Risk Topography


Book Description

The recent financial crisis and the difficulty of using mainstream macroeconomic models to accurately monitor and assess systemic risk have stimulated new analyses of how we measure economic activity and the development of more sophisticated models in which the financial sector plays a greater role. Markus Brunnermeier and Arvind Krishnamurthy have assembled contributions from leading academic researchers, central bankers, and other financial-market experts to explore the possibilities for advancing macroeconomic modeling in order to achieve more accurate economic measurement. Essays in this volume focus on the development of models capable of highlighting the vulnerabilities that leave the economy susceptible to adverse feedback loops and liquidity spirals. While these types of vulnerabilities have often been identified, they have not been consistently measured. In a financial world of increasing complexity and uncertainty, this volume is an invaluable resource for policymakers working to improve current measurement systems and for academics concerned with conceptualizing effective measurement.




Systemic Risk Modeling: How Theory Can Meet Statistics


Book Description

We propose a framework to link empirical models of systemic risk to theoretical network/ general equilibrium models used to understand the channels of transmission of systemic risk. The theoretical model allows for systemic risk due to interbank counterparty risk, common asset exposures/fire sales, and a “Minsky" cycle of optimism. The empirical model uses stock market and CDS spreads data to estimate a multivariate density of equity returns and to compute the expected equity return for each bank, conditional on a bad macro-outcome. Theses “cross-sectional" moments are used to re-calibrate the theoretical model and estimate the importance of the Minsky cycle of optimism in driving systemic risk.




Quantifying Systemic Risk


Book Description

In the aftermath of the recent financial crisis, the federal government has pursued significant regulatory reforms, including proposals to measure and monitor systemic risk. However, there is much debate about how this might be accomplished quantitatively and objectively—or whether this is even possible. A key issue is determining the appropriate trade-offs between risk and reward from a policy and social welfare perspective given the potential negative impact of crises. One of the first books to address the challenges of measuring statistical risk from a system-wide persepective, Quantifying Systemic Risk looks at the means of measuring systemic risk and explores alternative approaches. Among the topics discussed are the challenges of tying regulations to specific quantitative measures, the effects of learning and adaptation on the evolution of the market, and the distinction between the shocks that start a crisis and the mechanisms that enable it to grow.




Handbook on Systemic Risk


Book Description

The Handbook on Systemic Risk, written by experts in the field, provides researchers with an introduction to the multifaceted aspects of systemic risks facing the global financial markets. The Handbook explores the multidisciplinary approaches to analyzing this risk, the data requirements for further research, and the recommendations being made to avert financial crisis. The Handbook is designed to encourage new researchers to investigate a topic with immense societal implications as well as to provide, for those already actively involved within their own academic discipline, an introduction to the research being undertaken in other disciplines. Each chapter in the Handbook will provide researchers with a superior introduction to the field and with references to more advanced research articles. It is the hope of the editors that this Handbook will stimulate greater interdisciplinary academic research on the critically important topic of systemic risk in the global financial markets.




Globalization and Systemic Risk


Book Description

The impact of globalization of financial markets is a highly debated topic, particularly in recent months when the issue of globalization and contagion of financial distress has become a focus of intense policy debate. The papers in this volume provide an up-to-date overview of the key issues in this debate. While most of the contributions were prepared after the initial outbreak of the current global turmoil and financial crisis, they identify the relative strengths of the risk diversification and risk transmission processes and examine the empirical evidence to date. The book considers the relative roles of banks, nonbank financial institutions and capital markets in both risk diversification and risk transmission. It then evaluates the current status of crisis resolution in a global context, and speculates where to go from here in terms of understanding, resolution, prevention and public policy.




Systemic Contingent Claims Analysis


Book Description

The recent global financial crisis has forced a re-examination of risk transmission in the financial sector and how it affects financial stability. Current macroprudential policy and surveillance (MPS) efforts are aimed establishing a regulatory framework that helps mitigate the risk from systemic linkages with a view towards enhancing the resilience of the financial sector. This paper presents a forward-looking framework ("Systemic CCA") to measure systemic solvency risk based on market-implied expected losses of financial institutions with practical applications for the financial sector risk management and the system-wide capital assessment in top-down stress testing. The suggested approach uses advanced contingent claims analysis (CCA) to generate aggregate estimates of the joint default risk of multiple institutions as a conditional tail expectation using multivariate extreme value theory (EVT). In addition, the framework also helps quantify the individual contributions to systemic risk and contingent liabilities of the financial sector during times of stress.




The Risks of Financial Institutions


Book Description

Until about twenty years ago, the consensus view on the cause of financial-system distress was fairly simple: a run on one bank could easily turn to a panic involving runs on all banks, destroying some and disrupting the financial system. Since then, however, a series of events—such as emerging-market debt crises, bond-market meltdowns, and the Long-Term Capital Management episode—has forced a rethinking of the risks facing financial institutions and the tools available to measure and manage these risks. The Risks of Financial Institutions examines the various risks affecting financial institutions and explores a variety of methods to help institutions and regulators more accurately measure and forecast risk. The contributors--from academic institutions, regulatory organizations, and banking--bring a wide range of perspectives and experience to the issue. The result is a volume that points a way forward to greater financial stability and better risk management of financial institutions.




Stability of the Financial System


Book Description

ÔFinancial stability is necessary. To achieve this common target an on-going dialogue is required between industry, policymakers, academia and other relevant stakeholders. This book provides a welcome and refreshing perspective from different standpoints on the issues at stake, and reminds us of the remaining work ahead.Õ Ð Axel Weber, Chair of Supervisory Board, UBS ÔSince 2008, financial stability has moved to the center of the policy stage. This volume, combining contributions from leading policy makers and academics, is the essential introduction to the issues. Must reading.Õ Ð Barry Eichengreen, George C. Pardee and Helen N. Pardee Professor of Economics and Political Science, University of California, Berkeley, US ÔThere was a world BC (Before Crisis) and there will be a world AD (After Deleveraging) Ð the challenge is to create an effective, efficient yet stable and sustainable financial system for this Ònew worldÓ. This book provides the most comprehensive and thought-provoking basis for action I have seen so far.Õ Ð Paul Achleitner, Chair of Supervisory Board Deutsche Bank AG ÔFinancial stability is an overarching goal. In open and democratic societies, ensuring financial stability is a matter of interest not only to central bankers, academics and financial market players, but also to all well-informed citizens. This book provides an excellent basis for a wide-ranging and rewarding debate.Õ Ð Thomas J. Jordan, Chairman of the Governing Board of the Swiss National Bank ÔThe financial crisis demonstrated conclusively that for central bankers and other policymakers financial stability must always be of paramount concern, for without it the macroeconomy will perform badly and monetary policy will lose its effectiveness. This book underscores the importance of financial stability, laying out the key issues and what must be done to avoid such disasters in the future.Õ Ð William C. Dudley, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, US In the aftermath of the financial crisis, new financial market regulation is being implemented, and increasing numbers of countries are establishing new legislation for macroprudential oversight. Against this backdrop, this thought provoking book provides a platform for the leading international experts to discuss and encourage future debate on financial stability. The breadth and scope of the issues addressed reflect the challenge of developing and consistently implementing a coherent set of financial reforms to promote financial stability. The book advocates the development of financial reforms that are effective in striking the optimal balance between realizing the enormous benefits of efficient financial intermediation, capital allocation and risk management on the one hand, and controlling systemic risks and maintaining financial stability on the other. Making an important contribution to deepening our understanding of the many facets of financial stability, this book will prove a challenging read for policy makers, regulators and central bankers as well as for researchers and scholars in the fields of economics, money, finance and banking.




How Markets Fail


Book Description

How did we get to where we are? John Cassidy shows that the roots of our most recent financial failure lie not with individuals, but with an idea - the idea that markets are inherently rational. He gives us the big picture behind the financial headlines, tracing the rise and fall of free market ideology from Adam Smith to Milton Friedman and Alan Greenspan. Full of wit, sense and, above all, a deeper understanding, How Markets Fail argues for the end of 'utopian' economics, and the beginning of a pragmatic, reality-based way of thinking. A very good history of economic thought Economist How Markets Fail offers a brilliant intellectual framework . . . fine work New York Times An essential, grittily intellectual, yet compelling guide to the financial debacle of 2009 Geordie Greig, Evening Standard A powerful argument . . . Cassidy makes a compelling case that a return to hands-off economics would be a disaster BusinessWeek This book is a well constructed, thoughtful and cogent account of how capitalism evolved to its current form Telegraph Books of the Year recommendation John Cassidy ... describe[s] that mix of insight and madness that brought the world's system to its knees FT, Book of the Year recommendation Anyone who enjoys a good read can safely embark on this tour with Cassidy as their guide . . . Like his colleague Malcolm Gladwell [at the New Yorker], Cassidy is able to lead us with beguiling lucidity through unfamiliar territory New Statesman John Cassidy has covered economics and finance at The New Yorker magazine since 1995, writing on topics ranging from Alan Greenspan to the Iraqi oil industry and English journalism. He is also now a Contributing Editor at Portfolio where he writes the monthly Economics column. Two of his articles have been nominated for National Magazine Awards: an essay on Karl Marx, which appeared in October, 1997, and an account of the death of the British weapons scientist David Kelly, which was published in December, 2003. He has previously written for Sunday Times in as well as the New York Post, where he edited the Business section and then served as the deputy editor. In 2002, Cassidy published his first book, Dot.Con. He lives in New York.




Systemic Risk Tomography


Book Description

In April 2010 Europe was shocked by the Greek financial turmoil. At that time, the global financial crisis, which started in the summer of 2007 and reached systemic dimensions in September 2008 with the Lehman Brothers' crash, took a new course. An adverse feedback loop between sovereign and bank risks reflected into bubble-like spreads, as if financial markets had received a wake-up call concerning the disregarded structural vulnerability of economies at risk.These events inspired the SYRTO project to "think and rethink the economic and financial system and to conceive it as an "ensemble of Sovereigns and Banks with other Financial Intermediaries and Corporations. Systemic Risk Tomography: Signals, Measurement and Transmission Channels proposes a novel way to explore the financial system by sectioning each part of it and analyzing all relevant inter-relationships. The financial system is inspected as a biological entity to identify the main risk signals and to provide the correct measures of prevention and intervention. - Explores the economic and financial system of Sovereigns, Banks, other Financial Intermediaries, and Corporations - Presents the financial system as a biological entity to be explored in order to identify the main risk signals and provide the right measures of prevention and interventions - Offers a new, systemic-based approach to construct a hierarchical, internally coherent framework to be used in developing an effective early warning system