The Future Of Large, Internationally Active Banks


Book Description

The Great Financial Crisis of 2007-2010 has had a major impact on large cross-border banks, which are widely blamed for the start and severity of the crisis. As a result, much public policy, both in the United States and elsewhere, has been directed at making these banks safer and less influential by reducing their size and permissible powers through increased government regulation.At the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago's 18th annual International Banking Conference, held in November 2015, the status of these large cross-border banks was critically evaluated. In collaboration with the World Bank, the conference held discussions on the current regulatory landscape for large and internationally active financial institutions; the impact of regulation on bank permissible activities and international trade; improvements in risk management; necessary repairs to the bank safety net; the resolution of insolvent banks operating across national borders; corporate governance for banks in the new environment; implications for market and government discipline; and, progress in achieving international cooperation.Contributors include international policymakers, practitioners, researchers, and academics from more than 30 countries. The papers from the conference are collected in this volume.




Foreign Banks


Book Description

This paper introduces a comprehensive database on bank ownership for 137 countries over 1995-2009, and reviews foreign bank behavior and impact. It documents substantial increases in foreign bank presence, with many more home and host countries. Current market shares of foreign banks average 20 percent in OECD countries and 50 percent elsewhere. Foreign banks have higher capital and more liquidity, but lower profitability than domestic banks do. Only in developing countries is foreign bank presence negatively related with domestic credit creation. During the global crisis foreign banks reduced credit more compared to domestic banks, except when they dominated the host banking systems.




International Commodity Prices and Domestic Bank Lending in Developing Countries


Book Description

We study the role of the bank-lending channel in propagating fluctuations in commodity prices to credit aggregates and economic activity in developing countries. We use data on more than 1,600 banks from 78 developing countries to analyze the transmission of changes in international commodity prices to domestic bank lending. Identification relies on a bankspecific time-varying measure of bank sensitivity to changes in commodity prices, based on daily data on bank stock prices. We find that a fall in commodity prices reduces bank lending, although this effect is confined to low-income countries and driven by commodity price busts. Banks with relatively lower deposits and poor asset quality transmit commodity price changes to lending more aggressively, supporting the hypothesis that the overall credit response to commodity prices works also through the credit supply channel. Our results also show that there is no significant difference in the behavior of foreign and domestic banks in the transmission process, reflecting the regional footprint of foreign banks in developing countries.




The Handbook of Post Crisis Financial Modelling


Book Description

The 2008 financial crisis was a watershed moment which clearly influenced the public's perception of the role of 'finance' in society. Since 2008, a plethora of books and newspaper articles have been produced accusing the academic community of being unable to produce valid models which can accommodate those extreme events. This unique Handbook brings together leading practitioners and academics in the areas of banking, mathematics, and law to present original research on the key issues affecting financial modelling since the 2008 financial crisis. As well as exploring themes of distributional assumptions and efficiency the Handbook also explores how financial modelling can possibly be re-interpreted in light of the 2008 crisis.




The World of Forking Paths


Book Description

This report details the divergent paths that the world economy may take and their potential effects on Latin America and the Caribbean. Scenarios are constructed employing a modeling exercise that captures the trade, financial and other linkages between the region and the rest of the world. While vulnerabilities remain and external shocks have been and remain critical, the region enjoys many strengths and has developed a growing arsenal of policy tools. What is the balance of vulnerabilities versus strengths? How can countries address the existing vulnerabilities? How can they perfect their policy tools and minimize the effect of external crises?




Determinants and Effects of Countries’ External Capital Structure: A Firm-Level Analysis


Book Description

In this paper, we investigate whether a firm’s composition of foreign liabilities matters for their resilience during economic turmoil and examine which characteristics determine a firm’s foreign capital structure. Using firm-level data, we corroborate previous findings from the (international) macroeconomic literature that the composition of foreign liabilities matters for a country’s susceptibility to external shocks. We find that firms with a positive equity share in their foreign liabilities were less affected by the global financial crisis and also less likely to default in the aftermath of the crisis. In addition, we show that larger, more open, and more productive firms tend to have a higher equity share in total foreign liabilities.




The Great Cross-Border Bank Deleveraging


Book Description

International banks greatly reduced their direct cross-border and local affiliates’ lending as the global financial crisis strained balance sheets, lowered borrower demand, and changed government policies. Using bilateral, lender-borrower countrydata and controlling for credit demand, we show that reductions largely varied in line with markets’ prior assessments of banks’ vulnerabilities, with banks’ financial statement variables and lender-borrower country characteristics playing minor roles. We find evidence that moving resources within banking groups became more restricted as drivers of reductions in direct cross-border loans differ from those for local affiliates’ lending, especially for impaired banking systems. Home bias induced by government interventions, however, affected both equally.




Foreign Banks and Credit Dynamics in CESEE


Book Description

We use bank-level data on 16 CESEE economies over 2005-2014 to assess the role of foreign banks in the region’s credit dynamics. We confirm that macroeconomic fundamentals of both host and home countries matter, as do the bank and parent bank characteristics. Moreover, we take a new approach by studying the drivers of differential credit growth between parent banks and their foreign subsidiaries. Host country macroeconomic fundamentals cease to play a significant role, while bank-level characteristics and in particular parent bank-level characteristics remain important. From policymakers’ perspective, the paper provides further empirical evidence on the importance of monitoring the health of foreign parent banks as well as the potential regulatory changes in their home jurisdictions.




Rebalancing Economies in Financially Integrating East Asia


Book Description

Since the Asian Financial Crisis (AFC) of 1997–98 large current account surpluses have accumulated in the countries of Asia and the Pacific with corresponding deficits elsewhere. The sharp plunge in global trade volumes during the global financial crisis has highlighted the need for ‘rebalancing’–focussing more on domestic sources of economic growth than on exports in some Asian economies. One key objective of the book is to elucidate the economic structures and policies that give rise to current account surpluses and imbalances and consider what policy adjustments could change them. Another objective is to show the link between financial systems, financial integration and the transmission of economic shocks between countries. The book offers new dimensions to understand ‘rebalancing’ and provides alternative and arguably more fundamental solutions to address imbalances. Rather than focusing on exchange rate misalignment, this book begins from the premise that the imbalances are a macroeconomic problem that reflects a mismatch between savings and investment in the surplus countries. Then, it examines exchange rate policies adopted by countries in the region and finds that part of the explanation for their currency strategy lies in their perceived need to build foreign exchange reserves to provide a buffer in case of instabilities. The book examines whether there are other possibilities for countries to insure against economic volatility by more actively and openly engaging with international capital markets. The studies show that closer financial integration, involving more open financial markets, with well-chosen partners, would be welfare-improving and should reduce the need for the counter-productive, self-insurance policies that result in foreign exchange accumulation.




Foreign Banks and the Vienna Initiative


Book Description

We use data on 1,294 banks in Central and Eastern Europe to analyze how bank ownership and creditor coordination in the form of the Vienna Initiative affected credit growth during the 2008–09 crisis. As part of the Vienna Initiative western European banks signed country-specific commitment letters in which they pledged to maintain exposures and to support their subsidiaries in Central and Eastern Europe. We show that both domestic and foreign banks sharply curtailed credit during the crisis, but that foreign banks that participated in the Vienna Initiative were relatively stable lenders. We find no evidence of negative spillovers from countries where banks signed commitment letters to countries where they did not.