Primary Commodities


Book Description

This paper provides an analysis of recent developments relating to the major nonfuel primary commodities (hereafter referred to as commodities) entering international trade. The unit value of manufactured exports in dollar terms also increased every year from 1972 to 1980; the rate of increase was 1 2 percent per annum. The persistent upward trend in dollar prices of commodities that characterized much of the 1970s ended in 1980. In addition to the movements in exchange rates outlined above, which determine the differences in price movements when measured in different currencies, the factors shown in various studies to have the greatest impact on current commodity prices are the rates of world inflation, the level of economic activity in the major markets for primary commodities, and the supply of the commodities concerned. Econometric studies have shown a positive relationship between commodity prices and inflation. In one study, changes in domestic wholesale prices of the industrial countries were found to have a significantly positive relationship to commodity prices with an elasticity of about one.




Primary Commodities


Book Description

This study prepared by the Commodities Division of the Research Department reviews and analyzes the developments in commodity markets.
















Primary Commodity Prices


Book Description

Commodity markets are of considerable interest and importance to economists, econometricians and dealers. This book reports the proceedings of an international conference on 'Primary Commodity Prices: Economic Models and Policy', held in London under the auspices of the Centre for Economic Policy Research in March 1989. A range of papers by leading international authorities covers topics such as expectations formation in econometric commodity market models; price determination in the market for aluminium; the estimation of dynamic disequilibrium models with rational expectations; and a comparison of forward markets and buffer stocks as commodity earnings stabilizers. A key feature of this stock is its development of the policy implications of theoretical and empirical work in the field of commodity economics. Most papers are accompanied by discussant's comments to draw out their technical and policy implications. The book's readership will include commodity economists, commodity market practitioners and policy analysis, as well as professionals and advanced students interested in the fields of applied econometrics, economic development and international trade.




Modeling and Forecasting Primary Commodity Prices


Book Description

This book provides new insights into the modeling and forecasting of primary commodity prices by featuring comprehensive applications of the most recent methods of statistical time series analysis.