Discovering Causal Structure


Book Description

Discovering Causal Structure: Artificial Intelligence, Philosophy of Science, and Statistical Modeling provides information pertinent to the fundamental aspects of a computer program called TETRAD. This book discusses the version of the TETRAD program, which is designed to assist in the search for causal explanations of statistical data. or alternative models. This text then examines the notion of applying artificial intelligence methods to problems of statistical model specification. Other chapters consider how the TETRAD program can help to find god alternative models where they exist, and how it can help detect the existence of important neglected variables. This book discusses as well the procedures for specifying a model or models to account for non-experimental or quasi-experimental data. The final chapter presents a description of the format of input files and a description of each command. This book is a valuable resource for social scientists and researchers.




Causality and Causal Modelling in the Social Sciences


Book Description

This investigation into causal modelling presents the rationale of causality, i.e. the notion that guides causal reasoning in causal modelling. It is argued that causal models are regimented by a rationale of variation, nor of regularity neither invariance, thus breaking down the dominant Human paradigm. The notion of variation is shown to be embedded in the scheme of reasoning behind various causal models. It is also shown to be latent – yet fundamental – in many philosophical accounts. Moreover, it has significant consequences for methodological issues: the warranty of the causal interpretation of causal models, the levels of causation, the characterisation of mechanisms, and the interpretation of probability. This book offers a novel philosophical and methodological approach to causal reasoning in causal modelling and provides the reader with the tools to be up to date about various issues causality rises in social science.




Post Walrasian Macroeconomics


Book Description

Macroeconomics is evolving in an almost dialectic fashion. The latest evolution is the development of a new synthesis that combines insights of new classical, new Keynesian and real business cycle traditions into a dynamic, stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model that serves as a foundation for thinking about macro policy. That new synthesis has opened up the door to a new antithesis, which is being driven by advances in computing power and analytic techniques. This new synthesis is coalescing around developments in complexity theory, automated general to specific econometric modeling, agent-based models, and non-linear and statistical dynamical models. This book thus provides the reader with an introduction to what might be called a Post Walrasian research program that is developing as the antithesis of the Walrasian DSGE synthesis.




Mapping COVID-19 in Space and Time


Book Description

This book describes the spatial and temporal perspectives on COVID-19 and its impacts and deepens our understanding of human dynamics during and after the global pandemic. It critically examines the role smart city technologies play in shaping our lives in the years to come. The book covers a wide-range of issues related to conceptual, theoretical and data issues, analysis and modeling, and applications and policy implications such as socio-ecological perspectives, geospatial data ethics, mobility and migration during COVID-19, population health resilience and much more. With accelerated pace of technological advances and growing divide on political and policy options, a better understanding of disruptive global events such as COVID-19 with spatial and temporal perspectives is an imperative and will make the ultimate difference in public health and economic decision making. Through in-depth analyses of concepts, data, methods, and policies, this book stimulates future studies on global pandemics and their impacts on society at different levels.







Irrigation Potential in Africa


Book Description




Simulating Social Complexity


Book Description

Social systems are among the most complex known. This poses particular problems for those who wish to understand them. The complexity often makes analytic approaches infeasible and natural language approaches inadequate for relating intricate cause and effect. However, individual- and agent-based computational approaches hold out the possibility of new and deeper understanding of such systems. Simulating Social Complexity examines all aspects of using agent- or individual-based simulation. This approach represents systems as individual elements having each their own set of differing states and internal processes. The interactions between elements in the simulation represent interactions in the target systems. What makes these elements "social" is that they are usefully interpretable as interacting elements of an observed society. In this, the focus is on human society, but can be extended to include social animals or artificial agents where such work enhances our understanding of human society. The phenomena of interest then result (emerge) from the dynamics of the interaction of social actors in an essential way and are usually not easily simplifiable by, for example, considering only representative actors. The introduction of accessible agent-based modelling allows the representation of social complexity in a more natural and direct manner than previous techniques. In particular, it is no longer necessary to distort a model with the introduction of overly strong assumptions simply in order to obtain analytic tractability. This makes agent-based modelling relatively accessible to a range of scientists. The outcomes of such models can be displayed and animated in ways that also make them more interpretable by experts and stakeholders. This handbook is intended to help in the process of maturation of this new field. It brings together, through the collaborative effort of many leading researchers, summaries of the best thinking and practice in this area and constitutes a reference point for standards against which future methodological advances are judged. This book will help those entering into the field to avoid "reinventing the wheel" each time, but it will also help those already in the field by providing accessible overviews of current thought. The material is divided into four sections: Introductory, Methodology, Mechanisms, and Applications. Each chapter starts with a very brief section called ‘Why read this chapter?’ followed by an abstract, which summarizes the content of the chapter. Each chapter also ends with a section of ‘Further Reading’ briefly describing three to eight items that a newcomer might read next.




Ensemble Machine Learning


Book Description

It is common wisdom that gathering a variety of views and inputs improves the process of decision making, and, indeed, underpins a democratic society. Dubbed “ensemble learning” by researchers in computational intelligence and machine learning, it is known to improve a decision system’s robustness and accuracy. Now, fresh developments are allowing researchers to unleash the power of ensemble learning in an increasing range of real-world applications. Ensemble learning algorithms such as “boosting” and “random forest” facilitate solutions to key computational issues such as face recognition and are now being applied in areas as diverse as object tracking and bioinformatics. Responding to a shortage of literature dedicated to the topic, this volume offers comprehensive coverage of state-of-the-art ensemble learning techniques, including the random forest skeleton tracking algorithm in the Xbox Kinect sensor, which bypasses the need for game controllers. At once a solid theoretical study and a practical guide, the volume is a windfall for researchers and practitioners alike.




Handbook of Ethics in Quantitative Methodology


Book Description

This comprehensive Handbook is the first to provide a practical, interdisciplinary review of ethical issues as they relate to quantitative methodology including how to present evidence for reliability and validity, what comprises an adequate tested population, and what constitutes scientific knowledge for eliminating biases. The book uses an ethical framework that emphasizes the human cost of quantitative decision making to help researchers understand the specific implications of their choices. The order of the Handbook chapters parallels the chronology of the research process: determining the research design and data collection; data analysis; and communicating findings. Each chapter: Explores the ethics of a particular topic Identifies prevailing methodological issues Reviews strategies and approaches for handling such issues and their ethical implications Provides one or more case examples Outlines plausible approaches to the issue including best-practice solutions. Part 1 presents ethical frameworks that cross-cut design, analysis, and modeling in the behavioral sciences. Part 2 focuses on ideas for disseminating ethical training in statistics courses. Part 3 considers the ethical aspects of selecting measurement instruments and sample size planning and explores issues related to high stakes testing, the defensibility of experimental vs. quasi-experimental research designs, and ethics in program evaluation. Decision points that shape a researchers’ approach to data analysis are examined in Part 4 – when and why analysts need to account for how the sample was selected, how to evaluate tradeoffs of hypothesis-testing vs. estimation, and how to handle missing data. Ethical issues that arise when using techniques such as factor analysis or multilevel modeling and when making causal inferences are also explored. The book concludes with ethical aspects of reporting meta-analyses, of cross-disciplinary statistical reform, and of the publication process. This Handbook appeals to researchers and practitioners in psychology, human development, family studies, health, education, sociology, social work, political science, and business/marketing. This book is also a valuable supplement for quantitative methods courses required of all graduate students in these fields.