The Anti-Bubbles


Book Description

The Anti-Bubbles is a contrarian framework that challenges the status quo and complacency of Global Markets towards the false belief/misconception that central banks and governments are infallible and in full control. A forward-looking analysis of the opportunities, risks, and unintended consequences associated with testing the limits of monetary policy, testing the limits of credit markets, and testing the limits of fiat currencies. This book presents both sides of the story, including Larry Summer’s “prudent imprudence for fiscal expansion”, George Soros’ “reflexivity theory applied to monetary policy”, Mohamed El-Erian ́s “T-juction and diplomatic neutrality”, along the “Lehman Squared” and “Gold ́s Perfect Storm” investment theses, and coins innovative ideas such as “anti-bubbles”, “the acronyms”, or “monetary supercycle”, which join a series of innovative concepts such as “The Flattening of the Energy World”, “The Energy Broadband”, or “The Battle for Supply”, from Diego ́s first book.




Political Bubbles


Book Description

How governmental failure led to the 2008 financial crisis—and what needs to be done to avoid another similar event Behind every financial crisis lurks a "political bubble"—policy biases that foster market behaviors leading to financial instability. Rather than tilting against risky behavior, political bubbles—arising from a potent combination of beliefs, institutions, and interests—aid, abet, and amplify risk. Demonstrating how political bubbles helped create the real estate-generated financial bubble and the 2008 financial crisis, this book argues that similar government oversights in the aftermath of the crisis undermined Washington's response to the "popped" financial bubble, and shows how such patterns have occurred repeatedly throughout US history. The authors show that just as financial bubbles are an unfortunate mix of mistaken beliefs, market imperfections, and greed, political bubbles are the product of rigid ideologies, unresponsive and ineffective government institutions, and special interests. Financial market innovations—including adjustable-rate mortgages, mortgage-backed securities, and credit default swaps—become subject to legislated leniency and regulatory failure, increasing hazardous practices. The authors shed important light on the politics that blinds regulators to the economic weaknesses that create the conditions for economic bubbles and recommend simple, focused rules that should help avoid such crises in the future. The first full accounting of how politics produces financial ruptures, Political Bubbles offers timely lessons that all sectors would do well to heed.




Famous First Bubbles


Book Description

The jargon of economics and finance contains numerous colorful terms for market-asset prices at odds with any reasonable economic explanation. Examples include "bubble," "tulipmania," "chain letter," "Ponzi scheme," "panic," "crash," "herding," and "irrational exuberance." Although such a term suggests that an event is inexplicably crowd-driven, what it really means, claims Peter Garber, is that we have grasped a near-empty explanation rather than expend the effort to understand the event. In this book Garber offers market-fundamental explanations for the three most famous bubbles: the Dutch Tulipmania (1634-1637), the Mississippi Bubble (1719-1720), and the closely connected South Sea Bubble (1720). He focuses most closely on the Tulipmania because it is the event that most modern observers view as clearly crazy. Comparing the pattern of price declines for initially rare eighteenth-century bulbs to that of seventeenth-century bulbs, he concludes that the extremely high prices for rare bulbs and their rapid decline reflects normal pricing behavior. In the cases of the Mississippi and South Sea Bubbles, he describes the asset markets and financial manipulations involved in these episodes and casts them as market fundamentals.




Are Filter Bubbles Real?


Book Description

There has been much concern over the impact of partisan echo chambers and filter bubbles on public debate. Is this concern justified, or is it distracting us from more serious issues? Axel Bruns argues that the influence of echo chambers and filter bubbles has been severely overstated, and results from a broader moral panic about the role of online and social media in society. Our focus on these concepts, and the widespread tendency to blame platforms and their algorithms for political disruptions, obscure far more serious issues pertaining to the rise of populism and hyperpolarisation in democracies. Evaluating the evidence for and against echo chambers and filter bubbles, Bruns offers a persuasive argument for why we should shift our focus to more important problems. This timely book is essential reading for students and scholars, as well as anyone concerned about challenges to public debate and the democratic process.




Law, Bubbles, and Financial Regulation


Book Description

Financial regulation can fail when it is needed the most. The dynamics of asset price bubbles weaken financial regulation just as financial markets begin to overheat and the risk of crisis spikes. At the same time, the failure of financial regulations adds further fuel to a bubble. This book examines the interaction of bubbles and financial regulation. It explores the ways in which bubbles lead to the failure of financial regulation by outlining five dynamics, which it collectively labels the "Regulatory Instability Hypothesis." . The book concludes by outlining approaches to make financial regulation more resilient to these dynamics that undermine law.




The Energy World is Flat


Book Description

A stronger, more informed approach to the energy markets The Energy World Is Flat provides a forward-looking analysis of the energy markets and addresses the implications of their rapid transformation. Written by acknowledged expert Daniel Lacalle, who is actively engaged with energy portfolios in the financial space, this book is grounded in experience with the world of high-stakes finance, and relays a realist's perspective of the current and future state of the energy markets. Readers will be brought up to date on the latest developments in the area, and learn the strategies that allow investors to profit from these developments. An examination of the markets' history draws parallels between past and current shifts, and a discussion of technological advancements helps readers understand the issues driving these changes. Energy has always been at the forefront of the economic agenda, being both the key to and a driver for development and growth. Its centrality to the world of finance makes it imperative for investors and analysts to understand the energy markets, irrespective of where on the wide range of energy spectrum observers they fall. The Energy World Is Flat is a guide to the past, present, and future of these crucial markets, and the strategies that make them profitable. These include: Understanding the state of the energy markets, including key developments and changes Discovering the ten pillars of a successful energy investment strategy Reviewing the history of the energy markets to put recent changes into perspective Learning which technologies are driving the changes, and how it will affect investors The recent energy market changes were both unexpected and so fundamental in nature that they represent a true shift in the energy macro- and microeconomic landscape. Investors and analysts seeking a stronger approach to these markets need the expert guidance provided by The Energy World Is Flat.




The Science of Soap Films and Soap Bubbles


Book Description

Superb treatment of molecular and macroscopic properties of soap films and bubbles, emphasizing solutions of physical problems. Over 120 black-and-white illustrations, 41 color photographs.




The Statistical Mechanics of Financial Markets


Book Description

The present third edition of The Statistical Mechanics of Financial Markets is published only four years after the ?rst edition. The success of the book highlights the interest in a summary of the broad research activities on the application of statistical physics to ?nancial markets. I am very grateful to readers and reviewers for their positive reception and comments. Why then prepare a new edition instead of only reprinting and correcting the second edition? The new edition has been signi?cantly expanded, giving it a more pr- tical twist towards banking. The most important extensions are due to my practical experience as a risk manager in the German Savings Banks’ As- ciation (DSGV): Two new chapters on risk management and on the closely related topic of economic and regulatory capital for ?nancial institutions, - spectively, have been added. The chapter on risk management contains both the basics as well as advanced topics, e. g. coherent risk measures, which have not yet reached the statistical physics community interested in ?nancial m- kets. Similarly, it is surprising how little research by academic physicists has appeared on topics relating to Basel II. Basel II is the new capital adequacy framework which will set the standards in risk management in many co- tries for the years to come. Basel II is responsible for many job openings in banks for which physicists are extemely well quali?ed. For these reasons, an outline of Basel II takes a major part of the chapter on capital.




The Logistic Map and the Route to Chaos


Book Description

Pierre-Francois Verhulst, with his seminal work using the logistic map to describe population growth and saturation, paved the way for the many applications of this tool in modern mathematics, physics, chemistry, biology, economics and sociology. Indeed nowadays the logistic map is considered a useful and paradigmatic showcase for the route leading to chaos. This volume gathers contributions from some of the leading specialists in the field to present a state-of-the art view of the many ramifications of the developments initiated by Verhulst over a century ago.




Space-time Chaos


Book Description

This book provides a comprehensive overview of the topics related to characterization, control and synchronization of complex spatiotemporal phenomena, from both a theoretical and an experimental point of view. It describes applications of these processes in applied mathematics, signal analysis, nonlinear optics, fluid dynamics, chemical reactions, electronic circuits, etc.