Risk Analysis and Decision Processes


Book Description

For old and new studies in decision making and risk analysis, this book should stand at tlle watershed. Studies of conflict resolution and public policy will surely now have to take account of the model investigation provided by the IIASA team, and many things will not be the same again. This is a report of inquiries into the siting of liquefied energy gas (LEG) facilities in the Federal Republic of Germany, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, and the United States. The risks of transporting this highly combustible stuff, and the economic benefits of being able to bring a natural energy source from one side of the globe to the other, holding it, and piping it out as needed, make LEG a model case for studying the public response to dangerous technology. The dangers of LEG are differ ent from those of nuclear power, for instance, where the response too often becomes entangled with the fear of nuclear war. The dangers of LEG include unco~trollable explosions, rather than insidious contami nation. But the degree of dangerousness is very much of the same order as that of nuclear power, and is at least as difficult to assess. In four different countries the constitutional procedures involved in obtaining approval of nuclear or LEG facilities are on record. The four case histories here are a model for comparative study of conflict resolu tion. The period over which the negotiations developed is much the same.




Handbook for Environmental Risk Decision Making


Book Description

This handbook describes the broad aspects of risk management involving scientific policy judgment, uncertainty analysis, perception considerations, statistical insights, and strategic thinking. This book presents all the important concepts to enable the reader to "see the big picture." This ability is extremely important - it allows the decision maker or strategic environmental planner to understand and cope with a wide variety of complex and interlinked pieces of information and data. The text presents environmental problems and, whenever applicable, the methodology required to reach a successful solution. Decisions and policies are examined. The book covers numerous objective and subjective components of environmental risk decision making. It details quantitative and comparative risk, and investigates the cost and feasibility of different decisions. Social pressures, safety, and political, religious, ethical, and psychological issues are addressed. How to evaluate the potential impact on the quality of life also is discussed. Any company doing risk assessment, risk management, or risk communication, as well as those doing environmental decision making will find this reference to be invaluable. It is also suitable as a text for courses in environmental management, environmental science, and risk assessment in the areas of risk management and strategic environmental planning.




Analysing and Aiding Decision Processes


Book Description

This book contains an edited selection of papers presented at the Eighth Research Conference on Subjective Probability, Utility and Decision Making, held in Budapest. Together they span a wide range of new developments in studies of decision making, the practice of decision analysis and the development of decision-aiding technology. The volume is arranged in sections: Societal Decision Making; Organizational Decision Making; Aiding the Structuring of Small Scale Decision Problems, and Tracing Decision Processes. The emphasis is on decision processes and structures and their applications, rather than formal modelling in isolation, thus reflecting current developments in research and practice which follow from the understanding of the nature and operation of decision theoretical models gained during the 1970's. The fifth section, A Symposium on the Validity of Studies on Heuristics and Biases, is of a different nature. The papers take stock of the considerable volume of work investigation ``heuristics and biases'' in decision making over the past decade, and their implication for theory and practice.




The Geography of Survival


Book Description

Boris Komarov is the name under which Ze'ev Wolfson published his 1979 The Destruction of Nature in the Soviet Union in the west after he could not get it published in Moscow. He based his criticisms on his observations as an employee of the Soviet Department of Nature Preserves. Here he focuses on how aridization, the loss of natural soil, destruction of fresh water resources, and other ecological problems move across the landscape without regard to national boundaries. His examples are the migrating environmental degradations spawned by oil and gas production in Siberia and cotton production in the Aral basin. Annotation copyright by Book News, Inc., Portland, OR