Nation's Long-Term Fiscal Outlook


Book Description

The gov¿t. publishes long-term fiscal simulations of what might happen to fed. deficits and debt levels under varying policy assumptions. There are two simulations: (1) "Baseline Extended" follows the Sept. baseline estimates for the first 10 years and then holds revenue and spending other than large entitlement programs constant as a share of GDP; and (2) The "Alternative" simulation is based on historical trends and recent policy preferences. Discretionary spending grows with GDP rather than inflation during the first 10 years, Medicare physician pay. rates are not reduced, and all expiring tax provisions are extended until 2019 and then revenue is brought back to about its historical level. This update incorp. March 2009 baseline projections. Illus.




Nation's Long-Term Fiscal Outlook


Book Description

Since 1992, GAO has published long-term fiscal simulations of what might happen to fed. deficits & debt levels under varying policy assumptions. Current long-term simulations show ever-larger deficits resulting in a fed. debt burden that ultimately spirals out of control. There are two alternative fiscal paths. The first is ¿Baseline extended,¿ which extends the CBO¿s baseline estimates beyond the 10-year projection period, & the second is an alternative based on recent trends & policy preferences. For this update, GAO modified the alternative simulation to reflect a return to historical levels of revenue & a more realistic Medicare scenario for physician payments. Both simulations show that we are on an unsustainable fiscal path. Charts & tables.




Aging and the Macroeconomy


Book Description

The United States is in the midst of a major demographic shift. In the coming decades, people aged 65 and over will make up an increasingly large percentage of the population: The ratio of people aged 65+ to people aged 20-64 will rise by 80%. This shift is happening for two reasons: people are living longer, and many couples are choosing to have fewer children and to have those children somewhat later in life. The resulting demographic shift will present the nation with economic challenges, both to absorb the costs and to leverage the benefits of an aging population. Aging and the Macroeconomy: Long-Term Implications of an Older Population presents the fundamental factors driving the aging of the U.S. population, as well as its societal implications and likely long-term macroeconomic effects in a global context. The report finds that, while population aging does not pose an insurmountable challenge to the nation, it is imperative that sensible policies are implemented soon to allow companies and households to respond. It offers four practical approaches for preparing resources to support the future consumption of households and for adapting to the new economic landscape.




OECD Economic Outlook


Book Description







Nation's Long-Term Fiscal Outlook: April 2008 Update


Book Description

Long-term fiscal simulations of what might happen to fed. deficits and debt levels under varying policy assumptions continue to illustrate that the long-term fiscal outlook is unsustainable. Despite some improvement in the long-term outlook for fed. health and retirement spending, the fed. gov¿t. still faces large and growing structural deficits driven primarily by rising health care costs and known demographic trends. Nearly 80 million Americans will become eligible for Social Security retirement benefits over the next two decades. Yet the real drive of the long-term fiscal outlook is health care spending. Medicare and Medicaid are both large and projected to continue growing rapidly in the future. Charts and tables.




Global Trends 2040


Book Description

"The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.




Long-Term Fiscal Challenge Looms, as the Baby Boom Generation Begins to Retire


Book Description

There have been long-term fiscal simulations of what might happen to fed. deficits and debt levels under varying policy assumptions. These simulations were updated with Jan. 2008 budget and economic projections and continue to indicate that the long-term fed. fiscal outlook remains unstable. The fiscal challenges facing all levels of gov¿t. are linked and should be considered in a strategic and integrated manner. The fed. gov¿t. faces large and growing structural deficits driven primarily by rising health care costs and known demographic trends. Nearly 80 million Americans will become eligible for Social Security retirement benefits in the next 20 yrs. Medicare and Medicaid are both large and projected to continue growing rapidly in the future.




Long-Term Fiscal Outlook


Book Description

This statement addresses 4 key points: (1) the fed. gov¿t. long-term fiscal outlook is a matter of utmost concern; (2) this challenge is driven primarily by health care cost growth; (3) reform of health care is essential but other areas also need attention which requires a multi-pronged solution; and (4) the fed. gov¿t. faces increasing pressures yet a shrinking window of opportunity for phasing in needed adjustments. The simulations of the fed. gov¿t. long-term fiscal outlook continue to indicate that the long-term outlook is unsustainable. This update combined with an analysis of the fiscal outlook of state and local gov¿ts. demonstrates that the fiscal challenges facing all levels of gov¿t. are linked and should be considered in an integrated manner. Ill.




Global Productivity


Book Description

The COVID-19 pandemic struck the global economy after a decade that featured a broad-based slowdown in productivity growth. Global Productivity: Trends, Drivers, and Policies presents the first comprehensive analysis of the evolution and drivers of productivity growth, examines the effects of COVID-19 on productivity, and discusses a wide range of policies needed to rekindle productivity growth. The book also provides a far-reaching data set of multiple measures of productivity for up to 164 advanced economies and emerging market and developing economies, and it introduces a new sectoral database of productivity. The World Bank has created an extraordinary book on productivity, covering a large group of countries and using a wide variety of data sources. There is an emphasis on emerging and developing economies, whereas the prior literature has concentrated on developed economies. The book seeks to understand growth patterns and quantify the role of (among other things) the reallocation of factors, technological change, and the impact of natural disasters, including the COVID-19 pandemic. This book is must-reading for specialists in emerging economies but also provides deep insights for anyone interested in economic growth and productivity. Martin Neil Baily Senior Fellow, The Brookings Institution Former Chair, U.S. President’s Council of Economic Advisers This is an important book at a critical time. As the book notes, global productivity growth had already been slowing prior to the COVID-19 pandemic and collapses with the pandemic. If we want an effective recovery, we have to understand what was driving these long-run trends. The book presents a novel global approach to examining the levels, growth rates, and drivers of productivity growth. For anyone wanting to understand or influence productivity growth, this is an essential read. Nicholas Bloom William D. Eberle Professor of Economics, Stanford University The COVID-19 pandemic hit a global economy that was already struggling with an adverse pre-existing condition—slow productivity growth. This extraordinarily valuable and timely book brings considerable new evidence that shows the broad-based, long-standing nature of the slowdown. It is comprehensive, with an exceptional focus on emerging market and developing economies. Importantly, it shows how severe disasters (of which COVID-19 is just the latest) typically harm productivity. There are no silver bullets, but the book suggests sensible strategies to improve growth prospects. John Fernald Schroders Chaired Professor of European Competitiveness and Reform and Professor of Economics, INSEAD