Exchange Rates and Prices


Book Description

The objective of this study is to provide an in-depth analysis of the exchange rate pass-through relationship, using Australian imports of manufactures as a case study. The study begins by piecing together the theoretical literature on exchange rate pass-through, to provide the basis for the development of models for the empirical analysis. To place the empirical analysis m comparative context, a critical survey of the existing empirical literature on exchange rate pass-through is then undertaken. This is followed by a review of aspects of the structure and performance of Australian manufacturing that relate to the theme of the study. Next, the data and methodology are discussed. The analysis of exchange rate pass-through is conducted in two stages. First, it seeks to establish the degree to which Australian dollar (AUD) import prices of total manufactures and 50 product categories contained therein have responded to the massive fluctuations in the AUD during the 1980s. This is done by applying an econometric procedure which avoids the pit-falls in previous studies to a carefully assembled data set. Second, the study investigates the determinants of inter-product differences in the degree of exchange rate pass-through. This is done by relating the pass-through coefficients to a series of variables representing foreign control, quantitative restrictions (QRs), product characteristics and market structure within a cross section regression framework.













Dominant Currency Paradigm: A New Model for Small Open Economies


Book Description

Most trade is invoiced in very few currencies. Despite this, the Mundell-Fleming benchmark and its variants focus on pricing in the producer’s currency or in local currency. We model instead a ‘dominant currency paradigm’ for small open economies characterized by three features: pricing in a dominant currency; pricing complementarities, and imported input use in production. Under this paradigm: (a) the terms-of-trade is stable; (b) dominant currency exchange rate pass-through into export and import prices is high regardless of destination or origin of goods; (c) exchange rate pass-through of non-dominant currencies is small; (d) expenditure switching occurs mostly via imports, driven by the dollar exchange rate while exports respond weakly, if at all; (e) strengthening of the dominant currency relative to non-dominant ones can negatively impact global trade; (f) optimal monetary policy targets deviations from the law of one price arising from dominant currency fluctuations, in addition to the inflation and output gap. Using data from Colombia we document strong support for the dominant currency paradigm.