Public Debt Sustainability in Developing Asia


Book Description

Addressing the Global Financial Crisis required fiscal intervention on a substantial scale by governments around the world. The consequent build up of public debt, in particular its sustainability, have moved centre stage in the policy debate. If the Asia Pacific region is to continue to serve as an engine for global growth its public debt must be sustainable. The book addresses this issue for Asia Pacific as a whole as well as for three of the most dynamic economies in the region: China, India and Vietnam. The book begins with a discussion of the reasons why there is increased attention on debt related issues and outline the contents of the volume. The book also includes fiscal indicators for Developing Member Countries (DMCs) as categorized by the Asian Development Bank (ADB). Debt sustainability for these countries is assessed through extant approaches and with the most updated data sources. It also surveys the extant literature on debt sustainability, outlining the main issues related to debt sustainability and discusses the key implications for the application of debt sustainability analysis in developing Asia. The book highlights the importance of doing individual country studies in view of wide variations in definitions of public expenditure, revenues, contingent liabilities, government structures (e.g. federal), and the like as well as in the impact of debt on interest rates. It provides in-depth debt sustainability analyses of China, India and Vietnam. The book is a comprehensive analytical and empirical update of the sustainability public debt in developing Asia. It breakes new ground in that various characteristics of the sustainability that have not yet been explored in the literature which, nevertheless, are crucial to understanding it. As a consequence, the policy analysis is based on firmer footings than in the extant literature and should prove useful to graduate students, researchers as well as policymakers.







Public Debt Sustainability Assessments for Developing Asia


Book Description

The fiscal stimulus measures that many Asian countries took to counteract the 2008/9 global financial crisis helped the region lead the global recovery. Yet, with few exceptions, the increased spending and weakened revenues have caused government budget balances and debt ratios to deteriorate across the region. The research underpinning this book clearly illustrates the extent that the crisis response has altered fiscal positions in the region and the implications for the future path of public debts. The study also raises important questions about the techniques used to gauge debt sustainability, demonstrating how the use of stochastic forecasting techniques can enrich the analysis. The research contributes to the ongoing debate among policy makers, academicians, and other practitioners on how best to assess a country's debt dynamics.




The Sustainability of Asia’s Debt


Book Description

This is an open access title available under the terms of a [CC BY 3.0 IGO] License. It is free to read, download and share on Elgaronline.com. Asia has shown the world what success in economic development looks like. From the amazing transformations of Japan, the Republic of Korea, and the other ‘tigers’ in the early 70s, to the more recent takeoffs of the People’s Republic of China (PRC), India, and the leading economies in Southeast Asia, the region has prospered at a startling pace. Technologies were adopted, productivity raised, and export markets conquered. Billions were lifted out of poverty. What was once a backwater is now a global engine of growth.




Public Debt Sustainability in Developing Asia


Book Description

Addressing the global financial crisis has required fiscal intervention on a substantial scale by governments around the world. The consequent buildup of public debt, in particular its sustainability, has moved to center stage in the policy debate. If the Asia and Pacific region is to continue to serve as an engine for global growth, its public debt must be sustainable. Public Debt Sustainability in Developing Asia addresses this issue for Asia and the Pacific as a whole as well as for three of the most dynamic economies in the region: the People’s Republic of China, India, and Viet Nam. The book begins with a discussion of the reasons for increased attention to debt-related issues. It also introduces fiscal indicators for the Asian Development. Bank’s developing member countries and economies. The sustainability of their debt is assessed through extant approaches and with the most up-to-date data sources. The book also surveys the existing literature on debt sustainability, outlining the main issues related to it, and discusses the key implications for the application of debt sustainability analysis in developing Asia. Also highlighted is the importance of conducting individual country studies in view of wide variations in definitions of public expenditure, revenues, contingent liabilities, government structures (e.g., federal), and the like, as well as the impact of debt on interest rates. The book further provides in-depth debt sustainability analyses for the People’s Republic of China, India, and Viet Nam. Public Debt Sustainability in Developing Asia offers a comprehensive analytical and empirical update on the sustainability of public debt in the region. It breaks new ground in examining characteristics that are crucial to understanding sustainability and offers richer policy analysis that should prove useful for policymakers, researchers, and graduate students.




Quantifying the Sustainability of Public Debt


Book Description

Despite its beneficial aspects, public debt can be hazardous for macroeconomic performance should it reach unrepayable levels as a consequence of snowballing explosive trends. Failure to monitor the existing trend in public debt in order to detect such divergences from the stable path, and the lack of an adaptive public financial management can potentially culminate in a public debt crisis whose disruptive economic impacts can permeate all sectors of the economy very swiftly. However, public debt sustainability is a vague concept with no straightforward operational definitions. In addition, its multi-faceted nature is an impediment for the implementation of real-world appraisal of the fiscal posture from a stability viewpoint. As such, quantifying the public debt sustainability is essential for overhauling the fiscal policies so as to avoid a potential debt crisis stemming from malfunctioning fiscal policies. This book provides the reader with a practical and straightforward framework that outlines a tool for undertaking public debt sustainability analysis. In order to guide further empirical investigations, the discussion in this book is underpinned by a real-world application of the model which highlights the practical aspects of the tool with reference to time-varying empirical evidence from a developing country.




Economic and Social Survey of Asia and the Pacific 2023


Book Description

One of the main value additions of the Survey 2023 is a proposal for an augmented Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) approach that duly incorporates SDG investment needs, potential socioeconomic and environmental gains, government's structural policies that go beyond financial considerations, and government's resource mobilization strategies and financial capacity. The Survey 2023 also provides new insights on how to prevent potential public debt crises and resolve public debt distress in order to effectively pursue the SDGs. For example, in prevention of public debt crisis, governments will need to explore unconventional policy measures such as leveraging the potential of non-tax policy measures and public assets. In resolving public debt distress governments might need to bring the rising number of commercial debt creditors into discussions with the existing institutional investors, while fundamental policy actions to enhance fiscal resources are still needed, governments will also need to explore unconventional policy measures, such as leveraging the potential of non-tax policy measures and public assets amid rising public indebtedness. In resolving public debt distress, while the emergence of commercial creditors brings new opportunities as many of them are increasingly mindful about the importance of sustainable development, their participation in the existing global debt architecture is virtually missing. At the same time, several unconventional, SDG-aligned debt relief modalities have recently been proposed. Amid these and other changes in the global and Asia-Pacific debt landscapes and rising public indebtedness in the region, it is time to rethink public debt issues in support of the SDGs.




Supporting Quality Infrastructure in Developing Asia


Book Description

This report explains how the quality of infrastructure investments in developing Asia can be enhanced and why this is vital for the region's sustainable recovery from the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic. It emphasizes the need to balance urgent demand for infrastructure financing with governance approaches that focus on boosting efficiency and integrating infrastructure systems. The report also explores how the Asian Development Bank can strengthen its support for quality infrastructure in the region through its financing instruments, programs, and projects.







Debt Sustainability Analyses for Low-Income Countries: An Assessment of Projection Performance


Book Description

This paper develops new error assessment methods to evaluate the performance of debt sustainability analyses (DSAs) for low-income countries (LICs) from 2005-2015. We find some evidence of a bias towards optimism for public and external debt projections, which was most appreciable for LICs with the highest incomes, prospects for market access, and at ‘moderate’ risk of debt distress. This was often driven by overly-ambitious fiscal and/or growth forecasts, and projected ‘residuals’. When we control for unanticipated shocks, we find that biases remain evident, driven in part by optimism regarding government fiscal reaction functions and expected growth dividends from investment.