for achieving a publicly announced target for the inflation rate. While the objective of controlling inflation enjoys wide support among both academic experts and policymakers, and while the countries that have followed this model have generally experienced good macroeconomic outcomes, many important questions about inflation targeting remain. In Inflation Targeting, a distinguished group of contributors explores the many underexamined dimensions of inflation targeting—its potential, its successes, and its limitations—from both a theoretical and an empirical standpoint, and for both developed and emerging economies. The volume opens with a discussion of the optimal formulation of inflation-targeting policy and continues with a debate about the desirability of such a model for the United States. The concluding chapters discuss the special problems of inflation targeting in emerging markets, including the Czech Republic, Poland, and Hungary.




Exchange Rate Regimes and Macroeconomic Stability


Book Description

The Asian crisis of 1997-1998 was a major influence on macroeconomic thinking concerning exchange rate regimes, the functioning of international institutions, such as the IMF and the World Bank, and international contagion of macroeconomic instability from one country to another. Exchange Rate Regimes and Macroeconomic Stability offers perspectives on these issues from the viewpoints of two Nobel Laureates, an IMF economist, and Asian economists. This book contributes new ideas to the ongoing debate on the role of domestic monetary authorities and international institutions in reducing the likelihood of international financial crises, as well as the problems associated with various exchange rate regimes from the standpoint of macroeconomic stability. Overall, the chapters contained in this volume offer interesting perspectives, which have been stimulated by the recent events in the foreign exchange market. They provide a useful reference for anyone interested in the development of exchange rate regimes, and represent considerable reflection by economists half a century after Bretton Woods.




Money, Crises, and Transition


Book Description

The essays taken on the issues that have fascinated Calvo most as an academic, a senior advisor at the International Monetary Fund and as the chief economist at the Inter-American Development Bank: monetary and exchange rate policy, financial crises, debt, taxation and reform, and transition and growth.