Monetary Policy Transmission in Emerging Markets and Developing Economies


Book Description

Central banks in emerging and developing economies (EMDEs) have been modernizing their monetary policy frameworks, often moving toward inflation targeting (IT). However, questions regarding the strength of monetary policy transmission from interest rates to inflation and output have often stalled progress. We conduct a novel empirical analysis using Jordà’s (2005) approach for 40 EMDEs to shed a light on monetary transmission in these countries. We find that interest rate hikes reduce output growth and inflation, once we explicitly account for the behavior of the exchange rate. Having a modern monetary policy framework—adopting IT and independent and transparent central banks—matters more for monetary transmission than financial development.




Monetary Policy Transmission in an Emerging Market Setting


Book Description

Some emerging economies have a relatively ineffective monetary policy transmission owing to weaknesses in the domestic financial system and the presence of a large and segmented informal sector. At the same time, small open economies can have a substantial monetary policy transmission through the exchange rate channel. In order to understand this setting, we explore a unified treatment of monetary policy transmission and exchangerate pass-through. The results for an emerging market, India, suggest that the most effective mechanism through which monetary policy impacts inflation runs through the exchange rate.







The Effectiveness of Monetary Policy Transmission Under Capital Inflows


Book Description

The effectiveness of the monetary policy transmission mechanism in open economies could be impaired if interest rates are driven primarily by global factors, especially during periods of large capital inflows. The main objective of this paper is to assess whether this is true for emerging Asia’s economies. Using a dynamic factor model and a structural vector auto-regression model, we show that long-term interest rates in Asia are indeed predominantly driven by global factors. However, monetary policy transmission mechanism remains effective in the region, as it operates predominantly through short-term interest rates. Nevertheless, the monetary transmission mechanism, though effective, is somewhat weaker in Asia during the periods of surges in capital inflows.




Financial Sector Dynamics, Monetary Policy Transmission and Central Banking


Book Description

This thesis presents five empirical essays, all of which revolve around issues related to financial sector dynamics, interest rate pass-through, monetary policy transmission and central banking. The first research essay examines the dynamics and determinants of interest rate pass-through within the global context. This study first identifies long run interest rate pass-through in countries and then examines their changes over time. Thereafter, it explores various macroeconomic, financial/banking and institutional/governance determinants of interest rate pass-through. Findings suggest incomplete interest rate pass-through for the majority of countries while pointing to their changes over time. It also finds that amongst various determining factors of interest rate pass-through, financial market development, banking sector market power and central bank transparency remain the key determinants. The second research essay examines whether the dynamic economic and financial environment in an emerging market economy leads to changes in interest rate pass-through while reducing any asymmetries and heterogeneities. This study finds that economic and financial sector changes lead to substantial structural shifts in interest rate pass-through in emerging market economies. The results also suggest that despite there being structural changes, significant asymmetries and heterogeneities in interest rate pass-through exist due to prevailing high market power in the banking markets and also due to the impact of bank-specific characteristics.The third research essay examines issues related to the monetary transmission mechanism in an emerging market economy focusing on the effectiveness of monetary policy, the relative importance of different channels (interest rate, credit, exchange rate and asset prices), the sectoral effects of monetary policy across different financial institutions and the structural changes in the transmission process. The results suggest that market-based indirect instruments of monetary policy appear more effective in a liberalised financial environment, since price-based channels gain much importance. This study also supports the view that large financial institutions (generally banks) can withstand or delay the impact of monetary policy than small or financially vulnerable institutions pointing to substantial sectoral effects of monetary policy. The study also provides evidence on the changes in monetary transmission over time. The fourth research essay focuses on the impact of off-balance sheet banking on the bank lending channel of monetary transmission. This study finds that off-balance sheet banking reduces the effectiveness of the bank lending channel thus creating a buffering effect on monetary policy. It also finds that the buffering effects are substantial for small, highly-liquid and well-capitalised banks. The fifth research essay examines a recently recognised issue in central banking, i.e., central bank financial strength and its implications on inflation outcomes. Empirical estimates indicate that central bank financial strength is negatively associated with inflation suggesting that maintaining the health of the central bank balance sheet remains a vital pre-condition for desired policy outcomes of a central bank.The findings of this thesis provide important policy implications for economic policy makers, particularly for central banks while contributing to the existing academic literature.




Two Targets, Two Instruments


Book Description

Staff Discussion Notes showcase the latest policy-related analysis and research being developed by individual IMF staff and are published to elicit comment and to further debate. These papers are generally brief and written in nontechnical language, and so are aimed at a broad audience interested in economic policy issues. This Web-only series replaced Staff Position Notes in January 2011.




Monetary Transmission in Low Income Countries


Book Description

This paper reviews monetary transmission mechanisms in low-income countries (LICs) to identify aspects of the channels that may operate differently in LICs relative to advanced and emerging economies. Given the weak institutional frameworks, reduced role of securities markets, imperfect competition in the banking sector and the resulting high cost of bank lending to private firms, the traditional channels (interest rate, bank lending, and asset price) are impaired in LICs. The exchange rate channel is also undermined by central bank intervention in the foreign exchange market. These conclusions are supported by review of the institutional frameworks, statistical analysis, and previous literature.




The Policy Interest-Rate Pass-Through in Central America


Book Description

Several Central American (CADR) central banks with independent monetary policies have adopted policy interest rates as their main instrument to signal their monetary policy stances, often in the context of adopting or transitioning to inflation targeting regimes. This paper finds that the interest-rate transmission mechanism, or the pass-through of the policy rate to market rates, is generally weaker and slower in CADR than in the LA6, the countries selected as benchmarks. A variety of potential factors behind this finding are examined, including the degrees of financial dollarization, exchange rate flexibility, bank concentration, financial sector development, and fiscal dominance. Through panel data analysis, the study suggests that the transmission mechanism can be strengthened by increasing exchange rate flexibility, and, over time, by adopting measures towards reducing financial dollarization, developing the financial sector, and reducing bank concentration.




Negative Interest Rate Policy (NIRP)


Book Description

More than two years ago the European Central Bank (ECB) adopted a negative interest rate policy (NIRP) to achieve its price stability objective. Negative interest rates have so far supported easier financial conditions and contributed to a modest expansion in credit, demonstrating that the zero lower bound is less binding than previously thought. However, interest rate cuts also weigh on bank profitability. Substantial rate cuts may at some point outweigh the benefits from higher asset values and stronger aggregate demand. Further monetary accommodation may need to rely more on credit easing and an expansion of the ECB’s balance sheet rather than substantial additional reductions in the policy rate.




Non-Linear Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Emerging Markets


Book Description

This paper estimates exchange rate pass-through to consumer prices in emerging markets focusing on non-linearities and asymmetries. We document non-linearities and asymmetries in the transmission of exchange rate fluctuations to prices using local projection techniques to obtain state dependent impulse responses in a panel of 28 emerging markets. We find significant evidence of non-linearities during episodes of depreciation greater than 10 and 20 percent. More specifically, we find that, after one month, the exchange rate pass-through coefficient is equal to 18 and 25 percent respectively, compared to a coefficient of 6 percent in the linear case. We also investigate the role of temporary vs. permanent shocks and the adoption of an inflation targeting regime in the transmission from exchange rate movements to prices. We perform a set of robustness checks, addressing the presence of outliers and potential endogeneity concerns.