Forecasting: principles and practice


Book Description

Forecasting is required in many situations. Stocking an inventory may require forecasts of demand months in advance. Telecommunication routing requires traffic forecasts a few minutes ahead. Whatever the circumstances or time horizons involved, forecasting is an important aid in effective and efficient planning. This textbook provides a comprehensive introduction to forecasting methods and presents enough information about each method for readers to use them sensibly.




Time Series Analysis Univariate and Multivariate Methods


Book Description

With its broad coverage of methodology, this comprehensive book is a useful learning and reference tool for those in applied sciences where analysis and research of time series is useful. Its plentiful examples show the operational details and purpose of a variety of univariate and multivariate time series methods. Numerous figures, tables and real-life time series data sets illustrate the models and methods useful for analyzing, modeling, and forecasting data collected sequentially in time. The text also offers a balanced treatment between theory and applications. Time Series Analysis is a thorough introduction to both time-domain and frequency-domain analyses of univariate and multivariate time series methods, with coverage of the most recently developed techniques in the field.




Outlier Analysis


Book Description

This book provides comprehensive coverage of the field of outlier analysis from a computer science point of view. It integrates methods from data mining, machine learning, and statistics within the computational framework and therefore appeals to multiple communities. The chapters of this book can be organized into three categories: Basic algorithms: Chapters 1 through 7 discuss the fundamental algorithms for outlier analysis, including probabilistic and statistical methods, linear methods, proximity-based methods, high-dimensional (subspace) methods, ensemble methods, and supervised methods. Domain-specific methods: Chapters 8 through 12 discuss outlier detection algorithms for various domains of data, such as text, categorical data, time-series data, discrete sequence data, spatial data, and network data. Applications: Chapter 13 is devoted to various applications of outlier analysis. Some guidance is also provided for the practitioner. The second edition of this book is more detailed and is written to appeal to both researchers and practitioners. Significant new material has been added on topics such as kernel methods, one-class support-vector machines, matrix factorization, neural networks, outlier ensembles, time-series methods, and subspace methods. It is written as a textbook and can be used for classroom teaching.




Identification of Outliers


Book Description

The problem of outliers is one of the oldest in statistics, and during the last century and a half interest in it has waxed and waned several times. Currently it is once again an active research area after some years of relative neglect, and recent work has solved a number of old problems in outlier theory, and identified new ones. The major results are, however, scattered amongst many journal articles, and for some time there has been a clear need to bring them together in one place. That was the original intention of this monograph: but during execution it became clear that the existing theory of outliers was deficient in several areas, and so the monograph also contains a number of new results and conjectures. In view of the enormous volume ofliterature on the outlier problem and its cousins, no attempt has been made to make the coverage exhaustive. The material is concerned almost entirely with the use of outlier tests that are known (or may reasonably be expected) to be optimal in some way. Such topics as robust estimation are largely ignored, being covered more adequately in other sources. The numerous ad hoc statistics proposed in the early work on the grounds of intuitive appeal or computational simplicity also are not discussed in any detail.




Robust Regression and Outlier Detection


Book Description

WILEY-INTERSCIENCE PAPERBACK SERIES The Wiley-Interscience Paperback Series consists of selectedbooks that have been made more accessible to consumers in an effortto increase global appeal and general circulation. With these newunabridged softcover volumes, Wiley hopes to extend the lives ofthese works by making them available to future generations ofstatisticians, mathematicians, and scientists. "The writing style is clear and informal, and much of thediscussion is oriented to application. In short, the book is akeeper." –Mathematical Geology "I would highly recommend the addition of this book to thelibraries of both students and professionals. It is a usefultextbook for the graduate student, because it emphasizes both thephilosophy and practice of robustness in regression settings, andit provides excellent examples of precise, logical proofs oftheorems. . . .Even for those who are familiar with robustness, thebook will be a good reference because it consolidates the researchin high-breakdown affine equivariant estimators and includes anextensive bibliography in robust regression, outlier diagnostics,and related methods. The aim of this book, the authors tell us, is‘to make robust regression available for everyday statisticalpractice.’ Rousseeuw and Leroy have included all of thenecessary ingredients to make this happen." –Journal of the American Statistical Association







SAS for Forecasting Time Series, Third Edition


Book Description

To use statistical methods and SAS applications to forecast the future values of data taken over time, you need only follow this thoroughly updated classic on the subject. With this third edition of SAS for Forecasting Time Series, intermediate-to-advanced SAS users—such as statisticians, economists, and data scientists—can now match the most sophisticated forecasting methods to the most current SAS applications. Starting with fundamentals, this new edition presents methods for modeling both univariate and multivariate data taken over time. From the well-known ARIMA models to unobserved components, methods that span the range from simple to complex are discussed and illustrated. Many of the newer methods are variations on the basic ARIMA structures. Completely updated, this new edition includes fresh, interesting business situations and data sets, and new sections on these up-to-date statistical methods: ARIMA models Vector autoregressive models Exponential smoothing models Unobserved component and state-space models Seasonal adjustment Spectral analysis Focusing on application, this guide teaches a wide range of forecasting techniques by example. The examples provide the statistical underpinnings necessary to put the methods into practice. The following up-to-date SAS applications are covered in this edition: The ARIMA procedure The AUTOREG procedure The VARMAX procedure The ESM procedure The UCM and SSM procedures The X13 procedure The SPECTRA procedure SAS Forecast Studio Each SAS application is presented with explanation of its strengths, weaknesses, and best uses. Even users of automated forecasting systems will benefit from this knowledge of what is done and why. Moreover, the accompanying examples can serve as templates that you easily adjust to fit your specific forecasting needs. This book is part of the SAS Press program.




Outlier Detection for Temporal Data


Book Description

Outlier (or anomaly) detection is a very broad field which has been studied in the context of a large number of research areas like statistics, data mining, sensor networks, environmental science, distributed systems, spatio-temporal mining, etc. Initial research in outlier detection focused on time series-based outliers (in statistics). Since then, outlier detection has been studied on a large variety of data types including high-dimensional data, uncertain data, stream data, network data, time series data, spatial data, and spatio-temporal data. While there have been many tutorials and surveys for general outlier detection, we focus on outlier detection for temporal data in this book. A large number of applications generate temporal datasets. For example, in our everyday life, various kinds of records like credit, personnel, financial, judicial, medical, etc., are all temporal. This stresses the need for an organized and detailed study of outliers with respect to such temporal data. In the past decade, there has been a lot of research on various forms of temporal data including consecutive data snapshots, series of data snapshots and data streams. Besides the initial work on time series, researchers have focused on rich forms of data including multiple data streams, spatio-temporal data, network data, community distribution data, etc. Compared to general outlier detection, techniques for temporal outlier detection are very different. In this book, we will present an organized picture of both recent and past research in temporal outlier detection. We start with the basics and then ramp up the reader to the main ideas in state-of-the-art outlier detection techniques. We motivate the importance of temporal outlier detection and brief the challenges beyond usual outlier detection. Then, we list down a taxonomy of proposed techniques for temporal outlier detection. Such techniques broadly include statistical techniques (like AR models, Markov models, histograms, neural networks), distance- and density-based approaches, grouping-based approaches (clustering, community detection), network-based approaches, and spatio-temporal outlier detection approaches. We summarize by presenting a wide collection of applications where temporal outlier detection techniques have been applied to discover interesting outliers. Table of Contents: Preface / Acknowledgments / Figure Credits / Introduction and Challenges / Outlier Detection for Time Series and Data Sequences / Outlier Detection for Data Streams / Outlier Detection for Distributed Data Streams / Outlier Detection for Spatio-Temporal Data / Outlier Detection for Temporal Network Data / Applications of Outlier Detection for Temporal Data / Conclusions and Research Directions / Bibliography / Authors' Biographies




Outliers in Time Series


Book Description




Bayesian Time Series Models


Book Description

The first unified treatment of time series modelling techniques spanning machine learning, statistics, engineering and computer science.