The Dot-com Bubble, the Bush Deficits, and the U.S. Current Account


Book Description

The authors challenge this view here and develop two alternative interpretations. Both are based on the notion that a bubble (the "dot-com" bubble) has been driving the stock market, but differ in their assumptions about the interactions between this bubble and fiscal policy (the "Bush" deficits). The "benevolent" view holds that a change in investor sentiment led to the collapse of the dot-com bubble and the Bush deficits were a welfare-improving policy response to this event. The "cynical" view holds instead that the Bush deficits led to the collapse of the dot-com bubble as the new administration tried to appropriate rents from foreign investors. The authors discuss the implications of each of these views for the future evolution of the U.S. economy and, in particular, its net foreign asset position."




Is the U.S. Trade Deficit Sustainable?


Book Description

The global financial crisis of 1997-98 and the widening US trade deficit have precipitated fresh inquiry into a set of perennial questions about global integration and the US economy. How has global integration affected US producers and workers, and overall growth and inflation? Is a chronic and widening deficit sustainable, or will the dollar crash, perhaps taking the economy with it? If the problem was one of "twin deficits," as many thought, why has the trade deficit continued to grow even as the budget deficit narrowed to zero? If US companies are so competitive, why does the trade deficit persist? Is the trade deficit a result of protectionism abroad? Will it lead to protectionism at home? What role do international capital markets have? Each chapter presents relevant data and a simple analytical framework as the basis for concise discussions of these major issues. The final section of the book provides an outlook for the deficit and suggests alternative policy courses for dealing with it. This book is designed for policymakers and others who are interested in the US role in the world economy. It is also suitable for courses in international economics, business, and international affairs.




NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2004


Book Description

The NBER Macroeconomics Annual presents pioneering work in macroeconomics by leading academic researchers addressed to a broad audience of public policymakers as well as to the academic community. Each paper is followed by comments and discussion to give a more complete context for the views expressed. The 2004 edition features a range of papers aimed at providing coherent and informative answers to such important questions as the effect of federal government debt on interest rates; the stochastic dimension of the American economy; the role of technology as a source of economic fluctuations; and the interaction of capital flows, fiscal policy, and monetary policies in developing countries, emerging markets, and OECD countries.







Global Waves of Debt


Book Description

The global economy has experienced four waves of rapid debt accumulation over the past 50 years. The first three debt waves ended with financial crises in many emerging market and developing economies. During the current wave, which started in 2010, the increase in debt in these economies has already been larger, faster, and broader-based than in the previous three waves. Current low interest rates mitigate some of the risks associated with high debt. However, emerging market and developing economies are also confronted by weak growth prospects, mounting vulnerabilities, and elevated global risks. A menu of policy options is available to reduce the likelihood that the current debt wave will end in crisis and, if crises do take place, will alleviate their impact.




National Saving


Book Description




Negative Interest Rate Policy (NIRP)


Book Description

More than two years ago the European Central Bank (ECB) adopted a negative interest rate policy (NIRP) to achieve its price stability objective. Negative interest rates have so far supported easier financial conditions and contributed to a modest expansion in credit, demonstrating that the zero lower bound is less binding than previously thought. However, interest rate cuts also weigh on bank profitability. Substantial rate cuts may at some point outweigh the benefits from higher asset values and stronger aggregate demand. Further monetary accommodation may need to rely more on credit easing and an expansion of the ECB’s balance sheet rather than substantial additional reductions in the policy rate.




The Effectiveness of Fiscal Policy in Stimulating Economic Activity


Book Description

This paper reviews the theoretical and empirical literature on the effectiveness of fiscal policy. The focus is on the size of fiscal multipliers, and on the possibility that multipliers can turn negative (i.e., that fiscal contractions can be expansionary). The paper concludes that fiscal multipliers are overwhelmingly positive but small. However, there is some evidence of negative fiscal multipliers.




The Ten Trillion Dollar Gamble: The Coming Deficit Debacle and How to Invest Now


Book Description

The next economic storm and how to prepare for it--from a top decision-maker at BlackRock An economic calamity is already looming on the horizon, and it's going hit the U.S. on a scale equal to the recent mortgage meltdown and liquidity crisis of 2008-2009. In February, President Obama announced that the 2010 budget deficit would surpass $1.5 trillion, an amount greater than the total debt of our nation in its first 200 years of its existence. And things only get worse from here: between 2010 and 2019, America will add one trillion of additional debt every year. In The Ten Trillion Dollar Gamble, Russ Koesterich, who manages over $100 billion for the world's largest money management company, offers compelling evidence supporting his prediction that the global economy is on the verge of more, even greater upheaval and provides his unique insight into: The structural weaknesses underlying the economic meltdown Why commodities will be so important in the next economic climate Likely ramifications to the real estate market The best stocks to buy and which ones to avoid Today's investing strategies will be rendered useless in the next storm's wake. Written by one of the most qualified people in the business, The Ten Trillion Dollar Gamble offers a plan for protecting your wealth and preserving the power of your savings. Table of Contents Chapter 1. Why Worry About the Deficit? Chapter 2. Why the Deficit Will matter to You Chapter 3. What to Watch Chapter 4. How to Manage Your Cash and Debts Chapter 5. Investing in Bonds in a Rising Rate Environment Chapter 6. Stocks to Buy and Avoid Chapter 7. Why You May Need Commodities Chapter 8. What to do with Real Estate Chapter 9. Putting it All Together Chapter 10. Conclusion: Can We avoid the budget debacle?