Prior Return Effect in Indian Stock Market


Book Description

In a first of this kind, this paper examines the issue of prior return effect in Indian stock market in intra-day analysis using high frequency data. We document that in Indian stock market, security returns exhibit a reversal in their direction within few minutes of extreme price rises as well as price falls. However the speed with which the correction takes place is slightly different for good news events and bad news events. Indian investors tend to be optimistic as they immediately bring stock prices up following unjustified price falls but take time to bring stock prices down following unjustified price rises. These findings lend a further support to short-term overreaction literature. More importantly, these findings serve as a proof of predictability of the direction of future stock prices and consequent returns on an intra-day basis. It forwards important investment implications for traders, fund managers, and investors at large.




Prior Return Effect in Indian Stock Market


Book Description

Prior return effect - momentum and contrarian, is a well documented phenomenon in developed stock markets. This paper examines if there is any prior return effect in Indian stock market, an advanced emerging market in the world. We use daily price data available for stocks forming part of S&P CNX 500 equity index over a total period of five years beginning from July, 2006 to June, 2011.We find that in Indian stock market, security returns do exhibit predictable patterns following extreme daily price shocks. They exhibit a reversal in their direction during few days subsequent to an event of extreme rise insecurity's daily closing prices. Conversely, after experiencing an extreme decline in their daily closing prices, they continue to follow the downward journey recording lower prices on few days subsequent to the day of extreme price decline. Evidence from non-overlapping test period days also indicates overreaction for the winner portfolio and under reaction for the loser portfolio. These findings indicate that investors in the Indian Stock Market are overoptimistic. When re-pricing stocks in response to new information, their immediate reaction causes the stock prices to be above their adjusted expected values.




Long-Run Return Reversal Effect


Book Description

The study evaluates the long-run reversal effect in stock returns for the Indian stock market over the sample period from January 1997 to March 2013. The empirical findings from the study provide support in favor of long-run return reversal effect wherein past long-run loser stocks outperform past long-run winner stocks over longer investment period, suggesting profitability of long-run contrarian strategy. However, unlike US stock market, no strong January anomaly was observed in long-run Indian contrarian profits. Further, using the multivariate risk approach, no statistical significant long-run contrarian profits were observed. The long-run reversal profits were driven by risk differential among past long-run winner and loser portfolios and can be explained by simultaneously controlling for beta, size, value, and liquidity risk in the Indian stock market. In nutshell, the long-run reversal anomaly is not robust under multifactor asset pricing framework and the excess profits from long-run loser portfolio are nothing but compensation for the risk held.




IMPACT OF INFLATION ON EQUITY STOCK RETURNS - AN EMPIRICAL STUDY OF SELECT INDIAN BLUE CHIP COMPANIES


Book Description

Inflation is a state of economic condition in which there will be an increase in the general level of prices for goods and services. This book is about a study that attempts to give in-depth understanding of all aspects of inflation such as measurement of inflation, various prevailing hypothesis, relation between inflation & stock markets, causes and effects of inflation economics. It details causes, reasons & lessons from inflation and deals about the cost of inflation. The topics of CPI, other causes of inflation, fiscal deficits, effects of inflation and various types of inflation are described. Literature review is presented. Following aspects of study are made available. (1) Evaluation of the stock price movements and performance of BSE 30 stocks, (2) Examining the relationship between Inflation and stock returns of sample stocks, (3) Scrutinizing the relation between inflation and sample industries, (4) Understanding the impact of inflation on individual company performance and (5) Investigating causes for inflation and effect on stocks Research methodology is outlined and conceptual and statistical tools applied for analysis are detailed. Data Analysis of Stock Price Performance and Impact of Inflation on Industries are covered. The book covers the study aimed to understand and measure the impact of inflation on individual stock returns and industries. Based on the prior research it is assumed that inflation have negative impact on stock returns and stock markets. Earlier studies reported mixed results. Very few studies reported that inflation will have negative impact on stock returns. At the same time there are studies which argue that inflation will have positive impact on stock returns. On the other hand there are studies which do not find any statistically significant association between inflation and stock returns.




The SAGE Dictionary of Quantitative Management Research


Book Description

Electronic Inspection Copy available for instructors here A must-have reference resource for quantitative management researchers, the Dictionary contains over 100 entries covering the fundamentals of quantitative methodologies; covering both analysis and implementation and examples of use, as well as detailed graphics to aid understanding. Every entry features: -An introduction to the topic, -Key relevant features, -A worked example, -A concise summary and a selection of further reading suggestions -Cross-references to associated concepts within the dictionary




Stock Market Volatility


Book Description

Up-to-Date Research Sheds New Light on This Area Taking into account the ongoing worldwide financial crisis, Stock Market Volatility provides insight to better understand volatility in various stock markets. This timely volume is one of the first to draw on a range of international authorities who offer their expertise on market volatility in devel




Aging and the Macroeconomy


Book Description

The United States is in the midst of a major demographic shift. In the coming decades, people aged 65 and over will make up an increasingly large percentage of the population: The ratio of people aged 65+ to people aged 20-64 will rise by 80%. This shift is happening for two reasons: people are living longer, and many couples are choosing to have fewer children and to have those children somewhat later in life. The resulting demographic shift will present the nation with economic challenges, both to absorb the costs and to leverage the benefits of an aging population. Aging and the Macroeconomy: Long-Term Implications of an Older Population presents the fundamental factors driving the aging of the U.S. population, as well as its societal implications and likely long-term macroeconomic effects in a global context. The report finds that, while population aging does not pose an insurmountable challenge to the nation, it is imperative that sensible policies are implemented soon to allow companies and households to respond. It offers four practical approaches for preparing resources to support the future consumption of households and for adapting to the new economic landscape.




Semi-Strong Form Efficiency of Indian Stock Market in Post-Reform Period


Book Description

The Efficient Market Hypothesis is an elegant edifice that provides a basis on which the efficiency tests of a stock market are performed at three distinct levels: weak - form, semi-strong form and strong - form. This magnificent edifice of EMH rests on the Random Walk Theory which contends that all price changes reflect a random departure from previous prices. The weak form of the hypothesis states that prices efficiently reflect all information contained in the past series of stock prices whereas the semi-strong form efficiency contends that security prices factor in publicly available information in the market and that the price changes to new equilibrium levels are reflections of that information. The book checks the weak-form and semi-strong form efficiency of the Indian stock market by examining the behaviour of the stock prices in the Indian stock market after the introduction of the various financial sector reforms using different methodologies. By using NSE data over the period 1998-2005 - the period which witnessed some major crises, scams, intense capital market activities and introduction of many new financial instruments - the study examines the information contents of historical stock price data, quarterly earnings announcements, and stock splits. The book also checks for the presence of the Day-of- the- Week Effect in the Indian stock market and enquires whether the introduction of the various instruments and policy changes have made the Indian stock market weak-form and semi-strong form efficient i.e., whether the efficiency of the stock market has been restored in the post-reforms period compared to the situation in the pre-reform period.




The Handbook of Equity Market Anomalies


Book Description

Investment pioneer Len Zacks presents the latest academic research on how to beat the market using equity anomalies The Handbook of Equity Market Anomalies organizes and summarizes research carried out by hundreds of finance and accounting professors over the last twenty years to identify and measure equity market inefficiencies and provides self-directed individual investors with a framework for incorporating the results of this research into their own investment processes. Edited by Len Zacks, CEO of Zacks Investment Research, and written by leading professors who have performed groundbreaking research on specific anomalies, this book succinctly summarizes the most important anomalies that savvy investors have used for decades to beat the market. Some of the anomalies addressed include the accrual anomaly, net stock anomalies, fundamental anomalies, estimate revisions, changes in and levels of broker recommendations, earnings-per-share surprises, insider trading, price momentum and technical analysis, value and size anomalies, and several seasonal anomalies. This reliable resource also provides insights on how to best use the various anomalies in both market neutral and in long investor portfolios. A treasure trove of investment research and wisdom, the book will save you literally thousands of hours by distilling the essence of twenty years of academic research into eleven clear chapters and providing the framework and conviction to develop market-beating strategies. Strips the academic jargon from the research and highlights the actual returns generated by the anomalies, and documented in the academic literature Provides a theoretical framework within which to understand the concepts of risk adjusted returns and market inefficiencies Anomalies are selected by Len Zacks, a pioneer in the field of investing As the founder of Zacks Investment Research, Len Zacks pioneered the concept of the earnings-per-share surprise in 1982 and developed the Zacks Rank, one of the first anomaly-based stock selection tools. Today, his firm manages U.S. equities for individual and institutional investors and provides investment software and investment data to all types of investors. Now, with his new book, he shows you what it takes to build a quant process to outperform an index based on academically documented market inefficiencies and anomalies.




China's Rise And Internationalization: Regional And Global Challenges And Impacts


Book Description

2018 marks the 40th anniversary of the start of China's reform and opening up policy, which created China's growth miracle with an annual average growth rate of around 9.5 percent. China's rapid rise and internationalization has also generated profound impacts both regionally and globally. This edited book aims to bring together academics and researchers at policy institutions to discuss ongoing research on a wide range of theoretical and empirical issues related to China's rapid rise and internationalization from both regional and global perspectives.