Population, Technology, and Growth


Book Description

This paper develops a unified growth model that captures the historical evolution of population, technology, and output. It encompasses the endogenous transition between three regimes that have characterized economic development. The economy evolves from a Malthusian regime, where technological progress is slow and population growth prevents any sustained rise in income per capita, into a Post-Malthusian regime, where technological progress rises and population growth absorbs only part of output growth. Ultimately, a demographic transition reverses the positive relationship between income and population growth, and the economy enters a Modern Growth regime with reduced population growth and sustained growth of income.




Population, Technology, and Growth


Book Description

This paper develops a unified model of growth, population, and technological progress that is consistent with long-term historical evidence. The economy endogenously evolves through three phases. In the Malthusian regime, population growth is positively related to the level of income per capita. Technological progress is slow and is matched by proportional increases in population, so that output per capita is stable around a constant level. In the post-Malthusian regime, the growth rates of technology and total output increase. Population growth absorbs much of the growth of output, but income per capita does rise slowly. The economy endogenously undergoes a demographic transition in which the traditionally positive relationship between income per capita and population growth is reversed. In the Modern Growth regime, population growth is moderate or even negative, and income per capita rises rapidly. Two forces drive the transitions between regimes: First, technological progress is driven both by increases in the size of the population and by increases in the size of the population and by increases in the average level of education. Second, technological progress creates a state of disequilibrium, which raises the return to human capital and induces patients to substitute child quality for quantity.




Population and Technological Change


Book Description




The Limits to Growth


Book Description

Examines the factors which limit human economic and population growth and outlines the steps necessary for achieving a balance between population and production. Bibliogs




The Demographic Dividend


Book Description

There is long-standing debate on how population growth affects national economies. A new report from Population Matters examines the history of this debate and synthesizes current research on the topic. The authors, led by Harvard economist David Bloom, conclude that population age structure, more than size or growth per se, affects economic development, and that reducing high fertility can create opportunities for economic growth if the right kinds of educational, health, and labor-market policies are in place. The report also examines specific regions of the world and how their differing policy environments have affected the relationship between population change and economic development.




Population, Technology, and Development


Book Description

Critically examines the theories of Malthus, Marx and Boserup in the context of the relationship between population growth and technological change in order to throw light on the problems of the development of the Third World countries facing population problems as a result of the transfer of technology from the developed countries.




The Economics of Population Growth


Book Description

Comparison with stationary and very fast rates of population growth shows modern population grwoth to have long-run positive effects on the standards of living. This is Julian Simon's contention, and he provides support for its validity in both more and less-developed countries. He notes that since each person constitutes a burden in the short run, whether population growth is judged good or bad depends on the importance the short run is accorded relative to the long run. The author first analyzes empirical data, formulating his conclusions using simulation models. He then reviews our knowledge of the effect of economic level upon population growth. A final section of his book considers the framework of welfare economics and values within which population policy decisions are now made. He finds that the implications of policy decisions can prove inconsistent with the values that prompt their recommendation. Originally published in 1977. The Princeton Legacy Library uses the latest print-on-demand technology to again make available previously out-of-print books from the distinguished backlist of Princeton University Press. These editions preserve the original texts of these important books while presenting them in durable paperback and hardcover editions. The goal of the Princeton Legacy Library is to vastly increase access to the rich scholarly heritage found in the thousands of books published by Princeton University Press since its founding in 1905.




World Population and Human Capital in the Twenty-first Century


Book Description

Condensed into a detailed analysis and a selection of continent-wide datasets, this revised edition of World Population & Human Capital in the Twenty-First Century addresses the role of educational attainment in global population trends and models. Presenting the full chapter text of the original edition alongside a concise selection of data, it summarizes past trends in fertility, mortality, migration, and education, and examines relevant theories to identify key determining factors. Deriving from a global survey of hundreds of experts and five expert meetings on as many continents, World Population & Human Capital in the Twenty-First Century: An Overview emphasizes alternative trends in human capital, new ways of studying ageing and the quantification of alternative population, and education pathways in the context of global sustainable development. It is an ideal companion to the county specific online Wittgenstein Centre Data Explorer.




An Empirical Analysis of Population and Technological Progress


Book Description

​Analyzing the relation between population factors and technological progress is the main purpose of this book. With its declining population, Japan faces the simple but difficult problem of whether sustained economic growth can be maintained. Although there are many studies to investigate future economic growth from the point of view of labor force transition and the decreasing saving rate, technological progress is the most important factor to be considered in the future path of the Japanese economy. Technological progress is the result of innovations or improvements in the quality of human and physical capital. The increase in technological progress, which is measured as total factor productivity (TFP), is realized both by improvements in productivity in the short term and by economic developments in the long term. The author investigates the relationship of population factors and productivity, focusing on productivity improvement in the short term. Many discussions have long been held about the relation between population and technological progress. From the old Malthusian model to the modern endogenous economic growth models, various theories are developed in the context of growth theory. In this book, these discussions are summarized briefly, with an analysis of the quantitative relation between population and technological progress using country-based panel data in recent periods.




Population Growth and Economic Development


Book Description

This book addresses nine relevant questions: Will population growth reduce the growth rate of per capita income because it reduces the per capita availability of exhaustible resources? How about for renewable resources? Will population growth aggravate degradation of the natural environment? Does more rapid growth reduce worker output and consumption? Do rapid growth and greater density lead to productivity gains through scale economies and thereby raise per capita income? Will rapid population growth reduce per capita levels of education and health? Will it increase inequality of income distribution? Is it an important source of labor problems and city population absorption? And, finally, do the economic effects of population growth justify government programs to reduce fertility that go beyond the provision of family planning services?