Economic Decision Analysis


Book Description

This book ​discusses the art and science of economic decision making. It combines logical thinking with analytics, economics, and finance to draw decision insights for the upstream petroleum projects. The book offers useful analysis skills for practitioners in industry, including analysts, engineers, and managers. In addition, advanced undergraduate and graduate students in petroleum engineering, applied petroleum geoscience, industrial engineering, and energy business would benefit from the discussions in this book.




Fundamentals of Engineering Economics and Decision Analysis


Book Description

The authors cover two general topics: basic engineering economics and risk analysis in this text. Within the topic of engineering economics are discussions on the time value of money and interest relationships. These interest relationships are used to define certain project criteria that are used by engineers and project managers to select the best economic choice among several alternatives. Projects examined will include both income- and service-producing investments. The effects of escalation, inflation, and taxes on the economic analysis of alternatives are discussed. Risk analysis incorporates the concepts of probability and statistics in the evaluation of alternatives. This allows management to determine the probability of success or failure of the project. Two types of sensitivity analyses are presented. The first is referred to as the range approach while the second uses probabilistic concepts to determine a measure of the risk involved. The authors have designed the text to assist individuals to prepare to successfully complete the economics portions of the Fundamentals of Engineering Exam. Table of Contents: Introduction / Interest and the Time Value of Money / Project Evaluation Methods / Service Producing Investments / Income Producing Investments / Determination of Project Cash Flow / Financial Leverage / Basic Statistics and Probability / Sensitivity Analysis




Risk and Decision Analysis in Projects


Book Description

Some of Schuyler's tried-and-true tips include: - The single-point estimate is almost always wrong, so that it is always better to express judgments as ranges. A probability distribution completely expresses someone's judgment about the likelihood of values within the range.- We often need a single-value cost or other assessment, and the expected value (mean) of the distribution is the only unbiased predictor. Expected value is the probability-weighted average, and this statistical idea is the cornerstone of decision analysis.- Some decisions are easy, perhaps aided by quick decision tree calculations on the back of an envelope. Decision dilemmas typically involve risky outcomes, many factors, and the best alternatives having comparable value. We only need analysis sufficient to confidently identify the best alternative. As soon as you know what to do, stop the analysis!- Be alert to ways to beneficially change project risks. We can often eliminate, avoid, transfer, or mitigate threats in some way. Get to know the people who make their living helping managers sidestep risk. They include insurance agents, partners, turnkey contractors, accountants, trainers, and safety personnel.




Decision-making on Mega-projects


Book Description

It will be useful for those experienced and senior professionals who are charged with authorizing and controlling projects. Recommended. P.F. Rad, Choice Building on the seminal work of Bent Flyvbjerg, this book is a collection of expert contributions that will prove essential to anyone wanting to understand why mega-projects go wrong and how they can be made to work better. Professor Sir Peter Hall, University College London, UK This book offers a refreshing and fascinating look at mega-projects from the perspective of public evaluation and planning. With the changing role of the public sector in planning and implementing large-scale projects and a subsequent strong emergence of private public modes of operation, mega-projects have become a problematic phenomenon. This volume is a major source of information and reference. It provides the reader with unique insights and caveats in mega-projects planning. Peter Nijkamp, VU University Amsterdam, The Netherlands This book enlarges the understanding of decision-making on mega-projects and suggest recommendations for a more effective, efficient and democratic approach. Authors from different scientific disciplines address various aspects of the decision-making process, such as management characteristics and cost benefit analysis, planning and innovation and competition and institutions. The subject matter is highly diverse, but certain questions remain at the forefront. For example, how do we deal with protracted preparation processes, how do we tackle risks and uncertainties, and how can we best divide the risks and responsibilities among the private and public players throughout the different phases of the project? Presenting a state-of-the-art overview, based on experiences and visions of authors from Europe and North America, this unique book will be of interest to practitioners of large-scale project management, politicians, public officials and private organisations involved in mega-project decision-making. It will also appeal to researchers, consultants and students dealing with substantial engineering projects, complex systems, project management and transport infrastructure.




Guidelines for the Economic Analysis of Projects


Book Description

Project economic analysis is a tool used by the Asian Development Bank (ADB) to ensure that ADB operations comply with its Charter. The guidelines in this publication are a revised version of the 1997 edition. The revision responds to the changing development context and ADB operational priorities, and aims to address the recommendations of the ADB Quality-at-Entry Assessments for more methodological work on project economic analysis. The revised guidelines provide general principles for the conduct of project economic analysis, and should be read together with handbooks, technical reports, and other reference materials published by ADB dealing with sector-specific project economic analysis in detail.




Engineering Managerial Economic Decision and Risk Analysis


Book Description

This book directs the engineering manager or the undergraduate student preparing to become an engineering manager, who is or will become actively engaged in the management of economic-risk trade-off decisions for engineering investments within an organizational system. In today’s global economy, this may mean managing the economic risks of engineering investments across national boundaries in international organizations, government, or service organizations. As such, this is an applied book. The book’s goal is to provide an easy to understand, up to date, and coherent treatment of the management of the economic-risk trade-offs of engineering investments. This book accomplishes this goal by cumulatively sequencing knowledge content from foundational economic and accounting concepts to cost estimating to the traditional engineering economics knowledge culminating in fundamental engineering managerial economic decision-making incorporating risk into engineering management economic decisions.




Portfolio Decision Analysis


Book Description

Portfolio Decision Analysis: Improved Methods for Resource Allocation provides an extensive, up-to-date coverage of decision analytic methods which help firms and public organizations allocate resources to 'lumpy' investment opportunities while explicitly recognizing relevant financial and non-financial evaluation criteria and the presence of alternative investment opportunities. In particular, it discusses the evolution of these methods, presents new methodological advances and illustrates their use across several application domains. The book offers a many-faceted treatment of portfolio decision analysis (PDA). Among other things, it (i) synthesizes the state-of-play in PDA, (ii) describes novel methodologies, (iii) fosters the deployment of these methodologies, and (iv) contributes to the strengthening of research on PDA. Portfolio problems are widely regarded as the single most important application context of decision analysis, and, with its extensive and unique coverage of these problems, this book is a much-needed addition to the literature. The book also presents innovative treatments of new methodological approaches and their uses in applications. The intended audience consists of practitioners and researchers who wish to gain a good understanding of portfolio decision analysis and insights into how PDA methods can be leveraged in different application contexts. The book can also be employed in courses at the post-graduate level.




Economic and Financial Analysis for Engineering and Project Management


Book Description

Economic and Financial Analysis for Engineering and Project Management is for engineers and others who must analyze the financial and economic ramifications of producing and sustaining capital projects. Unlike other books in the field, it offers straightforward and lucid explanations of all main formulas needed to carry out financial analyses. The







The Economics of Project Analysis


Book Description

'The Economics of Project Analysis: A Practitioner's Guide' is written for project practitioners, for instructors in agricultural project economic analysis, and for students of that subject. This guide extends and complements the discussion of project and policy economics contained in the second edition of 'Economic Analysis of Agricultural Projects', by J. Price Gittinger--referred to throughout this volume as Gittinger (1982). ISBN10:0-8213-1751-2 ISBN13:978-0-8213-1751-8