The Macroeconomic Returns of Investment in Resilience to Natural Disasters Under Climate Change: A DSGE Approach


Book Description

This paper presents a Markov switching dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model designed to evaluate the macroeconomic return of adaptation investment to natural disasters (NDs) and the impact of climate change. While the model follows the existing literature in assuming that NDs destroy a share of the public and private capital stocks and a government that can invest in adaptation at an additional cost, it adds several features that are key to the analysis, both in the near (transition) and long (steady state) terms. Those include incomplete markets, financial frictions with collateral constraints, foreign remittances, full menu of tax and government spending instruments, and endogenous climate risk premium. The model is calibrated to the case of Dominica. It finds that NDs have large and persistent negative effects on output and public finances. It also shows that adaptation investment has large returns in terms of private investment, employment, output and tax revenue in the long term, especially under climate change.







Climate Change Challenges and Opportunities in Latin America and the Caribbean


Book Description

The analysis in the book suggests that LAC countries are facing substantial challenges related to climate change but have tools at their disposal to seize the opportunities that the climate change presents. To maximize opportunities and minimize the risks LAC countries will need to improve flexibility and adaptability of their economies. Policies aimed at supporting the reallocation of labor and capital across sectors, investing in basic skills and human capital, improving transparency and economic governance to encourage investment in technology and know-how, and creating fiscal space to manage the climate transition would help LAC countries position themselves to take advantage of the opportunities afforded by the climate transition.




Towards Climate Resilience and Neutrality in Latin America and the Caribbean Key Policy Priorities


Book Description

This report identifies LAC countries’ main climate change policy priorities, which were discussed through a series of Regional Policy Dialogues and Expert Workshops and complements these with findings of recent analyses by the OECD and other international partners. It explores issues related to their implementation on climate adaptation, mitigation, and cross-cutting policy areas.




Belize


Book Description

Belize: Selected Issues




Peru


Book Description

Peru: Selected Issues




Jamaica


Book Description

Jamaica has built a strong track record of investing in institutions and prioritizing macroeconomic stability. This aided the country to adapt to the difficult global environment of the past few years. The authorities provided targeted support to the economy during the pandemic but promptly scaled it back as conditions normalized. Similarly, in the wake of the war in Ukraine, domestic food and energy prices were left to adjust to shifts in international markets while targeted support was provided to the poor. The economy is expected to continue its post-COVID recovery, with inflation returning to the central bank’s target range by end-2023. The outlook is subject to downside risks from potential new COVID waves, higher commodity prices, a global slowdown, and tighter than expected global financial conditions.




Climate and Cross-Border Migration


Book Description

Our work is positioned at the intersection of migration and climate change—two key forces shaping the economic outlook of many countries. The analysis explores: (i) the relative importance of origincountry vs destination-country factors in explaining migration patterns; (ii) importance of climate disasters as driver of cross-border migration; and (iii) the importance of climate-driven migration on the overall impact of climate on macroeconomic outcomes. It arrives at the following main findings. First, both origin-country and destination-country contribute to explaining migration outflows from EMDEs, although only the global shocks seem important for advanced economies. Second, climate disasters are important for explaining the origincountry migration shocks in LICs and EMDEs, are especially relevant for smaller countries, and lead to migration of both genders, albeit relatively more for males out of LICs. Third, important portion of climate’s overall impact on economic outcomes—especially agricultural GDP, remittances, and inequality—is captured via climate-driven migration. Finally, higher investment in climate-resilient infrastructure can reduce the impact of climate on cross-border migration, and thereby, result in potentially important economic gains.




St. Kitts and Nevis


Book Description

Selected Issues




Fiscal Policies for Development and Climate Action


Book Description

This report provides actionable advice on how to design and implement fiscal policies for both development and climate action. Building on more than two decades of research in development and environmental economics, it argues that well-designed environmental tax reforms are especially valuable in developing countries, where they can reduce emissions, increase domestic revenues, and generate positive welfare effects such as cleaner water, safer roads, and improvements in human health. Moreover, these reforms need not harm competitiveness. New empirical evidence from Indonesia and Mexico suggests that under certain conditions, raising fuel prices can actually increase firm productivity. Finally, the report discusses the role of fiscal policy in strengthening resilience to climate change. It provides evidence that preventive public investments and measures to build fiscal buffers can help safeguard stability and growth in the face of rising climate risks. In this way, environmental tax reforms and climate risk-management strategies can lay the much-needed fiscal foundation for development and climate action.