Regional Economic Issues, May 2017, Central, Eastern, and Southeastern Europe


Book Description

Economic growth is broadening in Central, Eastern, and Southeastern Europe. Further ahead, however, growth prospects are tested by a dwindling workforce and weak productivity. Reaching Western European income levels would thus take longer, says the IMF in its Regional Economic Issues update on the region.




Regional Economic Outlook, November 2017, Europe


Book Description

The European recovery is strengthening and broadening appreciably. Real GDP growth is projected at 2.4 percent in 2017, up from 1.7 percent in 2016, before easing to 2.1 percent in 2018. These are large upward revisions—0.5 and 0.2 percentage point for 2017 and 2018, respectively—relative to the April World Economic Outlook. The European recovery is spilling over to the rest of the world, contributing significantly to global growth. In a few advanced and many emerging economies, unemployment rates have returned to precrisis levels. Most emerging market European economies are now seeing robust wage growth. In many parts of Europe, however, wage growth is sluggish despite falling unemployment.




Central and Eastern European Economies and the War in Ukraine


Book Description

Zusammenfassung: This book takes stock of and analyses the direct and indirect effects of the war in Ukraine, the policy response to the shock across countries, as well as the potential medium-term economic and social implications and policy challenges. The last decade most Central and Eastern European (CEE) economies have been on a convergence path towards the EU average according to the main economic indicators. In 2022, however, the terrible war in Ukraine had major spillovers to the rest of the world, with the CEE economies being among the most exposed. The millions of refugees, the disruptions to energy supply, trade and supply chains, the surge in inflation, the tightening of global financial conditions, and elevated uncertainty created a radically new economic and social environment in these countries. The volume covers the economic effects of these challenges, the policy options available, and also those related to the eventual reconstruction of Ukraine, including the potential role of the CEE countries. Based on data and evidence-supported policy analysis, each chapter studies the impact of the shock on a particular area of the economy and makes general and country-specific policy recommendations. This makes this book a must-read for students, scholars, and researchers of economics and neighboring disciplines, as well as policy-makers interested in a better understading of the direct and indirect effects of the war in Ukraine on the CEE countries. The book is a sequel to the volume Emerging European Economies after the Pandemic, (Springer Nature, January 2022). Chapter "Economic Growth & Resilience" is available open access under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License via link.springer.com.




Regional Economic Outlook, May 2018, Europe


Book Description

Europe continues to enjoy a strong growth spurt. Growth has firmed up in many European economies and the forecast is for more of the same. Real GDP increased by 2.8 percent in 2017, up from 1.8 percent in 2016. The expansion is largely driven by domestic demand, with investment increasingly contributing. Credit growth has finally picked up, which is helping Europe’s banks to rebuild profitability. While leading indicators have recently begun to ease, they remain at high levels. Accordingly, the forecast is for growth to stay strong, reaching 2.6 percent in 2018 and 2.2 percent in 2019. Amid the good times, however, fiscal adjustment and structural reforms efforts are flagging.




How to Finance Cohesion in Europe?


Book Description

Amid formidable challenges, Europe’s future depends not least on the capacity of its economies to converge toward their better performing peers. Dissecting the complexity of cohesion, this book analyzes which dimensions matter most for the smooth functioning of Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) and for the (income) convergence of Central, Eastern and Southeastern European (CESEE) countries. Central bankers, policy-makers and academics discuss how to best advance the catching-up process and look into EU structural and cohesion policies, critically assessing their contribution to economic and social development.




Global Trends 2040


Book Description

"The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.




How Should Credit Gaps Be Measured? An Application to European Countries


Book Description

Assessing when credit is excessive is important to understand macro-financial vulnerabilities and guide macroprudential policy. The Basel Credit Gap (BCG) – the deviation of the credit-to-GDP ratio from its long-term trend estimated with a one-sided Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filter—is the indicator preferred by the Basel Committee because of its good performance as an early warning of banking crises. However, for a number of European countries this indicator implausibly suggests that credit should go back to its level at the peak of the boom after the credit cycle turns, resulting in large negative gaps that might delay the activation of macroprudential policies. We explore two different approaches—a multivariate filter based on economic theory and a fundamentals-based panel regression. Each approach has pros and cons, but they both provide a useful complement to the BCG in assessing macro-financial vulnerabilities in Europe.




Albania


Book Description

This paper explores Albania’s current account (CA) deficit that improved in 2016, but remains sizable. The EBA-Lite model results indicate that the external position is moderately weaker than implied by fundamentals and desirable policy settings. Adjusting for Albania’s specific circumstances, the current account gap is estimated at -1.0 percent and the real effective exchange rate is overvalued by about 6 percent, reflecting Albania’s low national saving and large FDI inflows. Though Albania has benefitted from the recent tourism boom in the region, the outlook for exports remains challenging. Despite its cost competitiveness, exports are narrowly concentrated in a few low-value added sectors while new investments in the nonenergy tradable sector are limited. To close Albania’s competitiveness gap and strengthen its external position, the authorities should complete key infrastructure projects to reduce transportation costs and address energy sector reliability; increase domestic savings; improve governance and the rule of law; and raise labor market efficiency by reducing skills shortages.




A Fresh Look at Potential Output in Central, Eastern, and Southeastern European Countries


Book Description

Was the postcrisis growth slowdown in Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe (CESEE) structural or cyclical? We use three different methods—production function approach, basic multivariate filter, and multivariate filter with financial frictions—to evaluate potential growth and output gaps for 18 CESEE countries during 2000-15. Our findings suggest that potential growth weakened significantly after the crisis across most countries in the region. This decline appears to be largely due to stagnant productivity and weaker capital accumulation, which were associated with common external factors, including trading partners’ slow potential growth, but also decline in global trade and stalled expansion of global value chains. Our estimates suggest that output gaps in 2015 were largely closed in many countries in the region.




Bulgaria


Book Description

This Selected Issues paper examines corporate productivity growth in Bulgaria using firm-level data. Firms with a higher share of innovative assets and lower financial distress are estimated to have higher productivity growth. Foreign, larger, and younger firms and firms in the tradable sectors also generally had faster productivity growth. The convergence of productivity to frontier firms may have slowed after the global financial crisis for existing firms. The evidence points to technological convergence for both total factor productivity and labor productivity to industry leaders. The result is robust with the coefficient statistically significant at the 1 percent level in all specifications. Policies that support R&D and innovation, improve business environment, and reduce debt service burden could potentially help raise productivity growth. Bulgaria’s R&D spending lags behind other EU countries and there is ample room for improvement. A better business environment supported by stronger institutions could help improve company’s profitability and financial health, raise investment, and attract more foreign direct investment, all conducive to raising productivity growth.