Inadvertent Escalation


Book Description

In this sobering book, Barry R. Posen demonstrates how the interplay between conventional military operations and nuclear forces could, in conflicts among states armed with both conventional and nuclear weaponry, inadvertently produce pressures for nuclear escalation. Knowledge of these hidden pressures, he believes, may help some future decision maker avoid catastrophe.Building a formidable argument that moves with cumulative force, he details the way in which escalation could occur not by mindless accident, or by deliberate preference for nuclear escalation, but rather as a natural accompaniment of land, naval, or air warfare at the conventional level. Posen bases his analysis on an empirical study of the east-west military competition in Europe during the 1980s, using a conceptual framework drawn from international relations theory, organization theory, and strategic theory.The lessons of his book, however, go well beyond the east-west competition. Since his observations are relevant to all military competitions between states armed with both conventional and nuclear weaponry, his book speaks to some of the problems that attend the proliferation of nuclear weapons in longstanding regional conflicts. Optimism that small and medium nuclear powers can easily achieve "stable" nuclear balances is, he believes, unwarranted.




Conventional Arms Control and East-West Security


Book Description

This important and timely work, prepared by the leading researchers, planners, and policymakers from both Eastern and Western alliances, analyzes the major issues in the Vienna talks on conventional forces in Europe involving NATO and Warsaw Pact nations. It is likely to have a significant influence on the course of these negotiations and on emerging debate on conventional arms control. The contributors met in Moscow prior to the Vienna conference to review and compare their analyses and revised them thereafter for publication in this work.




New Conventional Weapons and Western Defence


Book Description

Giving an overview of research and development in weaponry in the maritime and aviation sphere as well as land-based technology, this study looks forward to the effects of emerging innovations on defence policy-making.




Tactical Nuclear Weapons


Book Description

In the 1970s tactical nuclear warfare was a topical issue. The introduction of the new generation of tactical nuclear weapons into Europe could have had disastrous consequences. These new weapons had already been developed by nuclear-weapon laboratories and pressures were growing for their deployment. On first sight, smaller and more accurate nuclear weapons may seem more humane and militarily preferable to the relatively high-yield tactical nuclear weapons currently deployed. But some of these new types of weapons would blur the distinction between nuclear and conventional weapons and their use would make escalation to strategic nuclear war extremely likely. Indeed, the argument for these new weapons is that their use in wartime is more credible (and therefore ‘acceptable’) than current types of tactical nuclear weapons. This perception could easily lead to the exceedingly dangerous idea that some types of tactical nuclear war were ‘winnable’. The fact has to be faced that any use of nuclear weapons is almost certain to escalate until all available weapons are used. To believe otherwise is to believe that one side will surrender before it has used all the weapons in its arsenal. History shows that this is most unlikely to happen. Because of its importance, SIPRI organized a meeting to discuss the whole question. Originally published in 1978, this book is the outcome of that meeting.




NATO’s Conventional Defences


Book Description

A review of the full range of recent official and non-official schemes for improving NATO's conventional posture, from exploitation of emerging technologies to non-provocative defences, in the light of prevailing military, political, economic and demographic trends.




The Dangers of New Weapon Systems


Book Description




Prospects for Security in the Mediterranean


Book Description

A compilation of papers analyzing the issues affecting security in the Mediterranean area and their policy implications. The Mediterranean is seen as a potential theatre for East-West confrontation both on land and at sea, as a key trade route and as an area of inter-relationship conflicts.




Routledge Library Editions: Historical Security


Book Description

This 12-volume set contains titles originally published between 1957 and 1992. International in scope, the set looks at security and military history covering several battles, particularly the first and second world wars. Highlighting the difference between theory and practice, it also explores the people involved in the policy making and strategy of war, and the leaders tasked with carrying those decisions out.




Quantitative Assessment in Arms Control


Book Description

This book originates in a series of contributions to the 1983 Systems Science Seminar at the Computer Science Department of the German Armed Forces University Munich. Under the topic "Quantita tive Approaches to Arms Control" that seminar attempted to review the present state-of-the-art of systems analysis and numerate meth ods in arms control. To this end, the editors invited a number of experts from Europe, the United St~tes and Canada to share and dis cuss their views and assessments with the faculty and upper class computer science students of the university as well as numerous guests from the defence community and the interested public. In three parts, this book presents a selection of partly re vised and somewhat extended versions of the seminar presentations followed, in most cases, by brief summaries of the transcripts of the respective discussions. In addition to an introduction by the editors, part I contains six papers on the present state and prob lems of arms control with emphasis on START (Strategic Arms Re duction Talks), INF (Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces negotia tions), and MBFR (Mutually Balanced Force Reduction talks). The seven contributions to part II are devoted to mathematical models of arms competition and quantitative approaches to force balance assessment of both, the static and dynamic variety. Part III pre sents five papers which address technical and operational aspects and legal implications of arms control negotiations and verifica tion.