Rethinking Fiscal Policy in Oil-Exporting Countries


Book Description

We examine the existing fiscal policy paradigm in commodity-exporting countries. First, we argue that its centerpiece—the permanent income hypothesis (PIH)—is not consistent with either intergenerational equity or long-term sustainability in the presence of uncertainty. Policies to achieve these goals need to be more prudent and better anchored than the PIH. Second, we point out the presence of a volatility tradeoff between government spending and wealth and re-assess long-held views on the appropriate fiscal anchors, the vice of procyclicality, and the (im)possibility of simultaneously smoothing consumption and ensuring intergenerational equity and sustainability. Finally, we propose what we call a prudent wealth stabilization policy that would be more consistent with long-term fiscal policy goals, yet relatively simple to implement and communicate.




Rethinking Fiscal Policy in Oil-Exporting Countries


Book Description

We examine the existing fiscal policy paradigm in commodity-exporting countries. First, we argue that its centerpiece—the permanent income hypothesis (PIH)—is not consistent with either intergenerational equity or long-term sustainability in the presence of uncertainty. Policies to achieve these goals need to be more prudent and better anchored than the PIH. Second, we point out the presence of a volatility tradeoff between government spending and wealth and re-assess long-held views on the appropriate fiscal anchors, the vice of procyclicality, and the (im)possibility of simultaneously smoothing consumption and ensuring intergenerational equity and sustainability. Finally, we propose what we call a prudent wealth stabilization policy that would be more consistent with long-term fiscal policy goals, yet relatively simple to implement and communicate.




The Future of Oil and Fiscal Sustainability in the GCC Region


Book Description

The oil market is undergoing fundamental change. New technologies are increasing the supply of oil from old and new sources, while rising concerns over the environment are seeing the world gradually moving away from oil. This spells a significant challenge for oil-exporting countries, including those of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) who account for a fifth of the world’s oil production. The GCC countries have recognized the need to reduce their reliance on oil and are all implementing reforms to diversify their economies as well as fiscal and external revenues. Nevertheless, as global oil demand is expected to peak in the next two decades, the associated fiscal imperative could be both larger and more urgent than implied by the GCC countries’ existing plans.




Coordination of Monetary and Fiscal Policies


Book Description

Recently, monetary authorities have increasingly focused on implementing policies to ensure price stability and strengthen central bank independence. Simultaneously, in the fiscal area, market development has allowed public debt managers to focus more on cost minimization. This “divorce” of monetary and debt management functions in no way lessens the need for effective coordination of monetary and fiscal policy if overall economic performance is to be optimized and maintained in the long term. This paper analyzes these issues based on a review of the relevant literature and of country experiences from an institutional and operational perspective.




Fiscal Policy and Long-Term Growth


Book Description

This paper explores how fiscal policy can affect medium- to long-term growth. It identifies the main channels through which fiscal policy can influence growth and distills practical lessons for policymakers. The particular mix of policy measures, however, will depend on country-specific conditions, capacities, and preferences. The paper draws on the Fund’s extensive technical assistance on fiscal reforms as well as several analytical studies, including a novel approach for country studies, a statistical analysis of growth accelerations following fiscal reforms, and simulations of an endogenous growth model.




The Economy of Saudi Arabia in the 21st Century


Book Description

This book is about Saudi Arabia's efforts to overhaul its economy and the numerous prospects and challenges it faces in doing so. As one of the world's leading oil producers, the outcomes of the most ambitious wave of reforms Saudi Arabia has ever undertaken will provide valuable lessons not only for the kingdom itself but also for other oil-dependent and resource-based economies. Since 2016, Saudi Arabia has embarked on an unparalleled economic - if not social and political - transformation project with an ultimate aim of diversifying away from oil. New sources of growth such as tourism, industry, and entertainment have been identified, but it remains to be seen whether these will be enough to sustain the economy in the post-oil era. Reforms, including lowering energy subsidies, instituting VAT, and introducing indirect taxes on labor and businesses, have already produced notable results. Looking ahead, the economy requires rigorous and continuous processes of severe competition amongst its private sector participants as well as strong institutions. It also requires creative destruction to be allowed to run its course within the wider economy. The economic reform experiment undertaken by Saudi Arabia remains the most sweeping among emerging market economies - and certainly in the entire Middle East. The changes are all encompassing and involve a complex redrawing of the political, economic, religious, and social map.




Rethinking Fiscal Policy after the Crisis


Book Description

This book discusses the often overlooked future of fiscal policy in light of what we have learned from the financial crisis. This book is for academics and graduate students studying the debate on fiscal policy, as well as practitioners working on day-to-day policy issues.










Rethinking Macroeconomics for Sustainability


Book Description

Macroeconomic policies have devastating effects on the environment. They shape the economic processes that drive deforestation, soil erosion, the exhaustion of living marine resources, greenhouse gas emissions, and the massive loss of biodiversity. Despite this, the vital connection between macroeconomic policies and the environment has thus far received little attention by the academic and the policy-making communities. Rethinking Macroeconomics for Sustainability reveals the linkages between monetary, financial and fiscal policies, and the environmental degradation that threatens the planet's biosphere. In doing so, it examines the complex lines of transmission from policy priorities all the way down to the effects at the local level, as well as analyzing the deep-seated relationship between macroeconomic policy models and their impacts on growth, peoples' livelihoods and the environment. Besides exploring the relation between macroeconomic and climate change policies, as well as efforts to 'green' the world economy, the book considers five key case studies in Latin American economies. Going beyond this, it also sets out specific policy recommendations, both at the national and international levels. All this is based on the incontrovertible premise that macroeconomic policies must to be redesigned in order to attain long-term sustainability objectives, and that monetary and fiscal policies are as important for environmental stewardship as they are for growth and prosperity.