Money, Credit, and Asset Prices


Book Description

Whereas the prices of individual company stocks respond rationally to unexpected news, movements in the market as a whole often do not behave in the same way. Indeed, they frequently appear perverse. Prices peak when economic news is bad; they respond only to good news when they are rising, or only to bad when they are weak: they overshoot, and then correct violently. Drawing on his hands-on experience, Professor Pepper puts forward the theory that the market is responding to the balance between savings seeking investment and borrowers' need for finance, and not to events. Money sets the mood: the market behaves like a fickle crowd, which can be followed with profit. In challenging conventional theory, this book increases our understanding of financial markets; it is essential reading for economists and practitioners alike.




Money, Credit and Asset Prices


Book Description

'For amateurs and professionals alike wishing to deepen their understanding of the often mysterious and counter-intuitive fluctuations in asset prices, this book provides essential reading.' - Barry Riley, Financial Times 'Really required reading.' - Anthony Harris, Times According to mainstream economic theory, the prices of individual stocks respond rationally to unexpected news. However, real market movements appear to respond to news in more complex and sometimes perverse ways, overshooting or not reacting at all. Drawing on his hands-on experience, Professor Pepper puts forward a new theory based on the analysis of the supply of and demand for investible funds. He shows clearly that price movements are governed not by news but by the financial requirements of investors, requirements which therefore become a powerful forecasting tool.




Money, Credit, and Capital


Book Description

This long-awaited book, coauthored by Nobel laureate and Yale University emeritus professor Tobin, is the essential guide to monetary theory for those who need the best available, most authoritative economic explanations. This fundamental introduction includes authoritative coverage of the mechanisms of the Federal Reserve and how its policies affect investment activity via interest rates and the credit offered to private borrowers.




Asset Prices, Booms and Recessions


Book Description

The financial market melt-down of the years 2007-2009 has posed great challenges for studies on financial economics. This financial economics text focuses on the dynamic interaction of financial markets and economic activity. The financial market to be studied here encompasses the money and bond market, credit market, stock market and foreign exchange market; economic activity includes the actions and interactions of firms, banks, households, governments and countries. The book shows how economic activity affects asset prices and the financial market, and how asset prices and financial market volatility and crises impact economic activity. The book offers extensive coverage of new and advanced topics in financial economics such as the term structure of interest rates, credit derivatives and credit risk, domestic and international portfolio theory, multi-agent and evolutionary approaches, capital asset pricing beyond consumption-based models, and dynamic portfolio decisions. Moreover a completely new section of the book is dedicated to the recent financial market meltdown of the years 2007-2009. Emphasis is placed on empirical evidence relating to episodes of financial instability and financial crises in the U.S. and in Latin American, Asian and Euro-area countries. Overall, the book explains what researchers and practitioners in the financial sector need to know about the financial-real interaction, and what practitioners and policy makers need to know about the financial market.







Asset Prices and Monetary Policy


Book Description

Economic growth, low inflation, and financial stability are among the most important goals of policy makers, and central banks such as the Federal Reserve are key institutions for achieving these goals. In Asset Prices and Monetary Policy, leading scholars and practitioners probe the interaction of central banks, asset markets, and the general economy to forge a new understanding of the challenges facing policy makers as they manage an increasingly complex economic system. The contributors examine how central bankers determine their policy prescriptions with reference to the fluctuating housing market, the balance of debt and credit, changing beliefs of investors, the level of commodity prices, and other factors. At a time when the public has never been more involved in stocks, retirement funds, and real estate investment, this insightful book will be useful to all those concerned with the current state of the economy.




Money and Asset Prices in Boom and Bust


Book Description

By considering recent and historical events such as the Great Depression, episodes of boom and bust in the UK, and the malaise in Japan in the 1990s and the early 21st century, monetary economist Tim Congdon is able to show how monetary policy affects both financial markets and the real economy. In all these episodes, fluctuations in money supply growth led to booms or busts in financial markets and were associated with turbulence in the price level and in output and employment. The crucial linkages between monetary policy and financial markets, argues the author, involve broad money, not narrow money. Non-bank financial institutions, such as pension funds and insurance companies, play a critical role in transmitting fluctuations in money growth to asset prices. This monograph is an important contribution to the crucial debate on the role of monetary aggregates in setting monetary policy. Congdon's argument, that ignoring monetary aggregates can lead to profound instability in the real economy, is compelling.




Default, Credit Growth, and Asset Prices


Book Description

This paper uses a Merton-type estimate of the probability of default (PoD) for the main banks in a sample of Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development and middle-income countries as a proxy for the fragility of their banking systems. Based on theory and stylized facts, the paper explores a range of financial and real variables that explain such PoDs across time. We find property price fluctuations and bank credit to be important explanatory factors. There is two-way interaction between these variables and a clearer relationship when the variables are entered as a deviation from trend. The lag structure between such developments and PoDs is long and varies widely across countries. The paper assesses the implications of these findings for economic policy.




Macroeconomic Patterns and Monetary Policy in the Run-up to Asset Price Busts


Book Description

We find that inflation, output and the stance of monetary policy do not typically display unusual behavior ahead of asset price busts. By contrast, credit, shares of investment in GDP, current account deficits, and asset prices typically rise, providing useful, if not perfect, leading indicators of asset price busts. These patterns could also be observed in the build-up to the current crisis. Monetary policy was not the main, systematic cause of the current crisis. But, with inflation typically under control, central banks effectively accommodated these growing imbalances, raising the risk of damaging busts.




Where Does Money Come From?


Book Description

Based on detailed research and consultation with experts, including the Bank of England, this book reviews theoretical and historical debates on the nature of money and banking and explains the role of the central bank, the Government and the European Union. Following a sell out first edition and reprint, this second edition includes new sections on Libor and quantitative easing in the UK and the sovereign debt crisis in Europe.