Probabilistic Aspects of Life Prediction


Book Description

As fatigue and fracture mechanics approaches are used more often for determining the useful life and/or inspection intervals for complex structures, realization sets-in that all factors are not well known or characterized. Indeed, inherent scatter exists in initial material quality and in material performance. Furthermore, projections of component usage in determination of applied stresses are inexact at best and are subject to much discrepancy between projected and actual usage. Even the models for predicting life contain inherent sources of error based on assumptions and/or empirically fitted parameters. All of these factors need to be accounted for to determine a distribution of potential lives based on combination of the aforementioned variables, as well as other factors. The purpose of this symposium was to create a forum for assessment of the state-of-the-art in incorporating these uncertainties and inherent scatter into systematic probabilistic methods for conducting life assessment.




The Great Mental Models, Volume 1


Book Description

Discover the essential thinking tools you’ve been missing with The Great Mental Models series by Shane Parrish, New York Times bestselling author and the mind behind the acclaimed Farnam Street blog and “The Knowledge Project” podcast. This first book in the series is your guide to learning the crucial thinking tools nobody ever taught you. Time and time again, great thinkers such as Charlie Munger and Warren Buffett have credited their success to mental models–representations of how something works that can scale onto other fields. Mastering a small number of mental models enables you to rapidly grasp new information, identify patterns others miss, and avoid the common mistakes that hold people back. The Great Mental Models: Volume 1, General Thinking Concepts shows you how making a few tiny changes in the way you think can deliver big results. Drawing on examples from history, business, art, and science, this book details nine of the most versatile, all-purpose mental models you can use right away to improve your decision making and productivity. This book will teach you how to: Avoid blind spots when looking at problems. Find non-obvious solutions. Anticipate and achieve desired outcomes. Play to your strengths, avoid your weaknesses, … and more. The Great Mental Models series demystifies once elusive concepts and illuminates rich knowledge that traditional education overlooks. This series is the most comprehensive and accessible guide on using mental models to better understand our world, solve problems, and gain an advantage.




Engineering Design Reliability Applications


Book Description

In the current, increasingly aggressive business environment, crucial decisions about product design often involve significant uncertainty. Highlighting the competitive advantage available from using risk-based reliability design, Engineering Design Reliability Applications: For the Aerospace, Automotive, and Ship Industries provides an overview of




Probabilistic Prognostics and Health Management of Energy Systems


Book Description

This book proposes the formulation of an efficient methodology that estimates energy system uncertainty and predicts Remaining Useful Life (RUL) accurately with significantly reduced RUL prediction uncertainty. Renewable and non-renewable sources of energy are being used to supply the demands of societies worldwide. These sources are mainly thermo-chemo-electro-mechanical systems that are subject to uncertainty in future loading conditions, material properties, process noise, and other design parameters.It book informs the reader of existing and new ideas that will be implemented in RUL prediction of energy systems in the future. The book provides case studies, illustrations, graphs, and charts. Its chapters consider engineering, reliability, prognostics and health management, probabilistic multibody dynamical analysis, peridynamic and finite-element modelling, computer science, and mathematics.




Probabilistic Machine Learning


Book Description

A detailed and up-to-date introduction to machine learning, presented through the unifying lens of probabilistic modeling and Bayesian decision theory. This book offers a detailed and up-to-date introduction to machine learning (including deep learning) through the unifying lens of probabilistic modeling and Bayesian decision theory. The book covers mathematical background (including linear algebra and optimization), basic supervised learning (including linear and logistic regression and deep neural networks), as well as more advanced topics (including transfer learning and unsupervised learning). End-of-chapter exercises allow students to apply what they have learned, and an appendix covers notation. Probabilistic Machine Learning grew out of the author’s 2012 book, Machine Learning: A Probabilistic Perspective. More than just a simple update, this is a completely new book that reflects the dramatic developments in the field since 2012, most notably deep learning. In addition, the new book is accompanied by online Python code, using libraries such as scikit-learn, JAX, PyTorch, and Tensorflow, which can be used to reproduce nearly all the figures; this code can be run inside a web browser using cloud-based notebooks, and provides a practical complement to the theoretical topics discussed in the book. This introductory text will be followed by a sequel that covers more advanced topics, taking the same probabilistic approach.







Handbook of Probabilistic Models


Book Description

Handbook of Probabilistic Models carefully examines the application of advanced probabilistic models in conventional engineering fields. In this comprehensive handbook, practitioners, researchers and scientists will find detailed explanations of technical concepts, applications of the proposed methods, and the respective scientific approaches needed to solve the problem. This book provides an interdisciplinary approach that creates advanced probabilistic models for engineering fields, ranging from conventional fields of mechanical engineering and civil engineering, to electronics, electrical, earth sciences, climate, agriculture, water resource, mathematical sciences and computer sciences. Specific topics covered include minimax probability machine regression, stochastic finite element method, relevance vector machine, logistic regression, Monte Carlo simulations, random matrix, Gaussian process regression, Kalman filter, stochastic optimization, maximum likelihood, Bayesian inference, Bayesian update, kriging, copula-statistical models, and more. - Explains the application of advanced probabilistic models encompassing multidisciplinary research - Applies probabilistic modeling to emerging areas in engineering - Provides an interdisciplinary approach to probabilistic models and their applications, thus solving a wide range of practical problems




Probabilistic Structural Mechanics: Advances in Structural Reliability Methods


Book Description

This symposium is the seventh of a series of IUTAM sponsored symposia which focus on probabilistic methods in mechanics. It is the sequel to the series of meetings in Coventry, UK (1972), Southhampton, UK (1976), Frankfurt/Oder, Germany (1982), Stockholm, Sweden (1984), Innsbruck/Igls, Austria (1987), and Turin, Italy (1991). The symposium focused on advances in the area of probabilistic mechanics with direct application to structural reliability issues. The contributed papers address collectively the four components of a structural reliability problem. They are: characterization of stochastic loads, description of material properties in terms of fatigue and fracture, response determination, and quantitative assessment of the reliability of the structural system. Four Keynote Lectures by V. Bolotin (Russia), o. Ditlevsen (Denmark), R. Heller (USA), and F. Ziegler (Austria) were delivered; the remaining contributed papers were organized in ten technical sessIons. A reception was hosted by Dr. Y. Wu the first day of the symposium; the second day of the symposium a banquet was hosted by Dr. P. Spanos, with Dr. N. Abramson serving as the banquet speaker. Closing remarks were provided by the IUTAM Secretary General, Dr. F. Ziegler.




Security and Reliability of Damaged Structures and Defective Materials


Book Description

Structures that are essential for economy and security such as energy production, transportation and supply, water supply, buildings, are susceptible to failure, because of defects already present in the material, or created at fabrication, or appearing during service. Methods of assesment of the nocivity of these defects are needed, to predict the remaining service life and the eventual emergency of stopping service and repairing, if possible. To reach this objectives, this book presents the last methods derived from the classical linear, non-linear fracture mechanics concepts, including fatigue and notch fracture mechanics. Several examples of structures rehabilitations and repairing are given. This book gathers the presentation made during the Advanced Research Workshop held in Portoroz (Slovenia) in October 2008, under the auspices of NATO Science for Peace and Security Programme. It is edited by Professor Guy Pluvinage from the University Paul Verlaine – Metz (France) and Professor Aleksandar Sedmak from the University of Belgrade, Faculty of Mechanical Engineering. Both have a long and rich experience in analysis of theoretical and practical cases in safety and reliability of structures. Other contributors are all known as experts in the areas of fatigue, facture and reliability of structures.