Risk Theory


Book Description

This book provides an overview of classical actuarial techniques, including material that is not readily accessible elsewhere such as the Ammeter risk model and the Markov-modulated risk model. Other topics covered include utility theory, credibility theory, claims reserving and ruin theory. The author treats both theoretical and practical aspects and also discusses links to Solvency II. Written by one of the leading experts in the field, these lecture notes serve as a valuable introduction to some of the most frequently used methods in non-life insurance. They will be of particular interest to graduate students, researchers and practitioners in insurance, finance and risk management.




Risk Theory


Book Description

Apart from its foray into technical issues of risk assessment and management, this book has one principal aim. With situations of chancy outcomes certain key factors—including outcome possibilities, overall expectation, threat, and even luck—are measurable parameters. But risk is something different: it is not measurable a single parametric quantity, but a many-sided factor that has several different components, and constitutes a complex phenomenon that must be assessed judgmentally in a highly contextualized way. This book explains and analyzes how this works out in practice. Topics in this work include choice and risk, chance and likelihood, as well as outcome-yield evaluation and risk. It takes into account abnormal situations and eccentric measurements, situational evaluation and expectation and scrutinizes the social aspect of risk. The book is of interest to logicians, philosophers of mathematics, and researchers of risk assessment. The project is a companion piece to the author's LUCK THEORY, also published by Springer.




Modern Actuarial Risk Theory


Book Description

Modern Actuarial Risk Theory contains what every actuary needs to know about non-life insurance mathematics. It starts with the standard material like utility theory, individual and collective model and basic ruin theory. Other topics are risk measures and premium principles, bonus-malus systems, ordering of risks and credibility theory. It also contains some chapters about Generalized Linear Models, applied to rating and IBNR problems. As to the level of the mathematics, the book would fit in a bachelors or masters program in quantitative economics or mathematical statistics. This second and.




Risk Theory and Reinsurance


Book Description

Reinsurance is an important production factor of non-life insurance. The efficiency and the capacity of the reinsurance market directly regulate those of insurance markets. The purpose of this book is to provide a concise introduction to risk theory, as well as to its main application procedures to reinsurance. The first part of the book covers risk theory. It presents the most prevalent model of ruin theory, as well as a discussion on insurance premium calculation principles and the mathematical tools that enable portfolios to be ordered according to their risk levels. The second part describes the institutional context of reinsurance. It first strives to clarify the legal nature of reinsurance transactions. It describes the structure of the reinsurance market and then the different legal and technical features of reinsurance contracts, known as reinsurance ‘treaties’ by practitioners. The third part creates a link between the theories presented in the first part and the practice described in the second one. Indeed, it sets out, mostly through examples, some methods for pricing and optimizing reinsurance. The authors aim is to apply the formalism presented in the first part to the institutional framework given in the second part. It is reassuring to find such a relationship between approaches seemingly abstract and solutions adopted by practitioners. Risk Theory and Reinsurance is mainly aimed at master's students in actuarial science but will also be useful for practitioners wishing to revive their knowledge of risk theory or to quickly learn about the main mechanisms of reinsurance.




Aspects of Risk Theory


Book Description

Risk theory, which deals with stochastic models of an insurance business, is a classical application of probability theory. The fundamental problem in risk theory is to investigate the ruin possibility of the risk business. Traditionally the occurrence of the claims is described by a Poisson process and the cost of the claims by a sequence of random variables. This book is a treatise of risk theory with emphasis on models where the occurrence of the claims is described by more general point processes than the Poisson process, such as renewal processes, Cox processes and general stationary point processes. In the Cox case the possibility of risk fluctuation is explicitly taken into account. The presentation is based on modern probabilistic methods rather than on analytic methods. The theory is accompanied with discussions on practical evaluation of ruin probabilities and statistical estimation. Many numerical illustrations of the results are given.




Risk Theory


Book Description

The theory of risk already has its traditions. A review of its classical results is contained in Bohlmann (1909). This classical theory was associated with life insurance mathematics, and dealt mainly with deviations which were expected to be produced by random fluctua tions in individual policies. According to this theory, these deviations are discounted to some initial instant; the square root of the sum of the squares of the capital values calculated in this way then gives a measure for the stability of the portfolio. A theory constituted in this manner is not, however, very appropriate for practical purposes. The fact is that it does not give an answer to such questions as, for example, within what limits a company's probable gain or loss will lie during different periods. Further, non-life insurance, to which risk theory has, in fact, its most rewarding applications, was mainly outside the field of interest of the risk theorists. Thus it is quite understandable that this theory did not receive very much attention and that its applications to practical problems of insurance activity remained rather unimportant. A new phase of development began following the studies of Filip Lundberg (1909, 1919), which, thanks to H. Cramer (1926), e.O.




Gerber–Shiu Risk Theory


Book Description

Motivated by the many and long-standing contributions of H. Gerber and E. Shiu, this book gives a modern perspective on the problem of ruin for the classical Cramér–Lundberg model and the surplus of an insurance company. The book studies martingales and path decompositions, which are the main tools used in analysing the distribution of the time of ruin, the wealth prior to ruin and the deficit at ruin. Recent developments in exotic ruin theory are also considered. In particular, by making dividend or tax payments out of the surplus process, the effect on ruin is explored. Gerber-Shiu Risk Theory can be used as lecture notes and is suitable for a graduate course. Each chapter corresponds to approximately two hours of lectures.




Handbook of Risk Theory


Book Description

Risk has become one of the main topics in fields as diverse as engineering, medicine and economics, and it is also studied by social scientists, psychologists and legal scholars. But the topic of risk also leads to more fundamental questions such as: What is risk? What can decision theory contribute to the analysis of risk? What does the human perception of risk mean for society? How should we judge whether a risk is morally acceptable or not? Over the last couple of decades questions like these have attracted interest from philosophers and other scholars into risk theory. This handbook provides for an overview into key topics in a major new field of research. It addresses a wide range of topics, ranging from decision theory, risk perception to ethics and social implications of risk, and it also addresses specific case studies. It aims to promote communication and information among all those who are interested in theoetical issues concerning risk and uncertainty. This handbook brings together internationally leading philosophers and scholars from other disciplines who work on risk theory. The contributions are accessibly written and highly relevant to issues that are studied by risk scholars. We hope that the Handbook of Risk Theory will be a helpful starting point for all risk scholars who are interested in broadening and deepening their current perspectives.




Practical Risk Theory for Actuaries


Book Description

This classic textbook covers all aspects of risk theory in a practical way. It builds on from the late R.E. Beard's extremely popular book Risk Theory, but features more emphasis on simulation and modeling and on the use of risk theory as a practical tool. Practical Risk Theory is a textbook for practicing and student actuaries on the practical aspects of stochastic modeling of the insurance business. It has its roots in the classical theory of risk but introduces many new elements that are important in managing the insurance business but are usually ignored in the classical theory. The authors avoid overcomplicated mathematics and provide an abundance of diagrams.




Mathematical Methods in Risk Theory


Book Description

From the reviews: "The huge literature in risk theory has been carefully selected and supplemented by personal contributions of the author, many of which appear here for the first time. The result is a systematic and very readable book, which takes into account the most recent developments of the field. It will be of great interest to the actuary as well as to the statistician . . ." -- Math. Reviews Vol. 43