Econometric Forecasting and High-frequency Data Analysis


Book Description

This important book consists of surveys of high-frequency financial data analysis and econometric forecasting, written by pioneers in these areas including Nobel laureate Lawrence Klein. Some of the chapters were presented as tutorials to an audience in the Econometric Forecasting and High-Frequency Data Analysis Workshop at the Institute for Mathematical Science, National University of Singapore in May 2006. They will be of interest to researchers working in macroeconometrics as well as financial econometrics. Moreover, readers will find these chapters useful as a guide to the literature as well as suggestions for future research. Sample Chapter(s). Foreword (32 KB). Chapter 1: Forecast Uncertainty, Its Representation and Evaluation* (97 KB). Contents: Forecasting Uncertainty, Its Representation and Evaluation (K F Wallis); The University of Pennsylvania Models for High-Frequency Macroeconomic Modeling (L R Klein & S Ozmucur); Forecasting Seasonal Time Series (P H Franses); Car and Affine Processes (C Gourieroux); Multivariate Time Series Analysis and Forecasting (M Deistler). Readership: Professionals and researchers in econometric forecasting and financial data analysis.




Configural Frequency Analysis


Book Description

Configural Frequency Analysis (CFA) provides an up-to-the-minute comprehensive introduction to its techniques, models, and applications. Written in a formal yet accessible style, actual empirical data examples are used to illustrate key concepts. Step-by-step program sequences are used to show readers how to employ CFA methods using commercial software packages, such as SAS, SPSS, SYSTAT, S-Plus, or those written specifically to perform CFA. CFA is an important method for analyzing results involved with categorical and longitudinal data. It allows one to answer the question of whether individual cells or groups of cells of cross-classifications differ significantly from expectations. The expectations are calculated using methods employed in log-linear modeling or a priori information. It is the only statistical method that allows one to make statements about empty areas in the data space. Applied and or person-oriented researchers, statisticians, and advanced students interested in CFA and categorical and longitudinal data will find this book to be a valuable resource. Developed since 1969, this method is now used by a large number of researchers around the world in a variety of disciplines, including psychology, education, medicine, and sociology. Configural Frequency Analysis will serve as an excellent text for courses on configural frequency analysis, categorical variable analysis, or analysis of contingency tables. Prerequisites include an understanding of descriptive statistics, hypothesis testing, statistical model fitting, and some understanding of categorical data analysis and matrix algebra.




An Introduction to High-Frequency Finance


Book Description

Liquid markets generate hundreds or thousands of ticks (the minimum change in price a security can have, either up or down) every business day. Data vendors such as Reuters transmit more than 275,000 prices per day for foreign exchange spot rates alone. Thus, high-frequency data can be a fundamental object of study, as traders make decisions by observing high-frequency or tick-by-tick data. Yet most studies published in financial literature deal with low frequency, regularly spaced data. For a variety of reasons, high-frequency data are becoming a way for understanding market microstructure. This book discusses the best mathematical models and tools for dealing with such vast amounts of data.This book provides a framework for the analysis, modeling, and inference of high frequency financial time series. With particular emphasis on foreign exchange markets, as well as currency, interest rate, and bond futures markets, this unified view of high frequency time series methods investigates the price formation process and concludes by reviewing techniques for constructing systematic trading models for financial assets.




Research Methods and Statistics


Book Description

This innovative text offers a completely integrated approach to teaching research methods and statistics by presenting a research question accompanied by the appropriate methods and statistical procedures needed to address it. Research questions and designs become more complex as chapters progress, building on simpler questions to reinforce student learning. Using a conversational style and research examples from published works, this comprehensive book walks readers through the entire research process and includes ample pedagogical support for SPSS, Excel, and APA style.




Foundations of Time-Frequency Analysis


Book Description

Time-frequency analysis is a modern branch of harmonic analysis. It com prises all those parts of mathematics and its applications that use the struc ture of translations and modulations (or time-frequency shifts) for the anal ysis of functions and operators. Time-frequency analysis is a form of local Fourier analysis that treats time and frequency simultaneously and sym metrically. My goal is a systematic exposition of the foundations of time-frequency analysis, whence the title of the book. The topics range from the elemen tary theory of the short-time Fourier transform and classical results about the Wigner distribution via the recent theory of Gabor frames to quantita tive methods in time-frequency analysis and the theory of pseudodifferential operators. This book is motivated by applications in signal analysis and quantum mechanics, but it is not about these applications. The main ori entation is toward the detailed mathematical investigation of the rich and elegant structures underlying time-frequency analysis. Time-frequency analysis originates in the early development of quantum mechanics by H. Weyl, E. Wigner, and J. von Neumann around 1930, and in the theoretical foundation of information theory and signal analysis by D.




Regional Frequency Analysis


Book Description

This book is the first complete account of the L-moment approach to regional frequency analysis of environmental extremes.




High-Frequency Financial Econometrics


Book Description

A comprehensive introduction to the statistical and econometric methods for analyzing high-frequency financial data High-frequency trading is an algorithm-based computerized trading practice that allows firms to trade stocks in milliseconds. Over the last fifteen years, the use of statistical and econometric methods for analyzing high-frequency financial data has grown exponentially. This growth has been driven by the increasing availability of such data, the technological advancements that make high-frequency trading strategies possible, and the need of practitioners to analyze these data. This comprehensive book introduces readers to these emerging methods and tools of analysis. Yacine Aït-Sahalia and Jean Jacod cover the mathematical foundations of stochastic processes, describe the primary characteristics of high-frequency financial data, and present the asymptotic concepts that their analysis relies on. Aït-Sahalia and Jacod also deal with estimation of the volatility portion of the model, including methods that are robust to market microstructure noise, and address estimation and testing questions involving the jump part of the model. As they demonstrate, the practical importance and relevance of jumps in financial data are universally recognized, but only recently have econometric methods become available to rigorously analyze jump processes. Aït-Sahalia and Jacod approach high-frequency econometrics with a distinct focus on the financial side of matters while maintaining technical rigor, which makes this book invaluable to researchers and practitioners alike.




Configural Frequency Analysis


Book Description

This unique book provides a comprehensive and detailed coverage of configural frequency analysis (CFA), the most useful method of analysis of categorical data in person-oriented research. It presents the foundations, methods, and models of CFA and features numerous empirical data examples from a range of disciplines that can be reproduced by the readers. It also addresses computer applications, including relevant R packages and modules. Configural frequency analysis is a statistical method that allows the processing of important and interesting questions in categorical data. The perspective of CFA differs from the usual perspective of relations among variables; its focus is on patterns of variable categories that stand out with respect to specific hypotheses, and as such, CFA allows for testing numerous substantive hypotheses. The book describes the origins of CFA and their relation to chi-square analysis as well as the developments that are based on log-linear modeling. The models covered range from simple models of variable independence to complex models that are needed when causal hypotheses are tested. Empirical data examples are provided for each model. New models are introduced for person-oriented mediation analysis and locally optimized time series analysis, and new results concerning the characteristics of CFA methods are bolstered using Monte Carlo simulations. Primarily intended for researchers and students in the social and behavioral sciences, the book will also appeal to anyone who deals with categorical data from a person-centered perspective.




Econometrics of Financial High-Frequency Data


Book Description

The availability of financial data recorded on high-frequency level has inspired a research area which over the last decade emerged to a major area in econometrics and statistics. The growing popularity of high-frequency econometrics is driven by technological progress in trading systems and an increasing importance of intraday trading, liquidity risk, optimal order placement as well as high-frequency volatility. This book provides a state-of-the art overview on the major approaches in high-frequency econometrics, including univariate and multivariate autoregressive conditional mean approaches for different types of high-frequency variables, intensity-based approaches for financial point processes and dynamic factor models. It discusses implementation details, provides insights into properties of high-frequency data as well as institutional settings and presents applications to volatility and liquidity estimation, order book modelling and market microstructure analysis.