Million Dollar Data: Building Confidence – Vol.1


Book Description

Global warming, our current and greatest challenge, is without precedent. Among the many consequences that are impacting our society, one unanticipated concern involves scientific truth. When the President of the United States, and others in his administration, declare that global warming is fake science, it calls into question what real science is and what real school science should be. I will argue that real science is quality science, one that is based on the rigorous collection of reliable and valid data. To collect quality data requires bending over backwards to get things right, and this is exactly what makes science so special. Truth is made when scientists go this extra yard and devise controlled experiments, collect large data sets, confirm the data, and rationally analyze their results. Making scientific truth sounds difficult to do in the science laboratory, but in reality, there are many straightforward ways that truth can be constructed. In the first of two volumes, I discuss twelve such ways – I call them Confidence Indicators – that can allow students to strongly believe in their data and their subsequent results. Many of these methods are intuitive and can be used by young students on the late elementary level all the way up to those taking introductory college science courses. As in life, science is not without doubt. In the second volume I introduce the concept of scientific uncertainty and the indicators used to calculate its magnitude. I will show that science is about connecting confidence with uncertainty in a specific manner, what I refer to as the Confidence-Uncertainty Continuum expression. This important relationship epitomizes the scientific enterprise as a search for probabilistic rather than absolute truth. This two-volume set will contain a variety of ways that data quality can be instituted into a science curriculum. To support its use, many of the examples that I will present involve science teachers as well as student work and feedback from different grade levels and in different scientific disciplines. Specific chapters will be devoted to reviewing the academic literature on data quality as well as describing my own personal research on this important but often neglected topic.










A History of the Federal Reserve, Volume 1


Book Description

This first volume of Allan H. Meltzer's history of the Federal Reserve System covers the period from the Federal Reserve's founding in 1913 through the Treasury-Federal Reserve Accord of 1951. To understand why the Federal Reserve acted as it did at key points in its history, Meltzer draws on meeting minutes, correspondence, and other internal documents (many made public only during the 1970s) to trace the reasoning behind its policy decisions. He explains why the Federal Reserve remained passive throughout most of the economic decline that led to the Great Depression, and how the Board's actions helped to produce the deep recession of 1937 and 1938. He also highlights the impact that individuals had on the institution, such as Benjamin Strong, governor of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York in the 1920s, who played a large role in the adoption of a more active monetary policy by the Federal Reserve. From attempts to build a new international financial system at the London Monetary and Economic Conference of 1933 to the Bretton Woods Agreement of 1944 that established the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, Meltzer also examines the influence the Federal Reserve has had on international affairs. The second, and last volume of this history covers the years 1951 to 1986 in two parts. These include the time of the Federal Reserve's second major mistake, the Great Inflation, and the subsequent disinflation. The volume summarizes the record of monetary policy during the inflation and disinflation.







The Builders Bulletin


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Domestic Commerce


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Interest Rate Modeling for Risk Management: Market Price of Interest Rate Risk (Second Edition)


Book Description

Interest Rate Modeling for Risk Management presents an economic model which can be used to compare interest rate and perform market risk assessment analyses. The key interest rate model applied in this book is specified under real-world measures, and the result is used as to generate scenarios for interest rates. The book introduces a theoretical framework that allows estimating the market price of interest rate risk. For this, the book starts with a brief explanation of stochastic analysis, and introduces interest rate models such as Heath-Jarrow-Morton, Hull-White and LIBOR models. The real-world model is then introduced in subsequent chapters. Additionally, the book also explains some properties of the real-world model, along with the negative price tendency of the market price for risk and a positive market price of risk (with practical examples). Readers will also find a handy appendix with proofs to complement the numerical methods explained in the book. This book is intended as a primer for practitioners in financial institutions involved in interest rate risk management. It also presents a new perspective for researchers and graduates in econometrics and finance on the study of interest rate models. The second edition features an expanded commentary on real world models as well as additional numerical examples for the benefit of readers.




Economic Review


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